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ginfreely

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Trouble is, some even think they are MY speed demons when already on Singapore roads.

Oh that is another story, they should behave themselves when on Singapore roads, do write email to LTA or traffic police to ask them to do their job...
 

Stevewish

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Loyal
Could advise the followings whether it is official? My friend told me only new projects will be affected.

introduction of a stamp duty of 2%, specifically for Johor, on foreign buyers.
From Jan 1, 2014, foreigners will no longer be allowed to buy any property below RM1 million, up from RM500,000 previously.

Thank you.
 

nextreal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Iskandar - golden goose kena slayed

Valdez, is this written by you? Interesting read, and I think many will have similar thoughts. However, I like to offer my differing view.

It wasn't long ago, around Nov 12 and especially after the May GE, when many were extremely bullish about the prospect on IM. Euphoria was at an all time high when most, if not all units were snapped up on the first day or two of launch.

Yet during the past 2 months, many people - investors, those on the sideline, naysayers, etc, have been turning bearish on IM. Recently at the PropertyGuru MPS, I also heard quite a bit of such talk at the coffee area and some booths.

Has the IM golden goose been really slayed?

To me, this is classical recency effect affecting the sentiments and mood of the general public.

When SGD/MYR breached 2.61 in late Sep, many were "predicting" the pair would hit 2.7 by year's end. When the cross slipped back to 2.54 a few weeks ago, a lot of people thought that MYR had strengthened and would continue to do so. With the slew of increased property curbs recently, many will naturally feel that IM, and even Malaysia, has or will lose its shine.

This feeling is entirely understandable. In the trading domain, this is fear at play. This fear of tumbling (conversely, the greed of wanting more) has a proven record of weeding out the uninitiated. If you can tide out the short-term adjustments, you'll likely reap greater rewards in the longer term. Yes, I believe that a short-term correction is in play, but I also believe strongly that it will be short.

Traditionally, property curbs have a reeling effect on speculators and the general public, but after a short while, the effects wear off. Just look at Singapore's first 6 rounds of property cooling measures which only dented the buyers' appetite mildly for a month or too. The only "curb" (which I don't technically term as one) that seemed to have caused substantial damage is the 7th round involving TDSR.

Understandably, with Malaysia's and Johor's recent bout of announcements, and all within a space of 4-6 weeks, many of us will be taken aback. However, let me put forth my reasoning that in a matter of months, investors will likely flock back to IM.

1. Fundamentals haven't changed. IRDA has been doing a good job with attracting investors, both local and foreign, and will continue to do so. In around 8 years, IM has taken delivery of many new mega infrastructure projects like highways, townships and rejuvenation projects, and many others are on the cards. Those committed are starting or are on track to deliver their projects. Of note are those institutions in Educity, healthcare projects in Medini and JB, new theme parks in and around Medini and Desaru, and mega commercial / retail projects like Southkey, City Square extension and Medini Mall expansion. Don't forget the newly completed Pinewoods Studio. And of course, inter-state RTS is fast becoming a reality and HSR, contrary to my understanding, hasn't been shelved. All these will continue to support population influx, especially for interstate migration, and strong job growth, especially for a skilled and higher-paid workforce.

2. Regional and world economics are getting better. We are expecting better economical conditions in 2014 for US, Europe and China. Abenomics has not only dug Japan out of the sinkhole, but placed Toyko back in the investment map. Nearer to home, regional countries will likely all post growth in 2013 and are forecast to improve going forward in 2014. Certainly in Singapore, our sentiments are at a 5-year high. Malaysia is not faring any worse, despite likely to miss their forecast performance by up to 1%.

3. Malaysian property prices are still reasonable. Yes, prices in IM, KL and Penang have spiraled out of most locals' reach, but in reality, the Malaysian salary index had grown faster than the property price index. More importantly, with Singapore's strong currency, we should find properties there being still reasonably priced. After my recent trip to Penang, I was presently surprised that well-situated properties there have mostly remained under RM1k psf. That's less than S$400 psf for literally a beachfront condo at Gurney Drive, Tg Bungah and Gelugor. In IM, prices at Puteri Harbour has reeled back to RM800+ psf and Horizon Hills will still see new terraces being launched at RM400+ psf. Yes, they are expensive by past Malaysian standards, but in my opinion, Malaysian property had been severely undervalued in the past. Also, driven out from our local markets, Singaporeans and many foreigners like the Chinese, Koreans and Japanese alike will still find Malaysian property affordable.

