Population expected to shrink by 200,000 as more FTs will be laid off

[CENWEN]

Shrinking population

Job losses to cut Singapore population by 4% : Top bank

<cite class="auth">AFP - Wednesday, January 21

</cite>SINGAPORE, Jan 20, 2009 (AFP) - Tiny Singapore's population is expected to decline by 200,000 as companies lay off a massive number of foreign workers during a worsening recession, Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse said.

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</noscript>The job cuts, which would include highly-paid expatriates and permanent residents, will hurt domestic consumption and help push the economy into its sharpest decline since independence in 1965, said the report received by AFP on Tuesday. A loss of 200,000 jobs would amount to more than four percent of the population. Credit Suisse said the economic slowdown in the trade-sensitive city-state had so far been driven by a sharp decline in exports, while domestic demand held up. But for this year, "consumption growth should also slow, in part because of our expectation that Singapore's population will potentially drop by 200,000 by 2010" due to job losses, it said.

"Historically, Singapore's foreign population has tended to expand during high growth periods and contract during recessionary periods," the report said. "Given the strong foreigner population growth in recent years, this trend is unlikely to change in this downturn." Of the 800,000 jobs created from 2004 to the third quarter of last year, Credit Suisse estimated that more than 500,000 were filled by foreigners and permanent residents.
About 200,000 of those jobs were in manufacturing and almost another 200,000 were in the financial and business services. Most of these jobs were filled by expatriate workers who earn more than the average Singaporean, it said.

"As a result, job losses are likely to hit the Singaporean economy hard because they affect more highly paid workers and could result in a semi-permanent drop in the population," the report said. As of mid-2008, Singapore had a total estimated population of 4.84 million people, including 3.64 million citizens and permanent residents, Statistics Department data showed. The rest, more than one million, are foreign workers and their families. With the impact of falling domestic demand exacerbating declining exports, the economy was likely to contract by 2.8 percent this year, Credit Suisse said.

This would leave the economy in its worse shape ever, after 2001 when it shrank by 2.4 percent. The economy grew 1.5 percent last year compared with 7.7 percent in 2007. Despite the expected layoffs, Singapore's Acting Minister for Manpower Gan Kim Yong said the city-state would still need overseas labour. Gan said that foreign workers allowed Singapore companies to remain globally competitive and contributed to keeping jobs within the country. "If companies become uncompetitive in Singapore, they may decide to relocate to other countries and we will lose more jobs. This will be a lose-lose outcome," he said in parliament Monday.

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

more breathing space!

 

[CENWEN]

Home > Breaking News > Singapore > Story
Jan 20, 2009
Jobless may hit 300,000 <!--10 min-->
<!-- headline one : start --> <!-- headline one : end --> <!-- Author --> <!-- show image if available --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr></tr> <tr> </tr> <tr> </tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="padlrt8 georgia11 darkgrey bold">By Robin Chan

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'The contraction in exports and output and consolidation in financial and business services could lead to sizeable job losses, which, in turn, may drive as many as 200,000 foreigners and permanent residents out of Singapore,' the economists said. -- ST FILE PHOTO: MALCOLM MCLEOD
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A NEW Credit Suisse report has predicted an astonishing 300,000 jobs could be lost in Singapore this year and next. Most of the affected would be foreigners, who would then have to leave the country, leading to a drop in Singapore's population, it said. But other economists and industry body heads say the Credit Suisse figure is extreme, even in an unprecedented crisis such as this one. Monday's report was written by Singapore-based Credit Suisse economists Cem Karacadag and Kun Lung Wu. They estimated that notwithstanding government action, a deep, economy-wide recession will mean that 160,000 jobs could be lost in the services sector, another 100,000 from manufacturing and about 40,000 in construction over this year and next.

Most of the job losses would be from the 725,000 new jobs created over the past five years and were filled mainly by foreigners, who make up a quarter of the population here. 'As harsh as our assumptions may seem, they only imply that the economy gives up all of the jobs it created in 2008 and a portion of the new jobs in 2007,' they wrote. Of the total, 200,000 would be foreigners and permanent residents (PRs) who, assuming they leave Singapore, would reduce its population by around 160,000 to 4.68 million. The drop in population would have serious implications for any economic recovery as it would lead to a fall in private consumption, a surge in unemployment to 5.6 per cent in 2010 - it was 2.2 per cent last September - and a plunge in residential property prices.

The figures represent a loss of about 10 per cent of Singapore's workforce of just under three million. By comparison, the Asian financial crisis led to job losses of over 30,000, or about 1.4 per cent of the workforce. However, other economists say the numbers are far too bearish - even given the severity of the global crisis. OCBC economist Selena Ling said: 'The socio-economic implications of that would be severe... The figures discount the Government policy responses which would kick in before we get to that stage.' CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said: 'Our labour growth has been well above trend... so job losses of that magnitude are not unimaginable. 'But the Government has indicated that it is willing to dip into the reserves, and it has shown a strong response to the crisis right from the word go.' Still they believe that in a worst case scenario, job losses here could reach 100,000.

