Prediction of Singapore's political future

[chilakak]

2021 - Old man dies and PAP splits into a elite fraction and grassroots fraction

Good heavens! You are actually wishing the old man such a long live?!? Eight more years?!? Heaven forbid!
He has to go sooner rather than later so that real change can commence.

 

[loneshark]

Regarding newly minted citizens, it can be a double edged sword.
On one hand, they may vote incumbent out of gratitude or wish for continued liberal immigration policy to get their kampung over. But they are also more garang then true blue sinkies, as shown in the SMRT strike, they will be the first to express their unhappiness.

So, does anyone have any personal friends who are newly minted citizens? What are their thoughts?

 

[Fool_Me_Hard]

Good heavens! You are actually wishing the old man such a long live?!? Eight more years?!? Heaven forbid!
He has to go sooner rather than later so that real change can commence.

I think old man should be gone before 2020... He won't be contesting in the 2016 general elections because he will be too old and weak to to walk all over Tanjong Pagar GRC to campaign. There are already cracks within the grassroots and elite fraction of PAP. They are together only because the old man is around.

 

[rusty]

It will continue to play dirty tricks. Just that knives and clubs will start hitting the corrupt in Leegime by even their own half dogs.

They never run out of them. The trick has started.....in The White Paper....Population will grow up to 7mil

My guess is that it will take another 10 to 15 years for WP to build up their internal strength and talent pool to acquire core
competency to govern. Meanwhile, their best role is to act as a "spur" to keep the government in check.

The longer it takes the better for PAP 30k x 20 yrs = 600k new voters supporting PAP

Not too concerned about new citizens. First, many of these new citizens will already have sinkie spouse, so they are not going to blindly vote for PAP. Second, amongst the new citizens will be young children and teenagers who can't vote and will think like sinkies when they grow up. Third, citizens vote for self interest, whether new or old citizens. if pap policy is bad for old citizens, it will also be bad for new citizens.

All new citizens come here for only one reason safety. Security and stability is the main criteria for the rich and most of them are.

I am quite surprise many don't see population growth a disguise to balance the swing of votes.

Opposition must win 2016 election and pull the brake on the influx, otherwise PAP will rule for another 50 years until the new citizen become like us.

I give an example, Punggol East has 33,000 voters, to dilute the WP voter, all PAP need to do is put 15,000 new citizen there and WP is finished.

If they import 3 mil by 2030, where do you think they will place them?

 

[CPT (NS) BRANDON]

I think old man should be gone before 2020... He won't be contesting in the 2016 general elections because he will be too old and weak to to walk all over Tanjong Pagar GRC to campaign. There are already cracks within the grassroots and elite fraction of PAP. They are together only because the old man is around.

What makes you think that he will need to campaign?

Tanjong Pagar usually sees walkovers, even when opposition turns up to contest. They will simply find fault with the paperwork and declare LKY and gang the winners by walkover. They have to do this because he is too frail to actually withstand the rigours of a full campaign.

By the way, if he contests the 2016 election, he will be 91 years old (!!!) and will probably be the world's oldest MP!

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

The policies that are bad for Singapore are good for the PAP. PAP policies are based on PAP ideology. PAPzis are fascist and stand by elitists ideologies. They will tax the lower and middle income but allow almost unrestrained riches and even reduce taxes against the rich. They will continue to control all aspects of the economy and mass media and allow unrestrained immigration to dilute opposition votes.

The only way to beat the PAPzis is to work towards having 20% of the voters change from PAPzis to opposition. This is the target to aim for. Anything less is not sufficient and too risky. LHL may retire as PM in two elections but he will become MM and he will continue to rule the PAP and parliament.

 

[CPT (NS) BRANDON]

The policies that are bad for Singapore are good for the PAP. PAP policies are based on PAP ideology.

Has anyone from the PAP actually explicitly defined its party ideology?

It had a clear ideology back in the LKY days (socialism, people-centric, anti-colonial, multi-racial, equal opportunities, meritocratic). But LKY himself stopped concentrating on ideology back in the mid-to-late 1970s and no PAP leader has managed to articulate a coherent ideology since.

In contrast the WP and SDP ideologies are pretty clear.

I have never seen a political party in any country win so many elections without a clearly identifiable ideological stance.

