Prediction of Singapore's political future

[aurvandil]

After the stunning results of the Punggol East BE, it is natural to want to know what holds for Singapore's future. All things held constant, the following is my prediction:

2016 - PAP loses 2/3 majority

2017 - A candidate not endorsed by the PAP captures the Singapore Presidency.

2021 - The PAP loses absolute majority and a coalition government is formed in Singapore.

Got the following gem of a video from Lucky's blog. It gives a taste of this future.

[video=youtube;gVebKAbyFVY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=gVebKAbyFVY#![/video]

 

[GOD IS MY DOG]

i can only hope that you're very young................so carried away..............

if there's a recession or financial crisis again (most likely) in a few years............people will vote for PAP again...........number of opposition MPs may drop.


anyway, at very most number of opposition MPs will triple in 2016...............


by 2021.............after PAP has added even more ''New Citizens''............maybe too late to get rid of them.............

doesn't matter who's the president..............

 

[tanwahp]

The PAP is safest if it starts uninstalling some of the institutions that led it into power.

Eg reduce GRC to 3 members or abolish it. Abolish the elected president office.

For PA, can wait for new party in power to abolish it.

 

[Sinkie]

Don't get carried away. Many did that in 2006 election.

 

[aurvandil]

To use a term which I once coined that became the favorite of many PAP leaders, I am "cautiously optimistic" that I will be correct. You cannot erase so many years of policy mistakes with just a few minor policy tweaks. Once the pre-65 pass on and the post-65 become the demographic majority, the PAP will fall from power.

 

[soIsee]

There are only two possible scenorio.

PAP tries all sorts of tricks, back door/unfair rules or whatever to maintain at least 2/3 inside the Dog house.

Or they are dragged kicking out of the House maybe with a few good men left remaining.

They are the 'beat until die, also don't want to leave' type.

An appropriate saying used commonly for their own 'silver serpents'!

 

[Bigfuck]

There are only two possible scenorio.

PAP tries all sorts of tricks, back door/unfair rules or whatever to maintain at least 2/3 inside the Dog house.

Or they are dragged kicking out of the House maybe with a few good men left remaining.

They are the 'beat until die, also don't want to leave' type.

An appropriate saying used commonly for their own 'silver serpents'!

It will continue to play dirty tricks. Just that knives and clubs will start hitting the corrupt in Leegime by even their own half dogs.

 

[soIsee]

It will continue to play dirty tricks. Just that knives and clubs will start hitting the corrupt in Leegime by even their own half dogs.

I was hoping for that to come sooner too but apparently the bad policies made by them took such a HEAVY toll on the common folks that no longer can the WHOLE BUNCH remain intact.

They would split with fangs and knives baring eventually as said by you.

For that I agree. For where is there honor among thieves to begin with.

But at present the thieves are living off the spoils of their ill gotten gains and if not removed sooner, I am afraid the rightful sons and daughters of the land will be made non-existent.

With God's will, the good shall prevail and all good things shall be returned to the land as what it once remembered for.

 

[myfoot123]

After the stunning results of the Punggol East BE, it is natural to want to know what holds for Singapore's future. All things held constant, the following is my prediction:

2016 - PAP loses 2/3 majority

2017 - A candidate not endorsed by the PAP captures the Singapore Presidency.

2021 - The PAP loses absolute majority and a coalition government is formed in Singapore.

Got the following gem of a video from Lucky's blog. It gives a taste of this future.

2017 - Non-PAP presidents called for PAP to come clean with reserves
Between 2017 to 2021 - more PAP scandals exposed when oppositions had 2/3 majoirty - calling for by-election

Each by election - PAP lost majority and purged.

2021 - New age began. All investors and businessmen started to suck up to WP and other opposition parties.

Inquirty into PAP scandals became talk of the town and newspaper readership up like never before.
The Lees run road, Singaporeans became united once more. Majula Singapura was sang with heart and soul in every school compounds.