President of the Singapore Manufacturers' Federation Renny Yeo also disputed the numbers. He said Singapore has seen growth in higher-end manufacturing industries such as biotech, and renewable energy which are not as susceptible to a dip in consumer demand. The manufacturing sector employs about 230,000. The report comes just days before the Budget announcement on Thursday, which will set the tone for how the Government plans to tackle a worsening recession. In Parliament on Monday, ministers faced questions from MPs over the job market. Acting Minister for Manpower Gan Kim Yong said that job losses this year could exceed 30,000, while Minister for Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang said more than 30,000 new jobs would be created this year.

 

[myfoot123]

Is that true? I can finally take MRT and buses with much comfort and breathing space. It makes travelling to work a much happier journey. Otherwise people will not want to work because of our uncomfortable transport system.

 

[congo9]

Despite the expected layoffs, Singapore's Acting Minister for Manpower Gan Kim Yong said the city-state would still need overseas labour. Gan said that foreign workers allowed Singapore companies to remain globally competitive and contributed to keeping jobs within the country. "If companies become uncompetitive in Singapore, they may decide to relocate to other countries and we will lose more jobs. This will be a lose-lose outcome," he said in parliament Monday.

I thought singaporen has world class education system ? Why are we still depending on cheap labour to move the economy ? Is the pay for this kind job too low to even survive in Singapore ? Why SIngpaorean are not biting ? May be the truth is that .........

WAGES and CPF can be cut , but not the RENTAL INCOME which is part of the business cost which is flowing into all the Goverment link company, CANNOT BE CUT !

 

[Einfield]

I thought singaporen has world class education system ? Why are we still depending on cheap labour to move the economy ? Is the pay for this kind job too low to even survive in Singapore ? Why SIngpaorean are not biting ? May be the truth is that .........

WAGES and CPF can be cut , but not the RENTAL INCOME which is part of the business cost which is flowing into all the Goverment link company, CANNOT BE CUT !

How can rental income be cut? When gov's land policy is jacking up the price of everything, the true fact is, we are not competitive is mostly cause by our gov policies, their fixation in maximizing profits in all areas.

They got lost and forgot that they are suppose to run a country, not a corporation.

 

[Ah Guan]

Cannot be lah

The last Sunday Times say although the property sales have been quiet, the rental market is still very good

 

[JPMorgan888]

They wont be missed!

 

[JPMorgan888]

Is that true? I can finally take MRT and buses with much comfort and breathing space. It makes travelling to work a much happier journey. Otherwise people will not want to work because of our uncomfortable transport system.

you must be a lesser mortal

 

[johnny333]

They wont be missed!

Their $$$ will be missed & the PAP will try to make up for the lost $$$ from ....?

 

[i_am_belle]

its nice going to expatsingapore forum & reading abt those arrogant expats being laid off ... & having to go home ... & asking each other 'which is the best mover company to ship my stuff home ?' ...

one was retrenched even b4 he started work ! his family was preparing to come to s'pore when he was informed 'no need to come leow' ... shows his job is not that stable in the first place, wonder why is the company even paying an expat package ? can't a local do the darn job ?

 

[VeryWise]

I read in the papers last week that in Korea, the annual salary of a garbage collector is about $40K, which is a lot even in Korea. Many graduates will actually apply for these so-called "lowly" jobs (in SG terms) because it will guarantee higher starting pay and stable employment.

Well, if SG can pay this amount, I guess many ppl will be willing to work as garbage collector. My point is that SG might be able to achieve 1st world living standards but only a small portion of the population will enjoy it. The majority that suffer from wage depression, it will only become more and more expensive to live in SG.

 

[DearestGodlikeWarlord]

I have always advocated the art, beauty and sense of (massive) population reduction, but I think it is too soon to pop the champagne because the lost numbers would simply be soon replenished by the granting in of more lesser foreigners (Chinese, Vietnamese and Indian nationals including some worthless Taiwanese who are afraid of being attacked by the People's Republic of China and be killed along with their entire families) in one way or another.

 

[congo9]

I read in the papers last week that in Korea, the annual salary of a garbage collector is about $40K, which is a lot even in Korea. Many graduates will actually apply for these so-called "lowly" jobs (in SG terms) because it will guarantee higher starting pay and stable employment.

Well, if SG can pay this amount, I guess many ppl will be willing to work as garbage collector. My point is that SG might be able to achieve 1st world living standards but only a small portion of the population will enjoy it. The majority that suffer from wage depression, it will only become more and more expensive to live in SG.

I be the 1st to apply for the garbage collector job if they pay hit 30k per month !

