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Make your Margin Prediction Here - Hougang By Elections

S

scroobal

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Background:
2011 - WP 64.8% (Margin 29.6%) PAP 35.2%
2006 - WP 62.7% (Margin 25.4%) PAP 37.3%
2001 - WP 55% (Margin 10%) PAP 45%
1997 - WP 58% (Margin 16%) PAP 42%
1991 - WP 52.8%(Margin 5.6%) PAP 47.2%

My prediction - WP by 30%(margin)

Those who think that PAP will win please go down to Blk 57B, New Upper Changi Rd, #01-1402, PCF Building, Singapore 463057 and ask for Lau Ping Sum. He probably will laugh at you. He is also taking a rest after replacing Cynthia Phua and Lim Hwee Hua for Paya Lebar and Serangoon only last week as Branch Chairpersons with one new MP candidate who is a lawyer and another old time party veteran.
 
scroobal said:
Background:
2011 - WP 64.8% (Margin 29.6%) PAP 35.2%
2006 - WP 62.7% (Margin 25.4%) PAP 37.3%
2001 - WP 55% (Margin 10%) PAP 45%
1997 - WP 58% (Margin 16%) PAP 42%
1991 - WP 52.8%(Margin 5.6%) PAP 47.2%

My prediction - WP by 30%(margin)

Those who think that PAP will win please go down to Blk 57B, New Upper Changi Rd, #01-1402, PCF Building, Singapore 463057 and ask for Lau Ping Sum. He probably will laugh at you. He is also taking a rest after replacing Cynthia Phua and Lim Hwee Hua for Paya Lebar and Serangoon only last week as Branch Chairpersons with one new MP candidate who is a lawyer and another old time party veteran.
Click to expand...

2012 - WP 68%, PAP 32% (Margin 36%)
 
zhihau said:
2012 Hougang BE:
spoilt votes: 2% (+/- 0.5%)
PAP: 32.5% (+/- 0.5%)
WP: 65.5% (+/- 0.5%)
Click to expand...

Guess correct you buying dinner right.

Spoilt vote around 3%

PAP: 29%

WP: 68%

Dr Evil: 120% no horse run.........:confused::*:
 
Workers Party = 59%
Pappy = 39%
Spoilt votes = 2%
 
the margin can only increase because of the delay in decision for by-election. What is more worse than depriving the ward supporting the opposition their representation in parliament? It is quite obvious that the people there are not looking a goodie bags and more keen on what's right and wrong.
 
scroobal said:
Background:
My prediction - WP by 30%(margin)
Click to expand...

This BE is hard to predict because of 2 key factors.

1) Will the hidden third force in Singapore politics show their hand and send a candidate to Hougang? If they do and the person is a well respected person formerly associated with the establishment, all bets are off.

2) How will the msm handle the on going sex scandal involving the underage girl? Will this be played up and used to tarnish WP's image at the last minute? Also will they bring back YSL by shining the spotlight on him just as we go into the BE campaign period?
 
I'd just estimate at the same margin of the GE 2011, i.e. WP 65% and PAP 35%. For those who haven't been to Hougang and saw what's going on there, it really doesn't matter who WP fields as candidate and it doesn't matter who the candidate has been sleeping with. Hougang WP distribution of free groceries (rice, salt, sugar etc.) can last half a day long of queue. Hougang WP daytrips around Singapore or to Johor can command a convoy 15 buses, i.e. 600 passengers. No PAP wards can match that even with their RC and CCC manpower support. Comes 7th Lunar Month it's practically one dinner table invitation every other day. Running a political party and being an MP running a ward isn't like what GMS says, talking about policies and economics that nobody understands and many-a-times bewildering himself but pretending to understand, arguing off track and just showing others how clueslessly stubborn he is.

To be fair and not to be misguidedly arrogant, WP success in Hougang hinged on the factor that then, Hougang was WP's only ward. Whole party resources could be committed there. Now that Aljunied GRC has been won, the resources have to be spread around modeled after Hougang, hopefully with more resources forthcoming.
 
aurvandil said:
This BE is hard to predict because of 2 key factors.
Click to expand...

bro,
the second point you've raised is moot. the PAP wouldn't get themselves too dirty with the Yaw-gate. briefly mentioned and they will move right along. the accountability issue would be their primary game plan.
the third force that you've mentioned may be an issue, but my kopi sessions around Hougang gave me the impression that folks here root for WP, any third party in can kiss goodbye to their deposit, save for our Captain Goh. still waiting for him to put his money where his mouth is :D:D:D
 
aurvandil said:
This BE is hard to predict because of 2 key factors.

1) Will the hidden third force in Singapore politics show their hand and send a candidate to Hougang? If they do and the person is a well respected person formerly associated with the establishment, all bets are off.

2) How will the msm handle the on going sex scandal involving the underage girl? Will this be played up and used to tarnish WP's image at the last minute? Also will they bring back YSL by shining the spotlight on him just as we go into the BE campaign period?
Click to expand...

Most important of all, will the PAP be in an attack mode or a defensive mode. Although YSL and other sex related issues are fodder for weak minded people, WP is in a position to control this. If they take on an aggressive stance and attack policies, PAP would have no choice but to go on the defensive. This is important to claim the 3 to 4% points on the final days.
 
aurvandil said:
This BE is hard to predict because of 2 key factors.


2) How will the msm handle the on going sex scandal involving the underage girl? Will this be played up and used to tarnish WP's image at the last minute? Also will they bring back YSL by shining the spotlight on him just as we go into the BE campaign period?
Click to expand...

Maybe MSM could also throw some lights on SCDF and CNB sex scandal also. It involved public funds while the underage case was private
 
Fook Seng said:
This is important to claim the 3 to 4% points on the final days.
Click to expand...

the last thing PAP need to do is to repeat a JG incident and having their cadre to put pamphlets under the doors of the constituents. the Yaw-gate will only be briefly mentioned, then the projects DC had dished out will continue to hog the limelight. they will try to brush away issues like the MRT faults, rising costs of living and high FT influx.
 
scroobal said:
Background:
2011 - WP 64.8% (Margin 29.6%) PAP 35.2%
2006 - WP 62.7% (Margin 25.4%) PAP 37.3%
2001 - WP 55% (Margin 10%) PAP 45%
1997 - WP 58% (Margin 16%) PAP 42%
1991 - WP 52.8%(Margin 5.6%) PAP 47.2%
Click to expand...


TFBH: WP 62%, Papaya 35%, spoilt 3%
 
I predict a close fight and PAP can even win.
The Yaw scandal and WP's bad performance can only swing the voters towards PAP. How much the swing, nobody will know until the results are out.
 
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