Roy N: The imminent collapse of the PAP government

[Confuseous]

Blogger Roy Ngerng is no stranger to statistics. His blog is constantly filled with complex statistical arguments to challenge the PAP government’s claims about the good of their policy. Casually, I asked Roy what he thought the vote swing of the next general elections and Roy’s answer was that “there is actually a 50-50 chance that we would be able to form an opposition-majority of slightly more than 50% of the seats.”

He explains “in constituencies where boundaries had not been drastically modified, the PAP lost an average of 10 percentage points of their votes from 2006 to 2011. Moving forward, this is consistent with the past election from 2001 to 2006 as well as the Punggol East by-election. If the trend continues and factoring in the change of boundaries so that the PAP could favour themselves, we might see the PAP’s vote share drop from 60% to between 50% and 55%.”

While the PAP has apologised for their mistakes after the 2011 general elections, the effects are clear. Singaporeans have experienced a political awakening and are more willing to hold their leaders to a higher level of accountability. Instead, we have seen more struggles for the average Singaporean including the influx of foreigners, MRT breakdowns as well as high COE prices.

- http://chinaporean.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-imminent-collapse-of-the-pap-government/

 

[tonychat]

This Article is filled with ball-less wait for 2016 bullshit..that is why i stay away from sinkies.

 

[Agoraphobic]

Hi Tony:

An election is the formal way for people to choose the leaders they want to lead them in modern society. So far, Singaporeans have selected Papa and Anak Party, consistently. Whether you like them or not, it is the choice of the majority, and you will have to accept that. I can't imagine the people of Peesai resorting to mass protests to oust the gahmen, it is not within them, and neither will the opposition drive in that direction. This is an orderly country. The locals are happy with their char kwey teow and kai fun to want any changes to their lives. Expensive or not, Singaporeans are well-off and won't mind the prices they pay. Look how much they're willing to pay for a family sedan car.

Cheers!

This Article is filled with ball-less wait for 2016 bullshit..that is why i stay away from sinkies.

 

[enterprise2]

U know the saying..'be careful what u wish for....'

 

[Narong Wongwan]

Hi Tony:

An election is the formal way for people to choose the leaders they want to lead them in modern society. So far, Singaporeans have selected Papa and Anak Party, consistently. Whether you like them or not, it is the choice of the majority, and you will have to accept that. I can't imagine the people of Peesai resorting to mass protests to oust the gahmen, it is not within them, and neither will the opposition drive in that direction. This is an orderly country. The locals are happy with their char kwey teow and kai fun to want any changes to their lives. Expensive or not, Singaporeans are well-off and won't mind the prices they pay. Look how much they're willing to pay for a family sedan car.

Cheers!

Yes I agree with you to a certain extent. Read my sig as to how vile pap gets its 'majority'.

U know the saying..'be careful what u wish for....'

Pls spare us the same pappies voted out sky will collapse rhetoric....

 

[3_M]

Blogger Roy Ngerng is no stranger to statistics. His blog is constantly filled with complex statistical arguments to challenge the PAP government’s claims about the good of their policy. Casually, I asked Roy what he thought the vote swing of the next general elections and Roy’s answer was that “there is actually a 50-50 chance that we would be able to form an opposition-majority of slightly more than 50% of the seats.”

He explains “in constituencies where boundaries had not been drastically modified, the PAP lost an average of 10 percentage points of their votes from 2006 to 2011. Moving forward, this is consistent with the past election from 2001 to 2006 as well as the Punggol East by-election. If the trend continues and factoring in the change of boundaries so that the PAP could favour themselves, we might see the PAP’s vote share drop from 60% to between 50% and 55%.”

While the PAP has apologised for their mistakes after the 2011 general elections, the effects are clear. Singaporeans have experienced a political awakening and are more willing to hold their leaders to a higher level of accountability. Instead, we have seen more struggles for the average Singaporean including the influx of foreigners, MRT breakdowns as well as high COE prices.

- http://chinaporean.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-imminent-collapse-of-the-pap-government/

Don't think we can used such linear assumption to make projections because voter behavior are unpredictable. There will always be voters who feels comfortable in casting protest votes when they know the gov is in no danger of being overthrown but will chicken out if they sense danger for PAP. For as long as opposition don't display the ability to form the gov, largely conservative electorates will unlikely want a change of gov.

 

[Kuailan]

U know the saying..'be careful what u wish for....'

You definitely enjoyed being screwed by papaya gahmen~!

Papaya screw u on COE $85k ~ $93K for a piece shit worthless toilet paper,
Housing sky high price your children and grand children are out of reached,
stupid GST pending 10% after 2016 unless they win majority,
Pending GPS billing motorist as they travelled where got privacy to replace
the current ERP, ( ERP means Everyday Rob Peasants)

Over paying themselves, such a small island yet world highest Salary,
Obama should come work in Sinkiepore!! Obama jobs is definitely 100
times more difficult and brain cracking than mee siam mai hum! Yet he's only
paid USD$600,000.00 per annum!! wtf!