Life was brought to normal and peace prevail. No more crowded trains.

 

[Wildfire]

One swallow does not make a spring … albeit "cautiously optimistic"!

LTK was absolutely honest with his electorates when he stressed his party is not ready to govern … Short of a freak election result,
PAP will continue to enjoy enough support to form the government for the foreseeable future.

The politic scene in Singapore is still evolving. Over the next decade or more, there will be new aspirants, merges, consolidation
and obliteration which will result in a more compact and sustainable political structure of two or three dominant parties. By which
time, Singapore will be ready for an alternative government.

My guess is that it will take another 10 to 15 years for WP to build up their internal strength and talent pool to acquire core
competency to govern. Meanwhile, their best role is to act as a "spur" to keep the government in check.

As for the Presidency in 2017, my guess is that any and all "qualified individual" would be in some way or other associated with PAP
given that we all grow up and matured with the party.

 

[aurvandil]

I really wish that things will change slowly and there will be an orderly transition of power. The way things are looking is that the transition will be anything but orderly. Good thing is that WP will not be the only player in 2021. GE 2011 threw up a lot of talented individuals who are not with the PAP or WP. It is inconceivable that none of them will have any role to play.

The loss of the absolute majority in 2021 will not be a freak election result but the natural end point of a process that began not in 2011 but in the 1990s. GE 2011, PE 2011, the Hougang BE and the Punggol East BE are all key milestones that validate the hypothesis of what will happen as the P65 become the demographic majority.

LTK was absolutely honest with his electorates when he stressed his party is not ready to govern … Short of a freak election result, PAP will continue to enjoy enough support to form the government for the foreseeable future.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Yes, change is happening much sooner than I myself anticipated. The PAP will definitely react, but given LHL's poor leadership I expect their reaction to be disjointed, confused, and vacillating between ineffective and overly aggressive. Expect more threats from them, legal action, etc.

Your call for LHL to step down is correct. He is one chap who is a good speaker, I personally listen to every one of his speeches start to finish, and never find it boring. Unfortunately, in terms of real world leadership he comes very much short and this will be clear in the next few years when they try to tackle the growing crisis.

There is now a gap to be filled in the opposition. I wrote about this some time back. There will be a need for a third party to emerge that will not have any of the baggage of the old parties, and that will fill the void that WP has created. A party made up of matured professionals, captains of industry, etc. People like Choo ZX are clued in on this, but they may not be the new leaders. The opposition has stuck in a rut for too long and WP cannot cover the whole country, or should I say they would not wish it upon themselves. WP cannot also move beyond the current framework set of Low and Sylvia. Stay tuned, the change is only just beginning.

I really wish that things will change slowly and there will be an orderly transition of power. The way things are looking is that the transition will be anything but orderly. Good thing is that WP will not be the only player in 2021. GE 2011 threw up a lot of talented individuals who are not with the PAP or WP. It is inconceivable that none of them will have any role to play.

The loss of the absolute majority in 2021 will not be a freak election result but the natural end point of a process that began not in 2011 but in the 1990s. GE 2011, PE 2011, the Hougang BE and the Punggol East BE are all key milestones that validate the hypothesis of what will happen as the P65 become the demographic majority.

 

[watchman8]

There is another possibility, of a PAP faction breaking away and ally with WP. This will speed up the power transition. There are already much disquiet within pap ranks on the current policy trajectory.

 

[watchman8]

There is now a gap to be filled in the opposition. I wrote about this some time back. There will be a need for a third party to emerge that will not have any of the baggage of the old parties, and that will fill the void that WP has created. A party made up of matured professionals, captains of industry, etc. People like Choo ZX are clued in on this, but they may not be the new leaders. The opposition has stuck in a rut for too long and WP cannot cover the whole country, or should I say they would not wish it upon themselves. WP cannot also move beyond the current framework set of Low and Sylvia. Stay tuned, the change is only just beginning.

