Is LHL Serious about Re-taking Aljunied GRC?

[po2wq]

Melanie was a SG gal who ...

Gayle is a prolific young SG gal who ...

got peekture? ...

 

[TracyTan866]

got peekture? ...

got peek..no ture

 

[po2wq]

got peek..no ture

npnt! ... ... ...

 

[TracyTan866]

npnt! ... ... ...

can peek..

 

[TracyTan866]

The WP's win of a GRC was as much of a perfect storm of various factors as its own hard work and reputation from LTK and SL. Had the PAP not dug their own grave, I daresay WP would have come close but not take a GRC.

that's true.

WP had very credible candidates and good strategy.

The pap failed the people and misread the angst of the people. The pap was also too arrogant. will the pap make the same mistake? It's anyone's guess

 

[Perspective]

The WP's win of a GRC was as much of a perfect storm of various factors as its own hard work and reputation from LTK and SL. Had the PAP not dug their own grave, I daresay WP would have come close but not take a GRC.

Agree. I predicted that WP would not win a GRC even if LTK were to join the team. For that, I based that on the 2006 result, which was before the 6% swing. If we take Aljunied results of 54% minus 6% assuming support level in 2011 did not change from 2006, WP team would get 48%. Higher than 43% in 2006, but not win.

The credit that goes to WP is for knowing that the ground sentiments were bad enough to take the gamble.

 

[TracyTan866]

Agree. I predicted that WP would not win a GRC even if LTK were to join the team. For that, I based that on the 2006 result, which was before the 6% swing. If we take Aljunied results of 54% minus 6% assuming support level in 2011 did not change from 2006, WP team would get 48%. Higher than 43% in 2006, but not win.

The credit that goes to WP is for knowing that the ground sentiments were bad enough to take the gamble.

Good analysis. In any strategy, it's important to consider both quantitative and qualitative points. The WP analysed the situation well and read the ground correctly. That are the hallmarks of a winner.

 

[TracyTan866]

Agree. I predicted that WP would not win a GRC even if LTK were to join the team. For that, I based that on the 2006 result, which was before the 6% swing. If we take Aljunied results of 54% minus 6% assuming support level in 2011 did not change from 2006, WP team would get 48%. Higher than 43% in 2006, but not win.

The credit that goes to WP is for knowing that the ground sentiments were bad enough to take the gamble.

In GE 2011, PAP seemed to have fared badly in the east and also in the middle class areas. So it is going to be interesting in the next General Elections

What will happen in many GRCs at the next election is anyone's guess.

Each GRC has to be analysed independently. East Coast is likely to have more anti-pap votes. Likewise the better income areas such as Opera Estate, Changi, condos, etc are likely to vote against the pap. So, it's going to be challenging for the pap and it's going to be interesting

 

[Robert Half]

Bedok population is very crucial

 

[TracyTan866]

Bedok population is very crucial

I think so too...but why do you think Bedok population is important?

 

[Robert Half]

I think so too...but why do you think Bedok population is important?

A lot of low-middle income working masses in Bedok and Kampong Chai Chee.

 

[TracyTan866]

A lot of low-middle income working masses in Bedok and Kampong Chai Chee.

Good points. I see the same reasons too.. I also think the residents at Bedok and Chai Chee feel that they are marginalised and that they have been excluded in PAP's relentless pursuit of growth at all costs, to the extent of total disregard for these people. I feel sorry for them because they have been very much neglected and ignored by the pap. Very insensitive of the pap to do so

 

[TracyTan866]

Agree. I predicted that WP would not win a GRC even if LTK were to join the team. For that, I based that on the 2006 result, which was before the 6% swing. If we take Aljunied results of 54% minus 6% assuming support level in 2011 did not change from 2006, WP team would get 48%. Higher than 43% in 2006, but not win.

The credit that goes to WP is for knowing that the ground sentiments were bad enough to take the gamble.

Do you think there were any significant factors that caused the 11% vote swing in GE 2011? I think LKY's untimely comment that Aljunied residents will have 5 years to repent if they vote WP. The residents' response was indeed courageous, clear and is an indication how much disdain they have for LKY. If LKY and the PAP dont learn from this that Singaporeans cant be cowed or talked down to, the next election may be another big surprise for them. Is the PE 2011 where the pap endorsed candidate, TT, got only 35% a precursor to GE 2016?

