Make your Margin Prediction Here - Hougang By Elections

[rusty]

the margin can only increase because of the delay in decision for by-election. What is more worse than depriving the ward supporting the opposition their representation in parliament? It is quite obvious that the people there are not looking a goodie bags and more keen on what's right and wrong.

If decisions are based on this

 

[aurvandil]

bro,
the second point you've raised is moot. the PAP wouldn't get themselves too dirty with the Yaw-gate. briefly mentioned and they will move right along. the accountability issue would be their primary game plan.
the third force that you've mentioned may be an issue, but my kopi sessions around Hougang gave me the impression that folks here root for WP, any third party in can kiss goodbye to their deposit, save for our Captain Goh. still waiting for him to put his money where his mouth is

There's more to the 2nd pt than is widely known. Some threads here have hinted. Dun want to prematurely let the cat out of the bag in case a decision is made not to play the card.

On pt 3, this is a good opportunity to gather some intel on what will happen in the messy post LKY era. The old man is marching steadily to the grave and they cannot keep hiding and pretending forever. Victory will not be winning Hougang. Victory will be coming in second and doing better than the offical PAP candidate. Bonus is if they can cause the PAP candidate to lose deposit. A good showing here will follow up on the good showing in the PE. It will help persuade many who are still not certain to join their cause as it will show everyone that the PE was not a fluke and there is solid support for them when they come out.

 

[cunnilaubu]

WP - 65.3
PAP - 32.2
Spoilt - 2.5

 

[zhihau]

the margin can only increase because of the delay in decision for by-election

bro,

it's just for merry making, what's your prediction on the margin?

based on my previous prediction, using only the valid votes, PAP: 33.16% & WP: 66.84% (2 decimal places)

 

[zhihau]

A good showing here will follow up on the good showing in the PE. It will help persuade many who are still not certain to join their cause as it will show everyone that the PE was not a fluke and there is solid support for them when they come out.

noted with grace, bro
me have much to learn

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

I concur.

Except I think there will be slightly more spoilt votes, making WP 62%, PAP 35%.

GMS has been deliberately throwing off false signals, giving misleading information and on a couple of instances even outright lies. I think he has seriously gone over the edge to resort to this. There is really no need to stoop so low (Low??). The BE result will speak for itself.

GMS also needs to realize there is a distinction between national level politics and local level politics, and sometimes you can have both working together, and sometimes both working separately. But what the hell. He prefers the comfort position of the keyboard critic compared to getting his hands dirty.

WP has been touching base and keeping HG residents' spirits up, and also taking care of their needs well. The people can see that and its no secret.

I'd just estimate at the same margin of the GE 2011, i.e. WP 65% and PAP 35%. For those who haven't been to Hougang and saw what's going on there, it really doesn't matter who WP fields as candidate and it doesn't matter who the candidate has been sleeping with. Hougang WP distribution of free groceries (rice, salt, sugar etc.) can last half a day long of queue. Hougang WP daytrips around Singapore or to Johor can command a convoy 15 buses, i.e. 600 passengers. No PAP wards can match that even with their RC and CCC manpower support. Comes 7th Lunar Month it's practically one dinner table invitation every other day. Running a political party and being an MP running a ward isn't like what GMS says, talking about policies and economics that nobody understands and many-a-times bewildering himself but pretending to understand, arguing off track and just showing others how clueslessly stubborn he is.

 

[aurvandil]

noted with grace, bro
me have much to learn

If the third force choses to come out, I think they can get votes not only from PAP voters because of the pedigree. They will probably also attract some WP voters who are disillusioned with WP because of the way things turned out. GMS mentioning of the stopping of Hammer sales because of embarassing questions is not speculation but fact.

How the vote will be split is anyone's guess since there is no empirical evidence to predict this scenario. The small size of Hougang SMC also makes the conduct of any secret surveys impossible.

 

[captainxerox]

wp win but smaller margin. 60% - 40%. hougangers are hardcore wp but some probably disillusioned by wp after 2011. those swing voters who voted for pap in 2006 and then wp in 2011, would swing back to pap in 2012.

 

[myfoot123]

I can easily predict the margin will hover around 70%. LTK and HG residents are KAKI TEOCHEW NAN.

WP winning card is high based on various combination factors:

1) HG residents want to shamed PAP for the 3rd election
2) The reason for (1) is because main stream medias have been high on bully tactic used by PAP
3) PAP is still harping on having more foreigners to irritate HG residents
4) Desmond Choo is meek sly fox, worse than Teo Ser Luck.
5) LKY come out to haunt the HG residents, there is need for gong and bang in HG to chase away this devil.
6) LTK moves to sack YSL is a strong sign of good leadership and he holds impartiality very well. Unlike PAP.
7). HG is a breeding root for opposition parties, losing HG to PAP is equivalent to losing Singaporean future.
8) LHL is a fucktard leader, there is no better time for HG to fuck him for the 3rd Election within a year.
9) Desmond Choo uncle is a greedy corrupted man, he can be easily bribed for $500 during his tenure as MP.
10) Desmond Choo looks down on Singapore women, he said women can't cook will not find a husband.
The above are some considerations for HG Residents to decide wisely at the ballot box.

