Make your Margin Prediction Here - Hougang By Elections

[rotiprata]

where is our bro sam leong....?

my guess.....wp: 58-59%....32-33%

 

[nato33]

I noticed most of you expect a 2 way contest. But with so much "face" at stake for PAP, I won't be surprised if they have a trump card up their sleeve by "encouraging" a 3rd candidate to split votes. This will give residents who may not be happy be either party a choice. Granted these numbers are small but a 3rd candidate will allow a lot more wayang and excuses to take place since PAP know that in a straight fight, they will definitely lose. Its just the margin to reflect the feeling of the ground.

With the numerous MRT, foreign labour, COE etc issues touching a raw nerve of many Singaporeans, PAP have already lost at the national level. At the municipal level, at least they can tempt some old or less fortunate citizens with some promise of assistance to "buy" their votes. Otherwise, the incumbent WP have probably shown Hougang residents all these years that WP can manage Hougang well and the quality is already proven so there is not much PAP can nit pick about

 

[kingrant]

My margin will be >30%. 35% even.

Desmond Choo is the nephew of Choo Wee kiang. former PAP MP, convicted for corruption and famous for hos racist anti-Indian remark!

 

[kukubird58]

hahaha....must support my idol...
papee=10%
wp= 30%
kukubird (election agent ah ram)= 60%

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

WP will suffer at least a 5% vote swing. If it suffers more than 8% vote swing, it would mean that middle voters all around Singapore may be taking a second look at WP's performance so far.

The vote swing of 5% to 6% is not something extraordinary. SPP at Potong Pasir suffered 6% of vote swing in GE 2011 in spite of a general upswing for opposition parties. That is without any scandal, so to speak.

The reason why WP won 64.8% in HG in GE2011 is because of its better branding as well as the urgency for HG voters to vote WP because LTK has just walked out of HG and there is a real fear of losing all seats for WP.

In this by-election, there is no longer the urgency or necessity to ensure WP presence in parliament because it has 5 elected plus 2 NCMP. Furthermore, Yaw-gate has taken a big hit on the confidence level of voters on WP. Thus having a 5% to 8% vote swing is very likely, if not more.

Thus, it will be WP - 59.8% to 56.8% anything under 55% for WP will be quite alarming for WP.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Zombie]

i dun want to analyse, just a guess

WP 68.88% - lucky number

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Please lah, I am not that despicable as WPIB! There are no lies. If anything, I have just kept quiet on very damaging truth on WP while WPIB here have gone around to spread falsehood and lies about me. I have been very forgiving so far, just don't make me throw my cards at you guys.

Goh Meng Seng

I concur.

Except I think there will be slightly more spoilt votes, making WP 62%, PAP 35%.

GMS has been deliberately throwing off false signals, giving misleading information and on a couple of instances even outright lies. I think he has seriously gone over the edge to resort to this. There is really no need to stoop so low (Low??). The BE result will speak for itself.

GMS also needs to realize there is a distinction between national level politics and local level politics, and sometimes you can have both working together, and sometimes both working separately. But what the hell. He prefers the comfort position of the keyboard critic compared to getting his hands dirty.

WP has been touching base and keeping HG residents' spirits up, and also taking care of their needs well. The people can see that and its no secret.

 

[Char_Azn]

WP: 58% PAP: 42%

1)YSL
2)WP haven't exactly light up the Parliament
3)With Aljunied in the bag, some of the supporters may think they no longer need to continue carrying the torch
4)Desmond Choo - Staying on to work at Hougang despite losing

WP can consider it a very huge victory if they can hit the same results as the last GE. I cant see them going anywhere near 70%

 

[deepblue0911]

Please lah, I am not that despicable as WPIB! There are no lies. If anything, I have just kept quiet on very damaging truth on WP while WPIB here have gone around to spread falsehood and lies about me. I have been very forgiving so far, just don't make me throw my cards at you guys.

Goh Meng Seng

What falsehood? Please cite concrete evidence and not hurl baseless accusations.

You've not answered my question on why did you change your tune? From insiduously prompting a 3-corner fight, to now saying this should be a straight fight between PAP and WP. Did you change position? Why?

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

I can see that you are rather realistic here, unlike the others who seems to have bloated ego and confidence over WP.



Goh Meng Seng

WP: 58% PAP: 42%

1)YSL
2)WP haven't exactly light up the Parliament
3)With Aljunied in the bag, some of the supporters may think they no longer need to continue carrying the torch
4)Desmond Choo - Staying on to work at Hougang despite losing

WP can consider it a very huge victory if they can hit the same results as the last GE. I cant see them going anywhere near 70%

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

It is very simple, 3 corner fight will only benefit WP if the 3rd candidate is weak. That's quite elementary.

