http://www.todayonline.com/business/maybank-sounds-warning-iskandar-urges-caution
Maybank sounds warning on Iskandar, urges caution
Maybank sounds warning on Iskandar, urges caution
A property development in Johor by Country Garden. As of the fourth quarter of last year, the state had some of the highest number of units planned in all of Malaysia. Photo: Raj Nadarajan
BY
LEE YEN NEE
[email protected]ISHED: 4:17 AM, APRIL 18, 2015
ISKANDAR (JOHOR) —
The existing glut of homes in Iskandar will be aggravated by a huge incoming supply this year and the next, which would put property values under greater pressure over the medium term, a research report by Malaysia’s largest bank showed.
Advising investors to be cautious about the region,
the Maybank report said that Klang Valley and Penang were better bets. Klang Valley, in particular, is preferred because of the upcoming rapid transit lines, and the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail project that will end at Bandar Malaysia.
More importantly, Greater KL and Klang Valley has a strong population growth potential — a possible 40 per cent increase to 10 million by 2020 — that offers more sustainable demand for properties, it added.
The report pointed out that the value of property transactions in Johor had fallen by 33 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of last year, underperforming the country (-7 per cent) and other major cities such as KL (-12 per cent) and Penang (8 per cent).
Property prices in Johor were also weaker than that of other cities, with the prices contracting 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, property prices in the whole of Malaysia dipped 0.2 per cent.
There are
roughly 80,900 units of approved high-rise residences in Iskandar. Latest statistics from Malaysia’s National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) showed that as at the fourth quarter of last year, there were 142,567 homes under construction in the state of Johor, with another 193,271 units planned — among the highest in all of Malaysia.
The
aggressive land-banking activities by Chinese developers could also worsen the glut and lead to price wars in the high-rise mixed-development segment, the report said.
“Without coordinated planning and control, this could aggravate the oversupply situation and induce price wars especially in the high-rise mixed development segment,” said Mr Wong Wei Sum, an analyst with Maybank who wrote the research note.
The report also gave its assessment on some of the high-profile projects in Iskandar:
At Guangzhou R&F Properties’ Princess Cove project, it noted that despite its prime location in the city centre of Johor Baru, the take-up for its phase 1 residential towers only rose slightly from 46 per cent in October last year to about 60 per cent currently.
Country Garden’s project in Johor Baru’s Danga Bay area is also about 60 per cent sold. A similar proportion of projects in Danga Bay by Greenland, a Chinese property developer, is booked. “Most of the buyers are Malaysians and the three Chinese developers (including Guangzhou R&F) are offering discounts/rebates ranging from 6 to 15 per cent, we were told,” Mr Wong said.
“We remain cautious over the increasingly crowded development space in Iskandar Malaysia and think the oversupply situation is likely to get worse ... This will be aggravated by ample incoming supply by end-2015 and 2016 from units which were launched during Iskandar Malaysia’s peak time in 2012 and 2013.”
Property analysts said the concerns raised by Maybank about Iskandar are valid, especially at a time when demand for homes in the special economic region has started to wane, following the implementation of property cooling measures targeted at foreign buyers and tighter lending conditions by banks.
If the oversupply situation is not managed well, the vibrancy of Iskandar will be affected with a large number of homes or even entire townships left vacant, the analysts said.
Mr Colin Tan, director of research and consultancy at Suntec Real Estate Consultants, said: “By looking purely at the economics, the Iskandar story should succeed because so long as investments continue to come in, the place should be in a good state. The question is, ‘How long will it take?’
Iskandar’s progress seems to be held back by politics.”
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/caution-advised-on/1790094.html
SINGAPORE: The property oversupply situation in Iskandar Malaysia, Johor, is "likely to get worse before it gets better", said Maybank Investment Bank's research wing in a report, with property values in an increasingly crowded development space possibly declining over the medium term.
In a research note issued by the Malaysian bank on Tuesday (Apr 14) urged investors to be cautious about the region, noting that property transactions and prices in Iskandar have been dropping.
The value of property transactions in Johor had fallen by 33 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the Q4 2014, underperforming the country (-7 per cent) and other major cities such as Kuala Lumpur (-12 per cent) and Penang (8 per cent).
Property prices in Johor were also weaker than that of other cities, with the House Price Index (HPI) contracting 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, property prices in the whole of Malaysia dropped 0.2 per cent, the research paper said.
Residential and commercial property transaction values plunged 42 per cent and 43 per cent on-quarter in the fourth quarter 2014, respectively, compared to the 4 per cent dip by industrial properties.
"The latest statistics reaffirm our view that industrial properties are a better investment choice in Iskandar due to the relocation of small medium enterprises (SMEs) from Singapore and its relatively limited supply as compared to residential and commercial properties," Maybank said.
OVERSUPPLY AN ISSUE
The research note said that Malaysian developers have scaled back their launches and shifted their product mix to avoid direct competition with Chinese developers, and have lowered sales expectations for their projects at Iskandar.
"Judging from the number of approved high-rise projects, the Iskandar property market could be hit by too much supply of high-rise mixed development projects if there is still no coordinated planning and control - this will induce price volatility," Maybank analyst Wong Wei Sum said in the research.
"The oversupply situation will be exacerbated by the huge incoming supply in 2015/2016, where units under construction have risen 18 per cent year-on-year in 2012 and 2013, respectively."
"AGGRESSIVE" LAND GRAB BY CHINESE DEVELOPERS
The research note also raised concerns about "aggressive landbanking activities" by Chinese developers in the already-crowded Iskandar region.
"Without coordinated planning and control, this could aggravate the oversupply situation and induce price wars, especially in the high-rise mixed development segment."
For instance, Shanghai-based Greenland Holdings Group recently expanded its foothold in the space with the acquisition of a 128-acre freehold land in the south of Bandar Baru Permas Jaya. This was after its first purchase of 14 acres of land in Danga Bay in 2014. The company is also looking to acquire about 1,200 to 1,400 acres of industrial land near the Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex, according to Maybank.
"If this materialises, Greenland will emerge as one of the largest land owners in Iskandar with a total landbank of 1,342 acres and it would pose strong competition to the local developers," the report said.
RECLAMATION PROJECT PRESENT "HIGH ELEMENT OF RISK"
Maybank also said it is "cautious" over "massive land reclamation" in Iskandar.
Reclamation works spanning 3,425 acres for the Forest City project has been given the green light from the Development of Environment. The development will spread over a 30-year period, and will consist of four man-made islands reclaimed in four phases.
"The execution and planning of such reclamation projects is complex, especially Forest City, and carry elements of risk and uncertainty. Hence, developers' financial positions are paramount; else we may see projects being abandoned or price wars initiated to clear inventories or reduce sales risks by the developers," Maybank said.
"More importantly, the failure of any of these projects could erode buyers' confidence and perception on Iskandar."
As such, the bank said it remains cautious on property exposure in Iskandar, instead preferring developers with exposure in the Klang Valley and Penang.
Klang Valley, in particular, is preferred because of the upcoming KVMRT and LRT lines, and potential KL-Singapore high-speed rail project, which will end at Bandar Malaysia, Maybank said.
More importantly, the strong population growth potential in Greater KL and Klang Valley - a possible 40 per cent increase to 10 million by 2020 - offers more sustainable demand for properties, it added.
- CNA/kk