China’s struggles with supply glut threaten to extend deflation
BY
BLOOMBERG
March 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM GMT+8
The latest negative CPI reading “is a pretty good illustration that this deflationary environment is a permanent rather than transitory phenomenon,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.
GREG BAKER—AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
China’s intensifying deflationary pressure threatens to persist long after seasonal distortions fade away, unless the government drains excess capacity in the economy that’s putting pressure on prices.
Consumer inflation in the year to date has turned negative through January-February for the first time since 2021. While an earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year holiday helped push price growth
below zero last month, the downswing was far sharper than predicted, suggesting inflation was feeble even when adjusted for seasonality.
For global banks like Citigroup Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc., the worry is that consumer prices could hover near contraction territory for the rest of the year if robust production overwhelms demand at home. As the People’s Bank of China
prioritizes yuan stability over monetary easing in the near term, dragging the country out of deflation will likely hinge on the ability of policymakers to tackle overcapacity.
The latest CPI reading “is a pretty good illustration that this deflationary environment is a permanent rather than transitory phenomenon,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. “Overcapacity, plus a relatively conservative monetary stance, would actually prolong this deflation pressure rather than alleviating it.”