WP is trying to spike NSP into 3 corner fight after knowing Nicole Seah has declared that she is not contesting. That's good try but as I have said, Sebastian being a Chinese educated person, won't be fooled that easily. They would rather let WP face the music itself.

WP will not be able to blame anybody else except themselves if they perform badly, which it is really within my expectation.

Goh Meng Seng

What falsehood? Please cite concrete evidence and not hurl baseless accusations.

You've not answered my question on why did you change your tune? From insiduously prompting a 3-corner fight, to now saying this should be a straight fight between PAP and WP. Did you change position? Why?

 

[deepblue0911]

It is very simple, 3 corner fight will only benefit WP if the 3rd candidate is weak. That's quite elementary.

WP is trying to spike NSP into 3 corner fight after knowing Nicole Seah has declared that she is not contesting. That's good try but as I have said, Sebastian being a Chinese educated person, won't be fooled that easily. They would rather let WP face the music itself.

WP will not be able to blame anybody else except themselves if they perform badly, which it is really within my expectation.

Goh Meng Seng

This is really ridiculous, Mr. Goh. You're saying WP was trying to stir up a 3-corner fight? It was you, through your blog and various MSM interviews, trying to engineer a 3-corner fight.

My goodness! You're really shameless.

 

[Zombie]

I can see that you are rather realistic here, unlike the others who seems to have bloated ego and confidence over WP.
Goh Meng Seng

if you are realistic, you are already tampines mp... dude

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Please lah, I am not that despicable as WPIB! There are no lies. If anything, I have just kept quiet on very damaging truth on WP while WPIB here have gone around to spread falsehood and lies about me. I have been very forgiving so far, just don't make me throw my cards at you guys.

Goh Meng Seng

Don't think I don't know what you have been muttering to people about WP behind the scenes. You know very well that the truth spoken in a certain tone and in a certain context can almost be a lie, even if the factual content is preserved.

Besides the reason why I can you "below SPH" is because you now seem to take hearsay, street-talk and speculator and stir it all into one pile of shit to pass off as the "truth". As I've mentioned, even real veteran SPH journalists couldn't produce that.

If your behaviour toward WP thus far can be termed "forgiving", then I say just bring it on. If you have anything that you think is going to damage WP it will come out of your big mouth sooner or later, so we must as well hear it from you sooner. The truth will stand tall. If you want to go down faster, all the better. Come let me help you.

 

[deepblue0911]

Don't think I don't know what you have been muttering to people about WP behind the scenes. You know very well that the truth spoken in a certain tone and in a certain context can almost be a lie, even if the factual content is preserved.

Besides the reason why I can you "below SPH" is because you now seem to take hearsay, street-talk and speculator and stir it all into one pile of shit to pass off as the "truth". As I've mentioned, even real veteran SPH journalists couldn't produce that.

If your behaviour toward WP thus far can be termed "forgiving", then I say just bring it on. If you have anything that you think is going to damage WP it will come out of your big mouth sooner or later, so we must as well hear it from you sooner. The truth will stand tall. If you want to go down faster, all the better. Come let me help you.

I've never seen anyone as despicable as GMS.

 

[Zombie]

WP is trying to spike ...

where is my 惊风散?

 

[gsfosnis]

The margin could be wider. It depends on whether AMK GRC wants to take a dip in rating come GE2016.
It LHL's call.
Keep WP busy in Hougang SMC and Aljunied GRC or take Hougang and let
WP focus on AMK GRC come GE2016.

 

[gsfosnis]

Background:
2011 - WP 64.8% (Margin 29.6%) PAP 35.2%
2006 - WP 62.7% (Margin 25.4%) PAP 37.3%
2001 - WP 55% (Margin 10%) PAP 45%
1997 - WP 58% (Margin 16%) PAP 42%
1991 - WP 52.8%(Margin 5.6%) PAP 47.2%

My prediction - WP by 30%(margin)

Those who think that PAP will win please go down to Blk 57B, New Upper Changi Rd, #01-1402, PCF Building, Singapore 463057 and ask for Lau Ping Sum. He probably will laugh at you. He is also taking a rest after replacing Cynthia Phua and Lim Hwee Hua for Paya Lebar and Serangoon only last week as Branch Chairpersons with one new MP candidate who is a lawyer and another old time party veteran.

The margin could be wider.
It depends on whether AMK GRC wants to take a dip in rating come GE2016.
Its LHL's call.
Keep WP busy in Hougang SMC and Aljunied GRC or take Hougang and let
WP focus on AMK GRC come GE 2016.

 

[killborat]

Wp 0% pap 100%

 

[cheowyonglee]

GMS is a real bastard need to be kick hard and deep at his two dangling smelly pussy balls.