4. Increasing buyer pool. Actually, I personally don't really believe in this, but Ryan Khoo from Alpha Marketing have reasoned that there will in fact be an under-supply of investment-grade property in IM from now to 2025. I can't reproduce his works here, but do refer to his new book titled "What's the Big Deal with IM".

So, while the writer of the previous article spelled doom, I see opportunity. In fact, with prices reeling in a little (to maybe early 2013 prices), DIBS removed (so prices should fall a bit more) and GST setting in soon and the labour crunch (so material and labour costs will rise in), I really think this is actually a better time for serious investors with holding power to enter the market.

Don't let a few minor speed-humps like an additional RM10k state consent or a RPGT of 30% for 5 years (which is really 1 or 2 years for new projects discounting the construction period) set you back from potentially gleaning a very handsome reward in the medium term. Property prices will not recover to pre-2008 due to ever-increasing land costs (barring another global downturn or event), and Malaysia is really one of the last affordable region to invest in, so don't let this short-term correction affect or deter you.

Lastly, in the words of Warren Buffett, buy when everyone is fearful. I wish all of us great times ahead! :p
 

FHBH12

Alfrescian
Loyal
The cooling measures in Malaysia were too fast to digest. I think Q1 2014 demand will heat up again in Iskandar. Driven by e locals. Land is cheap n freehold, e developers r mostly waiting out Q4 2013.
 

Grago

Alfrescian
Loyal
Valdez, is this written by you? Interesting read, and I think many will have similar thoughts. However, I like to offer my differing view.

It wasn't long ago, around Nov 12 and especially after the May GE, when many were extremely bullish about the prospect on IM. Euphoria was at an all time high when most, if not all units were snapped up on the first day or two of launch.

Yet during the past 2 months, many people - investors, those on the sideline, naysayers, etc, have been turning bearish on IM. Recently at the PropertyGuru MPS, I also heard quite a bit of such talk at the coffee area and some booths.

Has the IM golden goose been really slayed?

To me, this is classical recency effect affecting the sentiments and mood of the general public.

When SGD/MYR breached 2.61 in late Sep, many were "predicting" the pair would hit 2.7 by year's end. When the cross slipped back to 2.54 a few weeks ago, a lot of people thought that MYR had strengthened and would continue to do so. With the slew of increased property curbs recently, many will naturally feel that IM, and even Malaysia, has or will lose its shine.

This feeling is entirely understandable. In the trading domain, this is fear at play. This fear of tumbling (conversely, the greed of wanting more) has a proven record of weeding out the uninitiated. If you can tide out the short-term adjustments, you'll likely reap greater rewards in the longer term. Yes, I believe that a short-term correction is in play, but I also believe strongly that it will be short.

Traditionally, property curbs have a reeling effect on speculators and the general public, but after a short while, the effects wear off. Just look at Singapore's first 6 rounds of property cooling measures which only dented the buyers' appetite mildly for a month or too. The only "curb" (which I don't technically term as one) that seemed to have caused substantial damage is the 7th round involving TDSR.

Understandably, with Malaysia's and Johor's recent bout of announcements, and all within a space of 4-6 weeks, many of us will be taken aback. However, let me put forth my reasoning that in a matter of months, investors will likely flock back to IM.

1. Fundamentals haven't changed. IRDA has been doing a good job with attracting investors, both local and foreign, and will continue to do so. In around 8 years, IM has taken delivery of many new mega infrastructure projects like highways, townships and rejuvenation projects, and many others are on the cards. Those committed are starting or are on track to deliver their projects. Of note are those institutions in Educity, healthcare projects in Medini and JB, new theme parks in and around Medini and Desaru, and mega commercial / retail projects like Southkey, City Square extension and Medini Mall expansion. Don't forget the newly completed Pinewoods Studio. And of course, inter-state RTS is fast becoming a reality and HSR, contrary to my understanding, hasn't been shelved. All these will continue to support population influx, especially for interstate migration, and strong job growth, especially for a skilled and higher-paid workforce.

2. Regional and world economics are getting better. We are expecting better economical conditions in 2014 for US, Europe and China. Abenomics has not only dug Japan out of the sinkhole, but placed Toyko back in the investment map. Nearer to home, regional countries will likely all post growth in 2013 and are forecast to improve going forward in 2014. Certainly in Singapore, our sentiments are at a 5-year high. Malaysia is not faring any worse, despite likely to miss their forecast performance by up to 1%.

