<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR>Decline in S'pore exports slows
</TR><!-- headline one : end --><TR>May's modest recovery leads some analysts to predict Dec expansion </TR><!-- Author --><TR><TD class="padlrt8 georgia11 darkgrey bold" colSpan=2>By Alvin Foo
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Pharmaceutical exports surged 40.2 per cent last month, against the previous year, following a 41.6 per cent jump in April. But the volatility of the sector has given economists cause for concern regarding the sustainability of the recovery. -- ST PHOTO: ALPHONSUS CHERN
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<!-- START OF : div id="storytext"--><!-- more than 4 paragraphs -->SINGAPORE exports for May have posted the smallest year-on-year decline since September last year, in the latest sign that the recession seems to be easing.
The modest improvement in this vital trade sector has led some economists to predict monthly exports could expand - when compared to the same month a year earlier - by December this year.
<TABLE width=200 align=left valign="top"><TBODY><TR><TD class=padr8><!-- Vodcast --><!-- Background Story -->RELATED LINKS
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WORST OVER
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>It has also fuelled growing optimism that the overall Singapore economy will achieve growth in the current second quarter over the previous quarter.
Last month, non-oil domestic exports contracted 12.1 per cent from a year earlier, according to the latest figures released by trade agency International Enterprise (IE) Singapore yesterday.
Although this was the 13th month of decline, it was better than the 14 per cent slump tipped by economists in a Reuters poll. It was also an improvement over the 19.2 per cent slump seen in April.
Mr David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics, said: 'The worst of the downturn is behind us. However, the question which remains is just how strong the recovery will be, due to the uncertainty regarding the strength of the rebound in the US and Europe.'
Month-on-month, May's exports rose 5.6 per cent over the previous month's figures after seasonal adjustment. This was also better than expected.
By contrast, April saw a month-on-month slide of 1.4 per cent.
HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said: 'Evidence of a fledgling recovery in Singapore exports and industry is growing.'
Last month, the local manufacturing sector also showed signs of a turnaround.
According to the latest Purchasing Managers' Index, released two weeks ago, factory output increased for the first time since August last year due to more orders and higher inventory levels.
However, the export story in other key Asian economies last month is still weak.
South Korean exports sank more than expected, while Taiwan's exports fell by almost a third from a year earlier, even though this grim figure was slightly better than predicted.
In Singapore, electronics exports contracted sharply but at a slower pace last month. They plunged 21.8per cent, faring slightly better than the 25.6per cent dive seen in April.
Non-electronics shipments, which include pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals, fell 5.6 per cent - an improvement over the 14.8 per cent contraction in April.
The brightest spark came from the volatile pharma exports, which surged 40.2 per cent compared to the previous year after jumping 41.6 per cent in April.
However, its central role in the recent export improvement has left economists with cause for concern.
Mr Prior-Wandesforde said: 'The pharmaceuticals sector has played a significant role in the recent export and industrial improvement, which, given its volatility, must make one a little nervous about the sustainability of the recovery.'
Non-oil shipments to all of Singapore's top 10 markets save for Taiwan and South Korea fell. The largest contributors to the slump were the United States, Malaysia and Japan.
Notable improvements were seen in non-oil exports to the European Union, South Korea and India.
Overall, economists still tip a bumpy ride to full recovery, but say the worst is over.
Citigroup's Mr Kit Wei Zheng said that exports are 'likely to continue improving from here on', but cautioned that 'improvements are unlikely to take place in a straight line, with likely fluctuations in the monthly data'.
The improved data has led economists to anticipate rosier second-quarter gross domestic product numbers.
CIMB-GK's Mr Song Seng Wun said: 'Second-quarter GDP could look pretty impressive from a quarter-on-quarter basis due to a big improvement in pharma and a smaller rate of contraction for electronics.'