 

[TwitSeng]

what if got multi-cornered contests

Article in February 2012
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_767548.html

 

[deepblue0911]

Wp: 60-62%
pap: 36-38%

 

[djent]

I don't have much faith. If WP wins, it would be low, nearly scrapping. Gov might win.

I go with

WP - 55%
GOV - 38%
Rubbish - 7%

I see pictures of needy people receiving foodstuffs or help from the gov grassroots and stuff like that. I have seen the look on the needy faces. They will not care who gives them as long as someone helps them. The gov is in a very good position, ironically, to help all these desperate people. They just rolled out some initiatives to help the Hougang people with cheap ambulance services to help old disabled folks go to hospital and such. All these, only the gov can do, if they turn the tap off, people will cry. These people would be very grateful and will vote for the gov again even if it is a packet of instant noodles. These are simple kind people who believed in returning kindness with kindness even though they are screwed by the gov, they don't know and they don't care to know.

I have seen also lots of well-to-do, well educated family men saying," I will vote only for the capable man, I will vote for the good of the good of Singapore, I will examine what good things who can offer, I will vote for whoever can give me good things ", or the," So far I don't know who the opposition candidate is, I don't know what the opposition candidate can do." while the country is going to the dogs. All these will vote gov.

I have people around me who's entire finance is based on the gov policies and will be screwed up big time if the influx of FTs is stopped. They bought HDB resale, renting them out, staying with parents etc.

Aljunied has taken over as opposition main base, so Hougang people might see more leverage on voting the gov so as to have more good facilities and ease of getting good things such as carpark fine waives and so on.

After all, how and why does anyone need to see MP? Must be in a bad state, so at least gov MP can help right away. Gov MP's face maybe not song to look at, but if nothing, also no need to see the face. If see face, can settle fast then no need to see anymore. So why not gov win? People finish work they go home watch TV, weekend go shopping, see foreigners only like to think they low class and stupid but never to know that the fellow earns more than him and lives better. Who cares who is the gov? Unless suddenly their HDB home value goes down because of a hospice nearby. Or else who cares?

This country revolves around money and good things.

In fact, it could be a good thing if Hougang falls into the gov hands again. The gov will be delighted and will instantly push for more good years. Their policies all bo bey chao one.The state is like a train going off its rails, going to plunge into a rocky cliffs. The driver now still feeling song song jiak coolu, if gov wins again, it will be machiam seeing a pretty girl suddenly flashing her beasts at him, siao chong nao and he will step on the speed pedal even faster, not the least concerned about the cliff ahead.

Power is a heady mix, power will destroy those that have no ability to wield power.

Power will only stay with the right people that respect power as a passing cloud and power will cripple the hearts of those that wants it forever.

It is too much to ask the Hougang people to repeat their heroics election after election. It is not fair for the good people of Hougang to be deprived of gov good things while others continue. It is time for others to take up this responsibilities. It must be one for all, all for one.

If the WP wins, very little can be done also, parliament still alot of bum fillers and yesman and women, people still get rammed in their backsides. Just a little bit of grass for people to chew on, and people will forget about the opposition. The GST rebates and stuff like that.

The country is already torn, but lots of people are in denial or too engrossed in their own complete world to bother, many think that just because they are educated and can earn a few dollars more they look down on others. Plenty of these kind of people around.

Sad to say but unless see coffin, or else no one will cry tears one. This country already animal farm.

 

[glockman]

wp win but smaller margin. 60% - 40%. hougangers are hardcore wp but some probably disillusioned by wp after 2011. those swing voters who voted for pap in 2006 and then wp in 2011, would swing back to pap in 2012.

I beg to differ. I don't see any reason for HG voters to be disillusioned. Yawgate is the only "kink" in WP's armour, and most would agree WP handled it very well. They took Yaw to task and then booted his ass out. As for the PAP, they have not effectively addressed the issues and concerns raised in 2011. In the past year, we still see a continuing inflow of FTs, we are looking at rising cost of lilving, wider income gap, more MIW dispensing "wisdom", etc. This is not a situation of having to choose between the devil and the deep blue sea. The folks at HG are not daft. So, WP should at least maintain its 2011 margin (30%). I won't be surprised if it hits 35%.

 

[avelc]

Never say never. Adam Lambert was the overwhelming favourite to win American Idol, but he didn't. Lehman Brothers was too big to fail but they did. The only sure thing is death and taxes.

Just enjoy the popcorn and drinks on 26th May...

 

[NoNewsGood]

Spoil - 15%
WP - 74%
PAP - 11% (lose deposit!!!!)

 

[3_M]

WP-58% (margin 20%)
PAP- 38%
Spoil - 4%

 

[Perspective]

Wp: 60-62%
pap: 36-38%

Your guess close to mine.

 

[myfoot123]

Never say never. Adam Lambert was the overwhelming favourite to win American Idol, but he didn't. Lehman Brothers was too big to fail but they did. The only sure thing is death and taxes.

Just enjoy the popcorn and drinks on 26th May...

Fair enough, sound like you were referring to PAP Inc?

 

[CakeLengKia]

My prediction:

WP: 61%
PAP: 39%

 

[Baluku]

WP will do a clean sweep.

Depending on how LTK walked the grounds with YAW before and if he and his kar kias are still walking the grounds..