 

[cunnosieur]

WHO SAY FT POPULATION WILL SHRINK.

For eg:

The RELATIONSHIP MGRs (Mei Meis) of HIYA HIYA BANK (See thread on BOC) will find 'other ways' and having 'One leg two legs' to sustain their livelihood...."Lao Bang...Lao Bang"...

:oIo:

 

[Hope]

Shrinking population

Job losses to cut Singapore population by 4% : Top bank

<cite class="auth">AFP - Wednesday, January 21

</cite>SINGAPORE, Jan 20, 2009 (AFP) - Tiny Singapore's population is expected to decline by 200,000 as companies lay off a massive number of foreign workers during a worsening recession, Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse said.

<!--Vendor: Yahoo, Format: Standard --><script language="javascript"> if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object(); window.yzq_d['kjJDu3xsfEo-']='&U=13fbkrvih%2fN%3dkjJDu3xsfEo-%2fC%3d658500.12918151.13168046.2013436%2fD%3dLREC%2fB%3d5616592%2fV%3d1'; </script><noscript>

</noscript>The job cuts, which would include highly-paid expatriates and permanent residents, will hurt domestic consumption and help push the economy into its sharpest decline since independence in 1965, said the report received by AFP on Tuesday. A loss of 200,000 jobs would amount to more than four percent of the population. Credit Suisse said the economic slowdown in the trade-sensitive city-state had so far been driven by a sharp decline in exports, while domestic demand held up. But for this year, "consumption growth should also slow, in part because of our expectation that Singapore's population will potentially drop by 200,000 by 2010" due to job losses, it said.

"Historically, Singapore's foreign population has tended to expand during high growth periods and contract during recessionary periods," the report said. "Given the strong foreigner population growth in recent years, this trend is unlikely to change in this downturn." Of the 800,000 jobs created from 2004 to the third quarter of last year, Credit Suisse estimated that more than 500,000 were filled by foreigners and permanent residents.
About 200,000 of those jobs were in manufacturing and almost another 200,000 were in the financial and business services. Most of these jobs were filled by expatriate workers who earn more than the average Singaporean, it said.

"As a result, job losses are likely to hit the Singaporean economy hard because they affect more highly paid workers and could result in a semi-permanent drop in the population," the report said. As of mid-2008, Singapore had a total estimated population of 4.84 million people, including 3.64 million citizens and permanent residents, Statistics Department data showed. The rest, more than one million, are foreign workers and their families. With the impact of falling domestic demand exacerbating declining exports, the economy was likely to contract by 2.8 percent this year, Credit Suisse said.

This would leave the economy in its worse shape ever, after 2001 when it shrank by 2.4 percent. The economy grew 1.5 percent last year compared with 7.7 percent in 2007. Despite the expected layoffs, Singapore's Acting Minister for Manpower Gan Kim Yong said the city-state would still need overseas labour. Gan said that foreign workers allowed Singapore companies to remain globally competitive and contributed to keeping jobs within the country. "If companies become uncompetitive in Singapore, they may decide to relocate to other countries and we will lose more jobs. This will be a lose-lose outcome," he said in parliament Monday.

Wow,you are projecting a 4.2% population decline,so Spore in one stroke,jump fr the top population growth in the wrodl to the nation with the highest population decline.

MM Lee must be very fond of setting world records,whatever line that may be.

A nation of jokers!

 

[batman1]

If more FTs laid off,then the MIW will be crying father crying mother ! LOL !!!

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

I have always advocated the art, beauty and sense of (massive) population reduction, but I think it is too soon to pop the champagne because the lost numbers would simply be soon replenished by the granting in of more lesser foreigners (Chinese, Vietnamese and Indian nationals including some worthless Taiwanese who are afraid of being attacked by the People's Republic of China and be killed along with their entire families) in one way or another.

keling no need to keep on harping on taiwanese the most useless are kelings and bangalas,

 

[DearestGodlikeWarlord]

keling no need to keep on harping on taiwanese the most useless are kelings and bangalas,

Any Indian is better than a Taiwanese. Also, I've become an Indian all of a sudden too LOL.

So shut up, you dumb Chink cum Muslim wannabe hypocrite.

Chinks like you who enjoy inciting discontentment among the other minority races in your country especially when they did nothing to you at all, should be arrested and be thrown into jail. For life.

You should die in prison really.

 

[Jah_rastafar_I]

Any Indian is better than a Taiwanese. Also, I've become an Indian all of a sudden too LOL.

So shut up, you dumb Chink cum Muslim wannabe hypocrite.

Chinks like you who enjoy inciting discontentment among the other minority races in your country especially when they did nothing to you at all, should be arrested and be thrown into jail. For life.

You should die in prison really.

Keling no need to pretend to act like a snake. Opps forgot that's ur natural behaviour.


Keling sad to see u pretend to be someone ur not.