Qualitative Assessment prior to poll - PAP, WP, NSP, SPP, RP & SDP

[BBSEE]

Yes, but certainly in a better position than in past elections when everything was on the balance without certainty.



SDA has become a circus and Desmond Lim the chief clown. He'll lose his deposit. That I take as a certainty.

My friend had to really put down his prejudice and vote SDA in the most reluctant manner after witnessing them at their rally at punggol, SDA needs to die a quick death. With such clowns as opposition, even the opposition supporters in Pasir Ris-Punggol have a hard time accepting them.

 

[halsey02]

RP wins AMK GRC I give you my pinky.......Yakuza honour! Honto!

Who knows?...the long, long, shot?? God may take back His remission on 7 May 0:00 hrs...hmmm

 

[SDPhopelessParty]

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[THE_CHANSTER]

This should be an interesting contest.

Side note is that anything below 60% can be considered a victory. GCT will no longer have the claim of being "very popular" and will be asked to go into permanent retirement.

What has made this GRC an intriguing contest is the introduction of Nicole Seah and Tin Pei-Ling.
Without these two contesting, it's a straightforward PAP win, no doubt about it.

MP is a mixture of young middle class educated affluent voters and the older generation of retirees and whilst there is no doubt the later will vote for GCT, some of the younger ones are either undecided or will probably vote NSP. Many will make NSP protest votes not because they particularly like their policies but because they are drawn to a charismatic candidate in Nicole Seah while being equally repulsed by a PAP candidate who was quite frankly a PR disaster for the party.

In the end, it will be a PAP victory but the result will be closer than many will think. Below 60% of the popular vote is not unreasonable.

 

[Rogue Trader]

Signs are that more quality candidates will emerge. Many are too busy to form and run parties. A new party with Liberal format is expected to be formed and this will attract the new well performing candidates. They have tasted blood and it will no go away. This group is expected to compete directly with WP for profile. Watch for participation by professionals - lawyers, doctors, technocrats and ex-civil servants

This will be an exciting development. If the stars align, I will be very keen to contribute to the cause.

 

[ahkow]

I predict a lot of protest votes against the PAP in MP because of TPL

 

[Debonerman]

<iframe width="640" height="510" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/L4tUBcyC8co?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[kukubird58]

Here are little snippets of the various parties and their performance. Will start with smallest.

.

hahaha......got say like never say........
my little bird (not kukubird) can give a better insight than this.
anyway the smallest party in GE2011 is not RP.

 

[patrickv]

1) Aljunied GRC (143,148 voters) : 71,575 votes to win
2) Bishan Toa Payoh GRC ( 122,492 voters) : 61,247 votes to win
3) Hougang SMC ( 24,560 voters ) : 12,281 votes to win
4) Potong Pasir SMC ( 17,327 voters ) : 8,664 votes to win

all the best opposition party.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

..Best and worst moments of the GE campaign
By Fann Sim | SingaporeScene – Thu, May 5, 2011

As the hustings draw to a close, we round up some of the best moments of what has been an eventful campaign period. This list is strictly tongue-in-cheek and subjective. Enjoy.
Best Quote -- PM Lee


Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong surprised many when the 59-year-old started his first-ever Facebook chat session with the opening words, "Hi, I'm Lee Hsien Loong. Welcome to my webchat! This is my first time doing this. Please don't flame me, I'm a newbie. :-)"

5,000 comments and one hour later, he left many impressed with his honest attempt at connecting with the Facebook generation.

Best Rebuttal — Tan Jee Say




SDP candidate Tan Jee Say defended his credentials. (Yahoo! photo/Faris Mokhtar)

When Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) candidate Tan Jee Say suggested a S$60 billion investment to transform the economy to a services-centric one, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew slammed Tan and said: "He has no qualifications to say that and he is wrong. If you don't have manufacturing, you're going to have trouble with jobs."

But Tan had the credentials to back it up.

"I am surprised; I studied economics at Oxford University and for six years, I worked in the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) where I headed economic and manpower planning. So I have knowledge of both economic theory and development economics. In addition, my proposals have been endorsed by Lord Butler who served three British Prime Ministers."

Best Apology -- PM Lee


There were many during the elections campaign but the one that stood out was that of PM Lee's.