3. Malaysian property prices are still reasonable. Yes, prices in IM, KL and Penang have spiraled out of most locals' reach, but in reality, the Malaysian salary index had grown faster than the property price index. More importantly, with Singapore's strong currency, we should find properties there being still reasonably priced. After my recent trip to Penang, I was presently surprised that well-situated properties there have mostly remained under RM1k psf. That's less than S$400 psf for literally a beachfront condo at Gurney Drive, Tg Bungah and Gelugor. In IM, prices at Puteri Harbour has reeled back to RM800+ psf and Horizon Hills will still see new terraces being launched at RM400+ psf. Yes, they are expensive by past Malaysian standards, but in my opinion, Malaysian property had been severely undervalued in the past. Also, driven out from our local markets, Singaporeans and many foreigners like the Chinese, Koreans and Japanese alike will still find Malaysian property affordable.

4. Increasing buyer pool. Actually, I personally don't really believe in this, but Ryan Khoo from Alpha Marketing have reasoned that there will in fact be an under-supply of investment-grade property in IM from now to 2025. I can't reproduce his works here, but do refer to his new book titled "What's the Big Deal with IM".

So, while the writer of the previous article spelled doom, I see opportunity. In fact, with prices reeling in a little (to maybe early 2013 prices), DIBS removed (so prices should fall a bit more) and GST setting in soon and the labour crunch (so material and labour costs will rise in), I really think this is actually a better time for serious investors with holding power to enter the market.

Don't let a few minor speed-humps like an additional RM10k state consent or a RPGT of 30% for 5 years (which is really 1 or 2 years for new projects discounting the construction period) set you back from potentially gleaning a very handsome reward in the medium term. Property prices will not recover to pre-2008 due to ever-increasing land costs (barring another global downturn or event), and Malaysia is really one of the last affordable region to invest in, so don't let this short-term correction affect or deter you.

Lastly, in the words of Warren Buffett, buy when everyone is fearful. I wish all of us great times ahead! :p

FINALLY!!! voice of reason..... Thank you for that insightful analysis.
While I realize that most invested in Nusajaya, yes, currently it's Nusajaya, eventually it will be ISKANDAR Malaysia when the other zones come online, are jittery about the recent measures put in by the govt. the hysteria generated by these measures are blown out of proportion.
As opined by Nextreal, the fundamentals haven't changed, property prices in Johor are doing a "catch-up" which have had years of lagging behind KL and Penang, the speculators are being "weeded out" thereby ensuring the a "bubble" does not develop. The potential of growth is more sustainable by these short-term measures.
" ....... So don't let this short-term correction affect or deter you....... ""..... Buy when everyone is fearful....." Look where Mr. Buffet is.......
 
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wuqi256

Moderator - JB Section
Loyal
Dear all,

I am not as eloquent as the learned bros here on this forum nor as well endowed with knowledge and analysis on domestic and macroeconomics so i shall just add 10 points:

1. The Budget does gets tweaked and changed over time. What may apply this year may not apply the next, example RGPT rate.

2. There are indeed more than 3 developers (some foreign) actively reclaiming land but they are only reclaiming within a certain area and even though they are also reclaiming the shoreline, it is mainly for their own related projects.

3. Fundamentals are still there as what some has already mentioned, i shall not go into details but also adding on that often ignored, medical or medical tourism factor. There is a reason why even with restrictions and on the hospitals covering this, people from Singapore are allowed to use their financial (medical) facilities from Singapore. There is a reason why in a certain gentleman's project in Zone A, it encompasses medical and even wellness facilities. Same reason for the hospital and wellness facilities located across Medini Mall.

4. HSR may get bogged down with time but RTS is coming to fruition, already the past couple of weeks, more news has already been released.

5. Certain China developers sales have slowed down recently but it is also because overseas Chinese investors are also buying into local properties done up by local developers and not just the developer they know well. There are indications to show that people from GC are also flocking to Iskandar.

6. Locals are also bound by the rules to tie them into the property to curb more speculative activities. They do have an advantage as in they can sell without any costs after the 6th year. Clear loopholes whereby companies can buy and then sell properties are also closed as they are also taxed. Curbing speculative activities ensures healthy growth rather than a bubble.

