For sake of arguments.. since it is still holiday mood now.
I will tell you if you are right or wrong (of course to my own standard which is very low compared to the gurus and milan doshis' out there)
What are your parameters as the basis of your analysis? Don't give me the general over supplies, Chinese buyers and bank loans restrictions..To analyse, you got to be deeper than that. What are the sub sectors? What are the underlying factors that influence these sub sectors. How can they be resolved or if they can be resolved. What are the long term views and historical reasons to it. The demographics of the buyers and the sentiments of non buyers, local, locally foreign Singaporeans and foreigners.
And how do you strategise the way to go around these problems or solutions. Time frame and the reasons why it is within this time frame. And all these are just for the investors.
Shall we go on to analyse the developers now? And how about the financiers. Then the Government policies and politics? Iskandar has Royal inputs in its developments. What are the consequences? Then the topographies...and the list goes on. Oh...I forgot about geo political as well and oil prices. Economic factors too.
To do all the above, I need at least 1 year to do all the research. And since it is dynamic in nature, the analysis keep changing. By the time it is completed, all properties cycles had crashed or had shot up. I would have missed my opportunity.
But maybe some of you gurs are better. You can type all the above within 10 minutes and post them immediately. I rest my case.
I rather rely on my acumen or what you called "gut feeling". Happy New Year.
The general oversupply (a very big issue already), rich Chinese/foreign buyers and bank warnings/restrictions are easy to understand for the layman. That's what the discussions have thus far been centred on.
The questions you asked are detailed but there are no firm answers or convincing direction from the Malaysian side. So how do I answer them? I don't think any good analysts can do so. Isn't it scary?!
Let's face it. The Malaysian government is not like SG government. In Singapore, everything is so transparent. If a project is said to complete by a certain year, right down to a certain month, it is likely so. At most + or - a few weeks or months delay. We don't have confidence like that in Malaysia generally, much less in a place like JB or Iskandar, be it Puteri Harbour, Medini or Danga Bay.
As many here like to often say "If so and so millionaire or big developer has gone into Iskandar to invest, it can't go wrong", well take it from BILLIONAIRE Peter Lim then. He ditched his plan to build residential properties and now convert the land to build a hospital instead. Why? Is he dumb? I don't think so. It says a lot, doesn't it?
What we do have are facts on buyer profiles, number of properties to be built or have completed in Iskandar, property prices in JB, the business projects in Iskandar, historical data on the Malaysian economy, weak currency exchange rate, political instability, etc. There are also quantitative data produced by researchers. These are not lies. They are facts. Go do your homework if you are interested. With them, you can already form your own opinions about whether it's safe or wise to invest in Iskandar.
So far, those who support Iskandar projects have never come face to face with the oversupply problem. Why? Are they choosing to ignore the fact or simply don't want to think about it? How are your condos going to be rented out next time when you are fighting with more than 10,000 others who are also renting out their units? At what price? Are there buyers who will be interested to buy your home next time? At what price?
People are so engrossed with associating Iskandar with Singapore's success. Which is so wrong. Even Ryan Khoo does that. He even went so far to say Iskandar will succeed because only a small portion of Singaporean households need to move over and it will thrive. I don't know where this 'snake oil" salesman get such assumptions from. I can also say if we all love one another, we can all have world peace! Hahaha...
You said you choose to trust your "gut instinct" because the money is yours and that is your personal decision. But no one will follow that as it is biased. We have to make intelligent decisions based on facts and data. In all likelihood, I think you have excess money or money that you don't need that's why you dare to put it in Iskandar. But for the astute investor or commoner, they will not or may not have the capability to just throw money like that.