He said sorry not once, but twice as he admitted his government had shortcomings and had made mistakes across a range of issues such as housing and transport. Who knows how many votes this will have saved the PAP?

"We made a mistake when we let Mas Selamat run away. We made a mistake when Orchard Road got flooded... We're sorry we didn't get it exactly right, but I hope you will understand and bear with us because we are trying our best to fix the problems."

Best Rally Speech -- Nicole Seah





Nicole Seah makes a surprise apology on behalf of MM Lee. (Yahoo! photo/Kzan Kek)

The National Solidarity Party's (NSP) internet phenomenon Nicole Seah, 24, has been one of the major highlights of this GE. Quick, someone sign her up as an actress or model.

Since her introduction to the public in April, she's won over hordes of voters with her honest and straight-talking style. She won over a whole lot more fans when she delivered a surprise apology on behalf of Chinese Singaporeans for MM Lee's remarks on Malays.

"On behalf of the Chinese Singaporeans, I would like to apologise to the Muslim community for the comments that MM Lee made."

Speaking in Malay, she later told the 15-000 strong audience, "I would like you to know that my hopes are for us to progress as one Singaporean regardless of race or religion. I would like to build a community where no one gets left behind." Impressive.

Best Spoof — Darth Vader video

The video pokes fun at the Tanjong Pagar GRC walkover, the only constituency that was uncontested after a group of independents belatedly tried but failed to submit the necessary papers in time. Simply watch and pay attention to the details.


Best Analogy — Low Thia Khiang



Low Thia Khiang launches an analogy battle between PAP and WP during the General Elections. (Yahoo! photo/Aeron …

The award for best analogy goes to Worker's Party chief Low Thia Khiang for coming up with the "co-driver" analogy. The analogy sparked off a series of debates and rebuttals between the PAP and WP over the next eight days.

"Bear in mind that just putting on a safety belt and hope that the driver will drive you to your destination is not enough. A co-driver is essential, especially as road gets tougher to navigate. The co-driver is there to slap the driver when he drives off course or when he falls asleep or drives dangerously."

Worst quote -- MM Lee


By far the snarkiest remark of the last week must have been MM Lee Kuan Yew's "repent" comment.

During a press conference at a PAP branch last Saturday, the elder statesman of Singapore said, "If Aljunied decides to go that way, well Aljunied has five years to live and repent."

Dear sir, is it considered a sin to vote for the opposition? Not the last time we checked.

Worst Rally Speech — Tie between Teo Ser Luck and Lim Zirui


Teo Ser Luck transformed himself into somewhat of an overaged, over-enthusiastic cheerleader during one of the PAP rallies by yelling all the names of six-man Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC team.

The Senior Parliamentary Secretary for the Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports saved the best for last when he shouted for the estimated 1,000-crowd to chant his own name. The response was, er, less than encouraging.

Watch the video here (be patient, it comes near the end)

Not to be outdone, Reform Party's Lim Zirui also did himself no favours.
The 24-year-old final year undergraduate sparked a 25-page debate on a popular forum after he referred to a hall allocation problem many NTU students were facing during a rally.

Online netizens slammed him for it.

"The allocation of NTU halls have nothing to do with the nation. He should only bring this issue up if he is standing for the NTU student union elections," commented Fyre.



There's room for improvement for Lim Zirui. (Yahoo! photo/YouTube)

Worst Analogy -- Lui Tuck Yew



Lui Tuck Yew tells voters about a "trees and mushrooms" story. (Yahoo! photo/YouTube)

MICA Minister Lui Tuck Yew joined the battle for best analogy when he threw in one of his own -- "the story of the trees and mushrooms". Lui told a story about a village which was sheltered by tall trees which protected it from storms.

He called the opposition "mushrooms" that would sprout around a tree once every five years for a few months and told the villagers to be wary of the mushrooms.

An arborist later wrote in to Today and said that "mushrooms can be indicators of the tree's health."

Popular satirist blogger mrbrown also tweeted, "Mushrooms grow on dead trees."

Most 'what the ?' moment -- 'She looks good when sweating'

An entire forum thread that spanned 20 pages was dedicated to a photo of Nicole Seah wiping off her perspiration.



Popular blogger mrbrown joins in the fun. (Photo: mrbrown)

Forummers posted comments about their somewhat strange obsession of her and made some pretty weird and nasty remarks. Comments so nasty we're not even allowed to post.