7. DIBS though scrapped (there are actually certain developers in Medini still offering that on very limited basis) will not really affect as the developer may still choose to give 3% rebate in certain cases as a move in bonus, etc.

8. 1 million dollar restriction for foreigners. This still does not affect properties in certain parts of Iskandar and for developers where their units are already close to the 1m mark, they can just add value by adding on or furnish the place with packages. Or even financially by giving move in or furniture rebates as it is up to them.

I shall not comment on the move to limit/restrict it to projects launched after the measure was announced.

9. Large companies (i will leave out the well known ones like education) including O&G and certain technological giants are already moving
over to parts of Iskandar.

10. China was the 9th largest investor. There are also certain countries competing with China in the region and in Malaysia.


Old MIDA report from 2012
http://www.mida.gov.my/env3/uploads/PerformanceReport/2012/MIPR2012_ENG.pdf

Now the bad:

Changes in the property tax rates like cukai harta means people like myself have to pay about 1200 RM a year in property taxes for one property. (depending on the value of the property) but i do not begrudge them. Pay what is due.

Banks do not give loans as easily as they do in the past but whenever they have a quota to fill...

GST is coming in 2015 but will it dampen the property market? Fundamentally if the cost of labour, transport and materials continues to go up, does it still leave one to wonder?
 
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supermario

Alfrescian
Loyal
Dear all,

I am not as eloquent as the learned bros here on this forum nor as well endowed with knowledge and analysis on domestic and macroeconomics so i shall just add 10 points:

1. The Budget does gets tweaked and changed over time. What may apply this year may not apply the next, example RGPT rate.

2. There are indeed more than 3 developers (some foreign) actively reclaiming land but they are only reclaiming within a certain area and even though they are also reclaiming the shoreline, it is mainly for their own related projects.

3. Fundamentals are still there as what some has already mentioned, i shall not go into details but also adding on that often ignored, medical or medical tourism factor. There is a reason why even with restrictions and on the hospitals covering this, people from Singapore are allowed to use their financial (medical) facilities from Singapore. There is a reason why in a certain gentleman's project in Zone A, it encompasses medical and even wellness facilities. Same reason for the hospital and wellness facilities located across Medini Mall.

4. HSR may get bogged down with time but RTS is coming to fruition, already the past couple of weeks, more news has already been released.

5. Certain China developers sales have slowed down recently but it is also because overseas Chinese investors are also buying into local properties done up by local developers and not just the developer they know well. There are indications to show that people from GC are also flocking to Iskandar.

6. Locals are also bound by the rules to tie them into the property to curb more speculative activities. They do have an advantage as in they can sell without any costs after the 6th year. Clear loopholes whereby companies can buy and then sell properties are also closed as they are also taxed. Curbing speculative activities ensures healthy growth rather than a bubble.

7. DIBS though scrapped (there are actually certain developers in Medini still offering that on very limited basis) will not really affect as the developer may still choose to give 3% rebate in certain cases as a move in bonus, etc.

8. 1 million dollar restriction for foreigners. This still does not affect properties in certain parts of Iskandar and for developers where their units are already close to the 1m mark, they can just add value by adding on or furnish the place with packages. Or even financially by giving move in or furniture rebates as it is up to them.

I shall not comment on the move to limit/restrict it to projects launched after the measure was announced.

9. Large companies (i will leave out the well known ones like education) including O&G and certain technological giants are already moving
over to parts of Iskandar.

10. China was the 9th largest investor. There are also certain countries competing with China in the region and in Malaysia.


Old MIDA report from 2012
http://www.mida.gov.my/env3/uploads/PerformanceReport/2012/MIPR2012_ENG.pdf

Now the bad:

Changes in the property tax rates like cukai harta means people like myself have to pay about 1200 RM a year in property taxes for one property. (depending on the value of the property) but i do not begrudge them. Pay what is due.

Banks do not give loans as easily as they do in the past but whenever they have a quota to fill...

GST is coming in 2015 but will it dampen the property market? Fundamentally if the cost of labour, transport and materials continues to go up, does it still leave one to wonder?

Good analysis here by bro Wuqi, Valdez and Nextreal. Fundamentally, IM will be a sound investment. Balanced views. Prices may stabilise but unlikely to drop as costs of everything will ensure developers pass the cost to us. I still think IM as a whole will succeed hence still can buy if one have the cash now. If now after the RM 1 million restriction come in it will be more difficult for the middle class Singaporeans to buy. Right now I feel only condos in Medini and landed properties are worth buying. Don't feel CG is a good buy IMHO.
 

cow138

Alfrescian
Loyal
I guess it's the unpredictability of some of the policies that's making ppl nervous.