Even if pap lost power, the entire civil service remains intact. The daily operation continues. It is the strategic leadership that the opposition needs to step up. But I don't worry much here because strategic leadership is very much dependent on a small group of talented individuals with international and local foresights. This has nothing to do with party politics.

 

[myfoot123]

There is another possibility, of a PAP faction breaking away and ally with WP. This will speed up the power transition. There are already much disquiet within pap ranks on the current policy trajectory.

This is a very viable scenario and hopefully some will join SDP as well. However, to see PAP split camps, voters have a greater part to play to make the break even greater. If the other side of PAP camp feels WP or SDP is nearing to toppling PAP, they will jump camp from PAP.

Many things can happen within 3 years. Now PAP is trying to up population by taking in 25,000 yearly and these group may be the rally crowd for PAP.

Singaporeans must act swift, for the sake of our children, grand children. We build this country for ourselves to live peacefully, not for foreigners to upset our environment.

PAP admitted they have made mistakes,and they think more mistakes will not hurt. Let's prove them wrong.

I hope NSP, SDP and SPP can start making themselves known instead of hiding in the hermit shell. They have 3 years, and don't waste it went the tide has turned against the PAP. Don't come out at the last minute to garner vote, do it now!!

 

[Wildfire]

There is another possibility, of a PAP faction breaking away and ally with WP. This will speed up the power transition.
There are already much disquiet within pap ranks on the current policy trajectory.

It's a possibility, but unlikely as any breakaway faction would have their own ideology and likely be strong enough on their own to form a government.
Otherwise, they would not want to break and lose their existing benefits in governing.

Again, a lot of hypothesis and permutations! Everything is possible ... The speed of change will depend a lot on the state of economy, cost of living
and household income, etc

 

[aurvandil]

The permutation with the highest probability is that Singapore will have a coalition government in 2021. It is unclear who will be in this coalition. It is possible for PAP to in the coalition but a more likely outcome will be a coalition led by WP with the PAP retaining a significant number of seats in the Opposition.

At this point in time, it is not possible to see past 2021. The lead up to 2021 is however very clear and supported by a huge amount of empirical data.

Again, a lot of hypothesis and permutations! Everything is possible ... The speed of change will depend a lot on the state of economy, cost of living and household income, etc

 

[soIsee]

I really wish that things will change slowly and there will be an orderly transition of power. The way things are looking is that the transition will be anything but orderly. Good thing is that WP will not be the only player in 2021. GE 2011 threw up a lot of talented individuals who are not with the PAP or WP. It is inconceivable that none of them will have any role to play.

The loss of the absolute majority in 2021 will not be a freak election result but the natural end point of a process that began not in 2011 but in the 1990s. GE 2011, PE 2011, the Hougang BE and the Punggol East BE are all key milestones that validate the hypothesis of what will happen as the P65 become the demographic majority.

It was not your fault. Sure, slow change will be much better.

But the way the man is going about HIS BUSINESS with his cronies.

He is just digging his own grave together with his blood ties ! LOL

 

[watchman8]

Many things can happen within 3 years. Now PAP is trying to up population by taking in 25,000 yearly and these group may be the rally crowd for PAP.

Not too concerned about new citizens. First, many of these new citizens will already have sinkie spouse, so they are not going to blindly vote for PAP. Second, amongst the new citizens will be young children and teenagers who can't vote and will think like sinkies when they grow up. Third, citizens vote for self interest, whether new or old citizens. if pap policy is bad for old citizens, it will also be bad for new citizens.

 

[Fool_Me_Hard]

2016 - PAP lose most of the Eastern side of Singapore with 25-30 seats going to the Opposition Parties, 20 to WP and 10 to SDP and NSP.

2017 - Tony Tan gets voted off as a President, maybe Doc Tan Cheng Bock become President

2021 - Old man dies and PAP splits into a elite fraction and grassroots fraction