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Puteri Harbour Community
- Thread starter Qube3
- Start date
My view is that so long as you know what you are doing, and why you are doing it, then you know what you are in for, and you just look ahead and move on, come what may. No one knows the future, except God.
i dont wish for this thread to descend into a quarrelsome mire which do happen in many forums. frankly, i dont read anywhere someone naming ph a shiity place. instead many like it and still visit occassionally and thats how once in a while we get to see some updated pics about ph progress. i had mentioned b4 i bought into this place because i like it (can enjoy) and see a potential (invest) for growth. for me, ph will be my new base i think for, it is near spore and i can just spring from senai to genting, my regular haunts. my big kids can visit me here (keys provided) or they can bring their friends if they run out of place to go in spore. i mean always zuok also sian right. but truth be said. if u to and fro everyday the causeway then its a fact, your life can be shortened. and if you are thinking of making money from ph pty now, forget it. of course spore is worse for now. dont forget 1:3 point something. i just tore up the rental contract for one of my spore pty because that clown without even a word with me simply amended the rental amount lower and wanted me to just countersign it! how arrogant. i rather keep my pride by losing some money than being dictated. sorry man i am still the boss! he has to move. i buay kay gian liao!
menghuii,
If there are no buyers, there won't be any properties for rental.
But if there's no rentals, there will still be buyers. Cos not all buyers like to rent their units out. Says who that house owners must rent out their unit?
Tenants think they are the kings cos they think owners are desperate. But they do not know owners especially in PH are one affluent lot. I know many owners in Encorp or Imperia paid in cash. In the end of the day, house owners are still the bosses.
If there are no buyers, there won't be any properties for rental.
But if there's no rentals, there will still be buyers. Cos not all buyers like to rent their units out. Says who that house owners must rent out their unit?
Tenants think they are the kings cos they think owners are desperate. But they do not know owners especially in PH are one affluent lot. I know many owners in Encorp or Imperia paid in cash. In the end of the day, house owners are still the bosses.
Sure, then there are other places that owners are desperate, overall it is a tenant's market still, it is not like anyone die die must stay in PH.
I rather be practical in a soft market, my landed property rental was reduced to 22%, but to me each month without tenant is opportunity cost, "buay kay gian" does not put money in the wallet. But for your case, I agree that your tenant is arrogant and better you not let out, with this type of attitude, you bet that they will not respect your property and damage it full time.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
So can I interpret you saying that at the moment you are pessimistic about Iskandar but in 10 years time, you'd expect areas like PH (and maybe other areas) to start blossoming and move forward?
For me, I see buying an Iskandar home in recent years like indulging an ultra expensive hobby that one should not expect any returns. It's no different from buying cameras, golf equipment, constantly modifying your well-maintained WRX/EVO cars, or traveling every month to faraway places. All these hobbies bring no monetary returns. In fact, they are negative returns but what you get are experiences.
I've been giving it a lot of thought the past many months. Some people tell me I got to think far. It's just a property low now for Iskandar. But no matter how I analyse it, I find it very hard to accept that. In fact, it's the opposite -- the situation can only get worse. I'm saying this as a severely regretful buyer myself. Yes, I admit I didn't open my eyes wider.
The reason why I think it'll get worse is that the demand will never catch up with the supply. You just got to think about what businesses, hospital or shopping centers that will open in say 2-3 years time. For every one of them to open, there will be thousands of new condos/houses. The relationship is just not linear, for those into Mathematics: If A (businesses, etc) grows 2x, B (Iskandar properties) grows 4x. If A grows 4x, B grows 16 times.... you get the picture.
Just go to Medini and you can see one whole stretch of new condos being built now. Almost every darn retail business setup will come with more residential units above. Some even have hotels. When the condos are all ready in a few years' time, where will the tenants be coming from? (I assume there will be a lot fewer people using them for own stay.) It will be a tenants' paradise -- rents could be dirt cheap (below RM2k a month for 3 bedder???) or no rents at all. Go to PH and you will see many more condos. Go to Danga Bay and you will not only see 9,000 new ones from Country Garden, there are thousands more from other close by projects! Go to Bukit Indah and you will see old and new ones also.
Those expats going over to Iskandar are not necessarily the same kind like those in Singapore -- CEOs or directors of MNCs being paid $50k a month, with a nice car given and $10k a month condo in the CBD area. You are likely seeing normal university teachers on short term visit who want to travel around Asia, overseas students on a budget, etc. Why should they necessarily rent PH when down the road in Medini there are 10,000 other choices?