It's harder for ppl to buy in just on a whim. 500k maybe but 1 million? That's a more difficult choice to make. A lot depends on foreign investors and Johor aside from the relatively low price only compared to Singapore is not exactly making things easy.
 

potter

Alfrescian
Loyal
500k can buy simi hse in IM now.:rolleyes:
Lets see ah lim can give me ang bao soon or not.:biggrin:
 
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FHBH12

Alfrescian
Loyal

Do check that:

If resale, be prepared to spend another $50-100k RM to renovate back to the good condition.
If new, be prepared that the built-up area is less than 2,000 sqft and the land size is only about 20x70, or the developer has poor reputation.
If new and quality is okay, then location cannot make it e.g. next to industrial estate.
 

whoami

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Do check that:

If resale, be prepared to spend another $50-100k RM to renovate back to the good condition.
If new, be prepared that the built-up area is less than 2,000 sqft and the land size is only about 20x70, or the developer has poor reputation.
If new and quality is okay, then location cannot make it e.g. next to industrial estate.

Still worth to buy a resale unit, imo. Have the choice to source good facing, location etc. All in @ cost me 650K. And if i am happy with the existing reno, it may only cost me max 600K. No headache with reno contractors. No headache come inspection during VP. But of course have to do it fast so as to beat the 1 juta deadline.
 

FHBH12

Alfrescian
Loyal
Still worth to buy a resale unit, imo. Have the choice to source good facing, location etc. All in @ cost me 650K. And if i am happy with the existing reno, it may only cost me max 600K. No headache with reno contractors. No headache come inspection during VP. But of course have to do it fast so as to beat the 1 juta deadline.

For immediate rental I think resale is a good buy.
 

wuqi256

Moderator - JB Section
Loyal
Good analysis here by bro Wuqi, Valdez and Nextreal. Fundamentally, IM will be a sound investment. Balanced views. Prices may stabilise but unlikely to drop as costs of everything will ensure developers pass the cost to us. I still think IM as a whole will succeed hence still can buy if one have the cash now. If now after the RM 1 million restriction come in it will be more difficult for the middle class Singaporeans to buy. Right now I feel only condos in Medini and landed properties are worth buying. Don't feel CG is a good buy IMHO.

Thanks, adding on to the points made:

Point 6 - Locals have an advantage in that the 6th year, they do not have to pay anything, foreigners have to pay but it is 5% after the 6th year so even if we have the pessimistic view that the property just appreciates 1% per year, on the 6th year, it will already be 6%. This is purely from a novice point of view.

Buyers coming in are not just from China but Greater China. Also for rebates, already for some developments even before announcements were made, the developers already giving 3% rebates to cash buyers. With the advent of the 1m mark, we may see more packages or rebates given to attract the buyers to equailise the market. I don't see DIBS being scrapped as a bad thing actually, some long time investors often see it as a double edged sword even.
 

supermario

Alfrescian
Loyal
Thanks, adding on to the points made:

Point 6 - Locals have an advantage in that the 6th year, they do not have to pay anything, foreigners have to pay but it is 5% after the 6th year so even if we have the pessimistic view that the property just appreciates 1% per year, on the 6th year, it will already be 6%. This is purely from a novice point of view.

Buyers coming in are not just from China but Greater China. Also for rebates, already for some developments even before announcements were made, the developers already giving 3% rebates to cash buyers. With the advent of the 1m mark, we may see more packages or rebates given to attract the buyers to equailise the market. I don't see DIBS being scrapped as a bad thing actually, some long time investors often see it as a double edged sword even.


The flippers would probably end up being flipped (by M'sia govt). Investors/Retirement focussed bros should not worry. I think regardless 500k or 1M restriction, after rebates and discounts, can still get for 400K+(currently) or 800-900K+ (after 1M kicks in). Developers have lots of ways to lure fishes in. They could even offer full furnishing for landed etc etc. My Johorean SPR friend was lucky to buy a resale EC that gained private status under the then PR sibling scheme. Nowadays 'jio' him to JB he tells me he can't recognise the roads. That is how fast the progress is.
 
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