Follow Yahoo! News on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

This article is published by Yahoo! Southeast Asia Pte. Ltd., 60 Anson Road #13-01 Mapletree Anson, Singapore, 079914.

..

 

[kingrant]

Good summary, bro. You made a lot of good points.

ASSESSMENT OF PAP'S KEY TACTICAL BLUNDERS
6 May 2011 Friday


BLUNDER 1:
To sing the same old election tune with "top down" language (ie. "we will take care of you, you better vote for us" and "we know what is best for you"). Old election tune worked for decades, but not this time. Whoever is the 'spin doctor' did not do a proper job. Instead, PAP should have focused on what measures it will take as a result of, or arising from, the feedback of the people (ie. "bottom up" language).


BLUNDER 2:
Likely overreliance on traditional old media (TV, newspapers, lorry, pamphlets). Utterly inept handling of new social media (eg. facebook, twitter).


BLUNDER 3:
Poor choice of candidates: Tin Pei Ling (lack substance), Foo Mee Har (rumor-mill), Steven Tan (last min dropout), & Chan Chun Sing (persona doesn't quite fit). Being put in a GRC aggravates the perception.


BLUNDER 4:
Poor handling of Steve Tan dropout. No satisfactory explanation. Replacement Dr Chia Shi Lu made things worse because (i) Chia as backup actually looked quite decent and led to question why TPL was ahead of Chia; (ii) Chia's sudden entry to walkover as MP overnight made mockery of GRC system.


BLUNDER 5:
Vivian's "gay agenda" question backfired. It was obviously a lowblow.


BLUNDER 6:
Lim Hwee Hua's allegation about "messy" Hougang accounts was a disaster. Her attempt to clarify was more a retraction than a clarification, because her quotes in newspapers and interview on TV were obviously conflicting. Made herself look worse, and LTK better.


BLUNDER 7:
Tactically, public apology 3 days before Polling Day was a huge gamble. It may garner sympathy votes. However, the apology (i) appears insincere because it is last minute; and (ii) the apology supports Opposition's argument that opposition voice in Parliament will make PAP react.

BLUNDER 8:
Last minute reactive measures announced (eg. raising HDB loan qualf limit to $10,000) are self-damaging. Reactive announcements support the Opposition theme that an opposition voice will spur PAP to do good things for the people. (ie. Teo Soh Lung "The Opposition are already in Parliament")


BLUNDER 9:
Don't cry in front of camera. Seriously bad move. If accomplished actor like Jack Neo cannot convince people, neither should politicians attempt to try.


BLUNDER 10:
Lack of alignment in the spin. Different leaders say different things. There are many examples of this. Cannon Fodder for Opposition.

BLUNDER 11:
Self-destruction language used. Phrases like "live and repent" and "Singapore will be in trouble" all backfired. Again, Spin Doctor did not do a proper job.


BLUNDER 12:
No compelling reason given by PAP to justify its dominance in Parliament. Bare assertions that Opposition will take over government, or that it is somehow better to have PAP in total control, or Opposition will get in the way, are simply insufficient to convince people. Unlike Gen O, the new Gen X and Gen Y are educated and understand principles of Parliamentary Democracy. The imbalance in Parliament is by far the weakest spot in PAP's armor. PAP has to be able to justify it in some way. The Opposition's entire theme of "having a voice for people in Parliament" is aimed precisely against this weakest spot. PAP cannot simply ignore or use bare assertions to cover this weakest spot. It was foolhardy.


CONCLUSION:
No matter what the result of this elections, the PAP will need to reinvent itself and transform moving forward. If it remains stuck in the 'Gen O' mould of rhetoric, it will lose political appeal, if not already.

1. When PAP addresses its people, the PAP must change from the 'top down' approach to become a 'bottom up' approach. PAP must be able to link its policies to the feedback from the people.

2. When PAP addresses the opposition, the PAP must be prepared to be receptive to alternative and opposing viewpoints. It must show it is able to combine thesis and anti-thesis to achieve synthesis. It cannot continue to simply ignore or block alternative views.

The good news however, is that after these elections, the political climate in Singapore will change. Public perception has altered to such an extent I do not think it remains possible that the issues raised can simply be ignored or laid to rest after the elections. The level of public outcry has not been seen since the NKF saga, and to ignore these issues will risk civil unrest.