 

[andyfisher]

the ideology is:
Lees first; followed by
scholars; followed by
urines; followed by
FTs; followed by
shits (to finish up the scraps); followed by
m&ds (who get regurgitated matter).

And anybody who says otherwise will get sued.

A simple ideology, answered ur question Brandon

 

[LauKow]

the ideology is:
Lees first; followed by
scholars; followed by
urines; followed by
FTs; followed by
shits (to finish up the scraps); followed by
m&ds (who get regurgitated matter).

And anybody who says otherwise will get sued.

A simple ideology, answered ur question Brandon

Good one!

 

[steffychun]

My Prediction 2030s

WP Coalition government

PM: Unknown
DPM: Unknown
Foreign Minister: Pritam Singh.

 

[Fook Seng]

My Prediction 2030s

WP Coalition government

PM: Unknown
DPM: Unknown
Foreign Minister: Pritam Singh.

I think Foreign Minister should be CSM. He got the most international exposure - Fortune 500 and global leaders.

 

[Charlie99]

What makes you think that he will need to campaign?

Tanjong Pagar usually sees walkovers, even when opposition turns up to contest. They will simply find fault with the paperwork and declare LKY and gang the winners by walkover. They have to do this because he is too frail to actually withstand the rigours of a full campaign.

By the way, if he contests the 2016 election, he will be 91 years old (!!!) and will probably be the world's oldest MP!

Assuming that he will be alive, I believe that LKY will be contesting the 2016 GE, because he is not an individual who will retire.
In addition, he will die as an MP, and thereby establish the recod is the longest serving MP.
For the foreseeable future, there is no one who is likely to beat his record as the longest serving MP.

 

[steffychun]

After the stunning results of the Punggol East BE, it is natural to want to know what holds for Singapore's future. All things held constant, the following is my prediction:

2016 - PAP loses 2/3 majority

2017 - A candidate not endorsed by the PAP captures the Singapore Presidency.

2021 - The PAP loses absolute majority and a coalition government is formed in Singapore.

Got the following gem of a video from Lucky's blog. It gives a taste of this future.

[video=youtube;gVebKAbyFVY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=gVebKAbyFVY#![/video]

Coalitions suck. Just look at the Lib Dems and Conservatives in the UK. That would mean the most unstable Singapore.

 

[steffychun]

Assuming that he will be alive, I believe that LKY will be contesting the 2016 GE, because he is not an individual who will retire.
In addition, he will die as an MP, and thereby establish the recod is the longest serving MP.
For the foreseeable future, there is no one who is likely to beat his record as the longest serving MP.

To every man upon this earth
Death cometh soon or late.

And how can man die better
than facing fearful odds,
For the ashes of his fathers,
And the temples of his Gods?

 

[ray_of_hope]

Punggol East was simply a by-election. LTK is right in telling people not to read too much into it.
Most of the analysis I have read thus far is very flawed, and as a consequence fails to understand why LTK said what he said.
At most WP will gain a 5 or 6 seats at the next GE. The other oppo parties will be scrambling for crumbs of comfort.

 

[steffychun]

Punggol East was simply a by-election. LTK is right in telling people not to read too much into it.
Most of the analysis I have read thus far is very flawed, and as a consequence fails to understand why LTK said what he said.
At most WP will gain a 5 or 6 seats at the next GE. The other oppo parties will be scrambling for crumbs of comfort.

And hope the other oppo keep on losing their deposits

 

[Fook Seng]

Coalitions suck. Just look at the Lib Dems and Conservatives in the UK. That would mean the most unstable Singapore.

You have no choice if no one party achieves a simple majority.

 

[Fook Seng]

And hope the other oppo keep on losing their deposits

The other parties need to do their share to bring in the seats otherwise they will get themselves marginalized.

 

[myfoot123]

The other parties need to do their share to bring in the seats otherwise they will get themselves marginalized.

Other party should eye the turf WP will not take.

SDP should start prowling or pounding the ground instead of waiting for the 9 days campaign

Butkit Panjang
Toa Payoh Bishan GRC (or coalition with SPP in this turf to pick up TC management)
Holland-bukit timah
Tg Pagar (if WP is not contesting)

Concentrate on the above 2 or 3 areas. If possible.

 

[steffychun]

I think Foreign Minister should be CSM. He got the most international exposure - Fortune 500 and global leaders.

No he might be finance. Or not even. He's not within the inner core.