While the Iskandar authorities want the media and buyers to believe the oversupply situation is under control with developers limiting new projects being launched, I don't see how that can be done in the long run. Sooner or later, they have to release the new units. Way before the present oversupply can be cleared, there is a backlog of new ones ready to be built. We are not talking about 5k or 10k more units here. We are talking about a few hundred thousands! That's mind boggling just thinking about it. How can they be cleared in 10 years' time even if you include those who wish to stay inside rather than rent out?
For those who bought PH, I'm guessing it's because you've no more business over in SG side and so Iskandar looked to be an attractive alternative? I mean, for a fraction of the cost of what you can buy in SG, you get a high floor water and yacht view. But ultimately, it's still what do you want to do with the property?
If buying for rental, then it's a tough case no different from other condos in Medini or Danga Bay. If buying for holiday home, I'd say, think carefully again. It may sound fun initially to have BBQ and look out of your window the first few times. But do this a few consecutive weekends, braving the jam across the 2nd link, I think you will not want to go back there any time soon after that. That's a darn expensive S$400,000 property investment to be used only a few times a year as a holiday home!
I heard of a Singaporean couple who bought a landed home in Iskandar and got a kick out of organising BBQ the first few times with their family and friends. After that, they stopped going back due to the hassle. It's like they were doing it just for the sake of it. In fact, they wanted to sell their home but for almost a year, they couldn't find any buyers. That's how bad it is.
With hundreds of thousands of choices coming up in the next few decades, I also can't see how the properties can have capital appreciation. Even if there is, calculate it in relation to you losing money through the high bank interest and weakening RM. Incidentally, RM has always been weak against SGD for donkey years. How to make from the property? Remember also that the pool of potential buyers for resale properties is very small. Ordinary Malaysians will likely not buy in Iskandar. And I saw this with my own eyes -- condos in JB after a few years are notorious for being broken down and poorly maintained. Would a buyer rather buy a resale one or a brand new one at almost the same price?
So that's why I think for the Iskandar properties you've bought, you have to treat them like some super expensive hobby with no returns or negative returns at best. It's not entirely accurate to think that the more Iskandar is developed, the better chance our properties can get tenants or increase in value. Because remember, at the same time, the more condos and houses will also be built along the way. And they don't increase in tandem with the businesses. They increase many times more.
We can't be just optimistic and say, Oh don't worry. Iskandar will do well in 5,10 years' time. Are there signs or evidence for this? That's as blind as rushing in to buy an Iskandar property in the first place without studying the situation. There have to be valid and clear reasons. If not, it's just wishful thinking or self-consolation.
Now maybe many of us are still not feeling the pain yet cos we are in a "lull" period. Once we start paying the monthly bank loans, and there are no rentals, or rents which cover only a fraction of the mortgage, still need to top up, and we want to sell off next time but there are no buyers....I think that's when the pain will sink in.
Not sure what profile the buyers here are. But I do sense there are some uncles here who have already retired or have lots of cash in hand. No need to take bank loan, or can drive in any time, stay there, do what you want. If so, then you're pretty safe. With money, the sky is the limit! But for commoners or normal salaried workers seeking income from your Iskandar properties, I think we need to tighten our seat belts. The ride is just going to get rougher and rougher. Money out, no money in that is.
What do you all think? Add on your views to agree or disagree.
The actual thing retarding the demand is the custom jam. Simple as that.
The Singapore government knows it well. It is very dangerous to have a resource rich neighbour siphoning off business.
Johor is too weak to grow by itself. It thrives on parasitic growth.
Again the distinction between those who buy to stay and those who buy to flip comes into play. The former group is largely unaffected while the latter group would be, even more so if the latter group comprised of investors who have several properties under their belt which they had hope can be flippable or rentable without much problem. Of course those who are rich, and always have $2.6m in their wallet have little to fret:p, but perhaps this is not the majority of us here.
Those who buy to stay are living it up in JB and Malaysia at RM 3 exchange rate for the past 1 year already.
Really admire those who don't have to enter Singapore at all but still get to earn Sing dollars and spend money in Malaysia
New Wizard of Oz attraction in Johor's Sanrio Hello Kitty Town
http://www.tnp.sg/news/world-news/new-wizard-oz-attraction-johors-sanrio-hello-kitty-town
Maybe. But it's not an easy thing to solve. Even if both sides shake hands and say let's build an extra 5 lane road somewhere somehow, toll prices will increase (which government doesn't want profits?) and it's still questionable how attractive it is to go in and out everyday.