 

[kingrant]

Either way, this GE is going to show up LHL as the lousiest most over-rated PM in Singapore's post independence history, with possibly the narrowest popular margin ever achieved. Talk about low achievers.

He shd give up politics as evidently it is neither a vocation or an avocation for him, and go teach Math or Computer Science at NTI or whatever.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Here are little snippets of the various parties and their performance. Will start with smallest.

SDP
- impressive logistics, stage design and certainly the best but not sure how this will relate to votes. Their candidates except for the Sembawang crew were head and shoulders above the rest including many in the PAP who are designated for his political appointments. Do note that None of this new candidates followed SDP usual themes and certainly did not apply tactics nor adopted measures for which SDP have been associated with. VW, TJS, ML, AT were pleasure to listen to and do have bright future in Singapore politics. It is likely that they will eventually leave to form a new party. Their DNA and SDP's are not compatible. Alternatively Chee's forms a new party and releases his usual associates who are not the sharpest tools in the shed. If SDP carries on its present course, it will the party for rent.

WP
- it is now a well established trait of LTK - rigour, discipline and solid party structure. Solid and well prepared candidates but power and influence is very confined. Some of the old guards are upset that they have not been fielded and it will take its toll. Pritam tuned out to be real find. It is however not a party for a vibrant individual. Its brand name however will continue to carry the highest value. It will continue to have th broadest appeal and excellent grassroots supporters who are not pro PAP. Just look at their rally turnout.

Bump up thread.

Tan Jee Say will not forge ahead with new party yet, but will instead build a "coalition of the willing". Or rather, a coalition of the non-WP. He will try to be the focal point of attention, essentially trying to build a counter to WP centred around himself.

 

[Perspective]

Scro is mostly accurate except the following:

1) SPP is not folding yet.

2) SDP's "above the rest" still there at least until time unknown, except TJS who left to contest PE.

3) NSP new blood from RP holding the fort now.

4) For WP, no old guards not fielded are "tolling" the party, closest is one Eric Tan who left after no NCMP.

5) For PAP, no police reports or lawsuits this time.

But was a wonderful analysis by Scro. Mostly spot on. I had missed this in May 2011.

 

[Perspective]

Bump up thread.

Tan Jee Say will not forge ahead with new party yet, but will instead build a "coalition of the willing". Or rather, a coalition of the non-WP. He will try to be the focal point of attention, essentially trying to build a counter to WP centred around himself.

By the time he is done, it will be around 2015 and he will still fall behind PAP and WP when it comes to really starting work on the people.

 

[zhihau]

Tan Jee Say will not forge ahead with new party yet, but will instead build a "coalition of the willing". Or rather, a coalition of the non-WP. He will try to be the focal point of attention, essentially trying to build a counter to WP centred around himself.

i brought forth the notion of the Romance of Three Kingdom previously, but all was made tongue in cheek. as much as i support political pluralism, all parties have to serve one purpose only: that of making Singapore a better place for all to live in.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

i brought forth the notion of the Romance of Three Kingdom previously, but all was made tongue in cheek. as much as i support political pluralism, all parties have to serve one purpose only: that of making Singapore a better place for all to live in.

If:

PAP = Cao Cao (tyrant, but unified china)

WP = Sun Quan (quiet, but made his mark)

Tan Jee Say = Liu Bei (dark horse who is looking to san fen tian xia)

what would your strategy for TJS be?

 

[zhihau]

what would your strategy for TJS be?

bro,
alas i'm no 诸葛孔明。

 

[Perspective]

If:

PAP = Cao Cao (tyrant, but unified china)

WP = Sun Quan (quiet, but made his mark)

Tan Jee Say = Liu Bei (dark horse who is looking to san fen tian xia)

what would your strategy for TJS be?

Given the present situation, if I were heading an opposition party that is neither PAP or WP, I will focus my attention on one GRC in CCK or Sembawang.

My aim is to grab it before a second party which is WP is able to field 87 candidates by itself. Otherwise, between PAP and WP, I would become marginal no matter how I do it.

But TJS is the wrong man. Cannot be more wrong.

 

[Fook Seng]

But TJS is the wrong man. Cannot be more wrong.

The analogy is also inappropriate. Although TJS started in PMO of GCT, he does not exhibit "义" a hallmark of Liu Bei.