Good write up. However, it appears to be based on an underlying and unfortunate stereotypical assumption that the Chinese are dumb and incompetent, that they have no intelligence apparatus to know what exactly is going on in Taiwan or with Taiwan and Singapore, the US or other countries. These are the same stereotypical assumptions the British empire held about the Japanese before they were trashed to bits by them (the Japanese).
Through HUMINT (its agents posing as businessmen, journalists, etc) in Singapore, Taiwan and other countries, as well as other forms of intelligence gathering, China's intelligence and security apparatus, the Ministry of State Security, knows exactly what is going on in Taiwan, the number of Singaporean/foreign troops, equipment, frequency, type of training, etc.
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U are probably right. But look at the first picture above. Can you tell that these vehicles are Terrex under the tarp and the way they are packed? There is no way. I probably know more about armour then anyone on this forum, and I can't tell whether they are terrex, or clouded leopard, are a russian BMP under the cover. So u are HKG customs and u have a manifest in front of you that says they are Terrex from singapore and being shipped to singapore. The paperwork and documentation might be incomplete on this as there is some allusion to that from the PAP. My understanding is that in prior shipments, all documents was prepared by experienced staff at APL Kintetsu, and they were retrenched when the French bought NOL. So, you are Hong Kong customs and it only makes sense to unload them and check to make sure. While u are taking off the tarp, you see the taiwanese military markings. They must thinking shit, this shipment is from taiwan, the vehicles have taiwanese military markings, and this half ass paperwork in front of us is real or not? Even without Chinese intelligence's involvement, this would have already made HKG suspicious on its own, suspicious enough to hold on to it. That is what I am saying.
probably when Beijing was informed, they must have thought to use this incident to send a message to singapore, and ordered HKG to hold on to them. It was a godsend for the Chinese as now, through some action by the HKG authorities, and not initiated by them, they have now the means to make hay while the sun shines. It would not surprised me to find out that the chinese were as shocked as the PAP by the actions of HKG. The Terrexes were seized on Nov 23rd, the first statements about it were in a routine chinese briefing 2 days later. if beijing had premeditated the whole thing, they would have had a strongly worded prepared statement within a few hours of the seizure, and they did not.
This is from a Straits Times article:
At a routine press briefing on Friday (Nov 25), the ministry's spokesman Geng Shuang said China is currently verifying the related details when asked if Singapore has to contact the Chinese Foreign Ministry for the release of the vehicles.
The chinese might be acting coy when they say they are verifying details of the seizure, but as i said, maybe they were caught by surprise too. which brings me to the title of the post. I mean if Beijing planned this whole thing from the start, why would they still be verifying stuff 2 days later? That is why I said It was an accident and case of mistaken identity.