To boost take up rate of the properties in Iskandar, I feel what is needed is an MRT-like system that has stops near various condo projects linking all the way into Singapore. There should also be minimal hassle of having one's passport chopped. But these are impossible to achieve. So that's a big negative reason why I don't think most common Singaporeans will be attracted to live in Iskandar even when it is more developed next time. It mainly depends on that limited pool of expats working there which will never match the number of oversupplied residential properties coming up.
Yes, buying to stay is the best bet. But even that come with risks if it was bought after 2012. The prices have all been inflated. To try to sell off next time even at the same price could be a problem. You're losing money from currency depreciation, depreciating property value due to oversupply and bank loan. Anyway, not every buyer has the opportunity to be able to live in Iskandar but work in Singapore.
As for those who buy to flip, I'm not sure if there are really such people around. It's really poor foresight if buying to flip. How to flip when there is so much supply? So far, I know most bought cos they are thinking of renting out or waiting for capital growth. Both of which are highly unlikely.
Those who are rich... nothing much to talk about. As I've said, you can buy or do anything you want. Even if Iskandar properties are a lose money investment, it's no big deal. It's just like when one can afford to buy a mobile phone, no one thinks much that a few years down the road, that model is worth little in monetary value. You buy to enjoy using the phone or maybe show it off a bit.
The problem is, with properties, not many are in that category of saying "If my Iskandar property becomes a liability, I can overlook it cos I have 10 others making money for me."
Just like the ferry at PH. Malaysia is ready but Spore do not want the link yet. Why? If everyone run to Iskandar, what will happen to Singapore property market?
The RM1 million barrier is the bigger barrier to the explosive sales of Johor properties to Singaporeans, hands up how many of you bought your units at a RM1 million or more due to this barrier and not by choice. I am curious to know.
Oh.. It's the Singapore side holding back the ferry link?
But for RTS, I know it's the Malaysian side creating trouble. Maybe Singapore is now playing tit-for-tat?
I remember a Malaysian official was reported saying Singapore was holding up the project. But shortly after, Singapore replied that's not true. We have already prepared our side. The next thing I was told, the whole RTS is scrapped.
It's almost a gone case to have an oversupply of properties. It's the last nail to the coffin if there is no alternative affordable transport to link Singapore with Iskandar, especially Medini/PH side.
You have summed up what I have been trying to say all along and all I got was hate comments and asked to get lost. I do know that you can get the good life in Johor nowadays and may even be better than Singapore. But to me rental is still the best option and at the rate things are going, it is a tenant's market at least for the next decade. Some have ridiculed me by saying I am subsidizing owner's loans but at the rate things are going, rents may even fall below payments and it becomes owners who subsidise tenants.
Anyway good post and just reinforces my view on not buying in Johor.
Ask yourself this question.
What will Singapore Government benefit if they solve all these transportation problems? People's problems are not their problems. Their problem is to make sure Singapore is economically protected.
I also agree with your points. Maybe for some, it's a blow on the ego to admit a wrong decision has been made. Or it's just self-consolation and pray that things will get better. But I feel it's better to "take the bull by the horns" and face the issue. I'm still toying with the idea of abandoning ship and cutting off huge loss. Cos it can become like cancer. Better to chop off a sick arm now and live than to let the cancer spread and die next time when there is no turning back.
But having said that, I do sense there is a handful of investors here who are financially rich. Even if they lose money from Iskandar, it's hardly a dent on their finances or overall property portfolio. I read one guy from another forum here had bought a house and 2 or 3 condos in Iskandar cos he "simply likes to be different from the norm"! Must be damn rich and super high risk-taker to be thinking this way.
From now till many years later, I do also think it's a "tenants' paradise". Even if one can get tenants after 10 years, likely the rental amount per month will still be heavily suppressed. It will take a lot of capital appreciation to make up for all the losses in previous years due to no rental, insufficient rental to cover mortgage, loss of capital from currency exchange and paying the hefty bank interest. Unfortunately, with such a huge oversupply, how much more can the properties be sold for? If one had bought an Iskandar condo for RM1.2 million, would there be people willing to buy it over at RM1.5 million when there are still lots of brand new ones going for RM1 million?
I guess the temptation to buy Johor properties is there cos of the lower cost compared to Singapore's properties, cheaper food/shopping and fewer crowds there. But if you are a working Singaporean, your job is firmly rooted here, your family and friends are here, it's very hard to travel every day and live there. Rental and capital appreciation have to be the supporting pillars for the investment.
The condos we bought may have nice view and all that but without healthy rentals or increase in capital, they could end up as a very expensive vase used as a display item. The rich can take that, but the commoners will drain their money away unnecessarily.
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