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- Jul 18, 2014
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- 113
I mentioned TJS because he is his proposer for this PE, so theoretically TJS' votes will be transferred to TKL.
The opposition votes are around 40%, but NKS will not get too much. In fact, those who voted for TT the last time, if they do not want another Indian President but still want to vote for PAP will consider NKS. So NKS will split the votes of Tharman.
And you are right. A substantial share of TCB votes will go to TKL.
NKS will not get women votes because of his FB sticking around.
Interesting. If you recall, HSK has mentioned on 2020 that S'pore is not ready for an Indian Prime Minister, which was a controversial but factual comment.
https://mothership.sg/2020/07/heng-swee-keat-non-chinese-pm-no-offence/
I think PM endorse Tharman as president with a mistaken believe that we have two past presidents who are also An Nehs (Nathan and Devan Nair) and Tharman has done well in last GE in Jurong GRC so Sinkies should have no problem to accept him and he will confirm win the PE.
But I believe he is quite mistaken. Although Tharman has gotten good support at Jurong GRC and also with calls for him to be PM, but in recent years even Tharman's Jurong GRC at GE 2020 has lost a significant amount of voteshare dropping from 79 to 74% but that is only for a GRC. Running for president is a completely different ballgame.
Most importantly, past two Ah Neh presidents are all walkovers, LOL and ground sentiment is such that people are damn dulan with seeing PAP or establishment candidates taking the helm and want to vote for change.
Bearing in mind that this time round is a three corner vs previous 4 corner one, it is essentially a 2 Estab vs Independent fight.
Actually GG out is a deep blessing in disguise for we do not know him well, although he claims to be not 'affiliated' to any political party, but he is a shrewed businessman and once becomes president, this suaku Jiuhu Sai might keesiao become a puppet to PAP whereas we know TKL well enough for so many years about his stand as a middle ground and gripes against PAP policies amongst many proposals for the commoners.
Judging from last PE 2011 results, my prediction is that Tharman will do better than Tony Tan definitely as follows:
Tharman - 35-40%
Tan Kin Lian - 50-55%
Ng Kok Song - 5%-15% the most
Why I give NKS so low votes is simple, who the fark knows who is NKS all these years? Except that his cock is belly song with a young wife? So this fellow, a fly-by night candidate even worse than George Goh whom has done all the early prep years in advance.
As can see below, TKL will likely kope all voteshares from TJS and at least 50% from TCB can form about 47% (5 + 25 + 17) already.