Leong Sze Hian did the following analysis on how "funny numbers" were used in Budget 2010. Have highlighted the part on how Mr Mah seems to have given a misleading impression on subletting.
http://theonlinecitizen.com/2010/03/budget-debate-statistics-uniquely-singapore/
Budget debate statistics: Uniquely Singapore?
By Leong Sze Hian
According to the article “Parliament: Transformation budget for future” published in My Paper on Mar 5, the Finance Minister was quoted as having rebutted opposition MP Low Thia Khiang’s (Hougang) claim that the Government had depressed wages of lower-income citizens by letting in more foreign workers.
Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam said: “By allowing the economy to grow rapidly in the second half of the (last) decade, we were able to bring unemployment down and grow the incomes of Singaporeans.”
Ample statistics were cited: the unemployment rate for residents fell from 6 per cent in 2003 to 2.4 per cent by end-2007; median income grew by 20 per cent over the decade after adjustment for inflation, while that of low-income households grew by 7 per cent over the decade.
Firstly, is the 7 per cent figure quoted for the lower-income households also adjusted for inflation?
To put things in perspective, the bottom quintile of households’ income declined by about 1.7 per cent per annum in real terms from 1998 to 2008. In 2009, median income dropped by a further 2.5 per cent in real terms.
In Parliament, Mr Tharman also gave an example of a couple in their mid-20s earning an income in the lowest 20 per cent bracket. Together, they earn about $1,500 a month, own a three-room flat and have two children.
The Finance Minister said that over the next 60 years, this family can expect help totalling about $460,000, after accounting for inflation. (Source: “No lack of help for low-wage workers”, ST, Mar 5)
There is no detailed break-down of how the $460,000 is derived. How is the inflation adjustment done? For example, does it mean that a $1,000 benefit adjusted for inflation at 2 per cent may be counted as an increasing amount every year such that it will be $2,208 and $3,281 in the 40th and 60th year respectively? Are there any countries in the world that calculates social benefits to citizens in this way?
The mainstream media also reports that from this year’s budget, each Singaporean in the bottom 10 per cent of income earners will get $869 in benefits, including GST credits, living cost rebates and top-ups to CPF accounts.
Most of these benefits are not extra cash that can be utilised.
For example, Medisave top-ups can only be used for medical expenses.
Top-ups to Post-secondary school Education Accounts can only be used when the children enter tertiary education, by which time the increase in fees may be more than the top-ups
Only 29 per cent of Workfare is paid in cash with the balance 71 per cent credited to the CPF account (not the Ordinary Account).
GST Credits are to offset the GST increase and not extra cash per se.
Electricity tariffs, property taxes, and Service and Conservancy Charges have all increased over the years.
While there are course fee subsidies given for Workforce Development Agency-approved courses as well as bonus payments upon completion of training under the new Workfare Training Supplement scheme, how can we assume that the lower-income family will be able to find the time to go for such training?
On subletting concerns, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said that of the 682,000 flats that have fulfilled the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) and are eligible for subletting, only 23,200 or 3 per cent are sublet, which suggests that most flat owners are buying their flats for occupation, and not rental.
However, according to the report “More turn to sub-letting HDB flats” by Channel News Asia on Nov 9, 2009, between April last year and March this year, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) approved 22,754 such applications, or 4,019 units more than in the previous year.
So, is it that only 23,200 flats are sublet in total, or 22,754 sub-let applications were approved in just one year?
Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng said that the Government hears and understands Singaporeans’ concerns about the influx of immigrants in recent years. So it has refined the requirements for permanent residents (PRs) and new citizens, even as it continues to take them in to top up Singapore’s declining population. As one indication, there were 59,500 new PRs last year, down from 79,200 in 2008, and 19,900 new citizens, compared to 20,500 a year ago.
However, with unemployment rising to an average of 87,000 in 2009 during Singapore’s worst recession, is it justified that the yearly intake of new PRs and citizens declined by only 20,300 or 20 per cent?