Mr Cohen tipped Singapore's full-year economic growth figure to be 'well on track' to coming within the Government's range of a minus 6 per cent to minus 9 per cent contraction, probably 'at the stronger end of the range'. [email protected]
</TR><!-- headline one : end --><TR>May's modest recovery leads some analysts to predict Dec expansion </TR><!-- Author --><TR><TD class="padlrt8 georgia11 darkgrey bold" colSpan=2>By Alvin Foo
</TD></TR><!-- show image if available --><TR vAlign=bottom><TD width=330>
</TD><TD width=10>
Pharmaceutical exports surged 40.2 per cent last month, against the previous year, following a 41.6 per cent jump in April. But the volatility of the sector has given economists cause for concern regarding the sustainability of the recovery. -- ST PHOTO: ALPHONSUS CHERN
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- START OF : div id="storytext"--><!-- more than 4 paragraphs -->SINGAPORE exports for May have posted the smallest year-on-year decline since September last year, in the latest sign that the recession seems to be easing.
The modest improvement in this vital trade sector has led some economists to predict monthly exports could expand - when compared to the same month a year earlier - by December this year.
<TABLE width=200 align=left valign="top"><TBODY><TR><TD class=padr8><!-- Vodcast --><!-- Background Story -->RELATED LINKS
<!-- Audio --><!-- Video --><!-- PDF -->
<!-- Photo Gallery -->
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>It has also fuelled growing optimism that the overall Singapore economy will achieve growth in the current second quarter over the previous quarter.
Last month, non-oil domestic exports contracted 12.1 per cent from a year earlier, according to the latest figures released by trade agency International Enterprise (IE) Singapore yesterday.
Although this was the 13th month of decline, it was better than the 14 per cent slump tipped by economists in a Reuters poll. It was also an improvement over the 19.2 per cent slump seen in April.
Mr David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics, said: 'The worst of the downturn is behind us. However, the question which remains is just how strong the recovery will be, due to the uncertainty regarding the strength of the rebound in the US and Europe.'
Month-on-month, May's exports rose 5.6 per cent over the previous month's figures after seasonal adjustment. This was also better than expected.
By contrast, April saw a month-on-month slide of 1.4 per cent.
HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said: 'Evidence of a fledgling recovery in Singapore exports and industry is growing.'
Last month, the local manufacturing sector also showed signs of a turnaround.
According to the latest Purchasing Managers' Index, released two weeks ago, factory output increased for the first time since August last year due to more orders and higher inventory levels.
However, the export story in other key Asian economies last month is still weak.
South Korean exports sank more than expected, while Taiwan's exports fell by almost a third from a year earlier, even though this grim figure was slightly better than predicted.
In Singapore, electronics exports contracted sharply but at a slower pace last month. They plunged 21.8per cent, faring slightly better than the 25.6per cent dive seen in April.
Non-electronics shipments, which include pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals, fell 5.6 per cent - an improvement over the 14.8 per cent contraction in April.
The brightest spark came from the volatile pharma exports, which surged 40.2 per cent compared to the previous year after jumping 41.6 per cent in April.
However, its central role in the recent export improvement has left economists with cause for concern.
Mr Prior-Wandesforde said: 'The pharmaceuticals sector has played a significant role in the recent export and industrial improvement, which, given its volatility, must make one a little nervous about the sustainability of the recovery.'
Non-oil shipments to all of Singapore's top 10 markets save for Taiwan and South Korea fell. The largest contributors to the slump were the United States, Malaysia and Japan.
Notable improvements were seen in non-oil exports to the European Union, South Korea and India.
Overall, economists still tip a bumpy ride to full recovery, but say the worst is over.
Citigroup's Mr Kit Wei Zheng said that exports are 'likely to continue improving from here on', but cautioned that 'improvements are unlikely to take place in a straight line, with likely fluctuations in the monthly data'.
The improved data has led economists to anticipate rosier second-quarter gross domestic product numbers.
CIMB-GK's Mr Song Seng Wun said: 'Second-quarter GDP could look pretty impressive from a quarter-on-quarter basis due to a big improvement in pharma and a smaller rate of contraction for electronics.'
Mr Cohen tipped Singapore's full-year economic growth figure to be 'well on track' to coming within the Government's range of a minus 6 per cent to minus 9 per cent contraction, probably 'at the stronger end of the range'. [email protected]