America is multi-million times larger than Sinkiepore, yet he's being paid peanut!
Look at our over loaded chia liow bee cabinet 80 of them being paid zeelion!!

 

[looneytan]

This Article is filled with ball-less wait for 2016 bullshit..that is why i stay away from sinkies.

thank you, please don't come back

 

[chowcheebye]

You definitely enjoyed being screwed by papaya gahmen~!

Papaya screw u on COE $85k ~ $93K for a piece shit worthless toilet paper,
Housing sky high price your children and grand children are out of reached,
stupid GST pending 10% after 2016 unless they win majority,
Pending GPS billing motorist as they travelled where got privacy to replace
the current ERP, ( ERP means Everyday Rob Peasants)

Over paying themselves, such a small island yet world highest Salary,
Obama should come work in Sinkiepore!! Obama jobs is definitely 100
times more difficult and brain cracking than mee siam mai hum! Yet he's only
paid USD$600,000.00 per annum!! wtf!

America is multi-million times larger than Sinkiepore, yet he's being paid peanut!
Look at our over loaded chia liow bee cabinet 80 of them being paid zeelion!!

Lau Goh "if got no $100,000 COE, if got no 10% GST, then i worry"

 

[TopSage]

Lau Goh "if got no $100,000 COE, if got no 10% GST, then i worry"

Pap lost the low income vote, now they are losing the middle income vote. The only people not affected by a 100K coe are the rich, the middle income is squeezed out and the poor see their hope of better life vanished.
....

 

[johnny333]

U know the saying..'be careful what u wish for....'

I suspect that things are already pretty bad. The only way we are going to find the real truth is when the PAP loses control of parliament.

I'm sure people want to know the truth of about how much if anything is left of the CPF . If it is bad news then we should fix the problem & move on, rather than ignore the problem.

 

[Force 136]

How many PAP politicians get "Directors's Fees"?

Corruption in disguise........

 

[Narong Wongwan]

Don't think we can used such linear assumption to make projections because voter behavior are unpredictable. There will always be voters who feels comfortable in casting protest votes when they know the gov is in no danger of being overthrown but will chicken out if they sense danger for PAP. For as long as opposition don't display the ability to form the gov, largely conservative electorates will unlikely want a change of gov.

Dun put the blame on the opposition.
Blame the pap and the dumbfuck 60.1%.
What kind of fuck government go we have now? I'll take my chances with an untested but ready to work for the good of Singapore type opposition govt anytime

 

[eErotica69]

This Article is filled with ball-less wait for 2016 bullshit..that is why i stay away from sinkies.

Chump, just fuck back to matland and endorse UMNO in 2018 to screw you again for 5 more years!

 

[eatshitndie]

walmart shelves emptied by lazy big fat losers on food stamps....

http://gma.yahoo.com/walmart-shelve...ing-spree-171042474--abc-news-topstories.html

this is what will happen when a welfare-friendly oppo party takes over governance in sg.

 

[Narong Wongwan]

walmart shelves emptied by lazy big fat losers on food stamps....

http://gma.yahoo.com/walmart-shelve...ing-spree-171042474--abc-news-topstories.html

this is what will happen when a welfare-friendly oppo party takes over governance in sg.

Hehe the usual scare monger spin tactics....
Even if that is true I rather our monies spent on welfare then as gambling capital for whore jinx or to enrich the lee dynasty.

 

[ahmad]

Sooner or later, it will collapse.

 

[tonychat]

Hi Tony:

An election is the formal way for people to choose the leaders they want to lead them in modern society. So far, Singaporeans have selected Papa and Anak Party, consistently. Whether you like them or not, it is the choice of the majority, and you will have to accept that. I can't imagine the people of Peesai resorting to mass protests to oust the gahmen, it is not within them, and neither will the opposition drive in that direction. This is an orderly country. The locals are happy with their char kwey teow and kai fun to want any changes to their lives. Expensive or not, Singaporeans are well-off and won't mind the prices they pay. Look how much they're willing to pay for a family sedan car.

Cheers!

PAP cheated in the election by redrawing the boundaries. The existent of GRC and their control of the media all makes the election unfair to their advantage...

They have no rights to redraw boundaries.

protest is the only way to throw them out fairly. i hace no respect for such sinkie self serving election.

waiting for 2016 comes from low minded coward losers such as Zeddy.

 

[zeddy]

PAP cheated in the election by redrawing the boundaries. The existent of GRC and their control of the media all makes the election unfair to their advantage...

They have no rights to redraw boundaries.

protest is the only way to throw them out fairly. i hace no respect for such sinkie self serving election.

waiting for 2016 comes from low minded coward losers such as Zeddy.

Today Public Holiday.. Will you be doing a protest outside Parliament today?

 

[zeddy]

Wah Tonychat early morning so fierce already..

So TC, how many protests against the PAP you ever did in S'pore before? Let me guess, 20 , 30, 50 protests so far by you?

Attending the Pink Dot event at Hong Lim Park never count hor..