 

[IreneYeoh]

Do you think there were any significant factors that caused the 11% vote swing in GE 2011? I think LKY's untimely comment that Aljunied residents will have 5 years to repent if they vote WP. The residents' response was indeed courageous, clear and is an indication how much disdain they have for LKY. If LKY and the PAP dont learn from this that Singaporeans cant be cowed or talked down to, the next election may be another big surprise for them. Is the PE 2011 where the pap endorsed candidate, TT, got only 35% a precursor to GE 2016?

I first met CSM earlier this year just before announcement of GE when WP people came around Kovan (also under Aljunied). He's so nice that when I shaked hand with him, I asked him that he must stand in Aljunied. He just smiled and said too early to decide. I voted for WP in 2006 on account of Sylvia. I voted for WP in 2011 on account of CSM. I think Sylvia plus CSM was enough to win. I think the good winning margin is because LTK also joined the team.

 

[Perspective]

Do you think there were any significant factors that caused the 11% vote swing in GE 2011? I think LKY's untimely comment that Aljunied residents will have 5 years to repent if they vote WP. The residents' response was indeed courageous, clear and is an indication how much disdain they have for LKY. If LKY and the PAP dont learn from this that Singaporeans cant be cowed or talked down to, the next election may be another big surprise for them. Is the PE 2011 where the pap endorsed candidate, TT, got only 35% a precursor to GE 2016?

It was a 6% swing, not 11%. To be exact, 6.5%. Reason? General condition of living has worsened.

If TJS did not contest, TT would get about 55% that TCB cannot touch because TCB would be the "opposition", TCB would however get most of the 25% that TJS got. Because there was a presence of "opposition" TJS, PAP votes became split between TCB and TT. That is why I never blamed TJS for contesting. There was no way TCB would win no matter who pulls out.

 

[TracyTan866]

I first met CSM earlier this year just before announcement of GE when WP people came around Kovan (also under Aljunied). He's so nice that when I shaked hand with him, I asked him that he must stand in Aljunied. He just smiled and said too early to decide. I voted for WP in 2006 on account of Sylvia. I voted for WP in 2011 on account of CSM. I think Sylvia plus CSM was enough to win. I think the good winning margin is because LTK also joined the team.

CSM is the man...he was the star of GE2011. He has charisma and is highly qualified. With his debut parliamentary speech, he puts to shame many pap MPs. Teo Ho Pin was unfortunately scheduled to speak after CSM. what a contrast Teo HP made after listening to CSM..CSM was very articulate, smooth in his speech delivery and the quality and substance in his speech was fabulous. In contrast, Teo HP was halting, unclear, had poor diction and unable to string his thoughts. I felt sorry for THP but he deserved whatever brickbats that came at him.

CSM has refined and chiseled looks and is an anuty killer. He is certainly a crowd puller and I agree that CSM was a huge factor in WP's Aljunied win. But there are also other factors...

Thanks for your sharing abt CSM. Nice to have such a first hand sharing

 

[Liquigas]

It was a 6% swing, not 11%. To be exact, 6.5%. Reason? General condition of living has worsened.
If TJS did not contest, TT would get about 55% that TCB cannot touch because TCB would be the "opposition", TCB would however get most of the 25% that TJS got. Because there was a presence of "opposition" TJS, PAP votes became split between TCB and TT. That is why I never blamed TJS for contesting. There was no way TCB would win no matter who pulls out.

Even if conditions worsen, PAP's support would still be around 55% come GE'16. Cannot foresee the support level to go below that in the next 5 years. People who are employed by government departments or quasi government bodies mostly would continue to vote for them. People who depend on government jobs for livelihood such as contractors and suppliers are ardent supporters too. Lastly, include the Malays and diehard supporters which include many womenfolk and elderly people and the percentage support of 55% is about there.

 

[TracyTan866]

I first met CSM earlier this year just before announcement of GE when WP people came around Kovan (also under Aljunied). He's so nice that when I shaked hand with him, I asked him that he must stand in Aljunied. He just smiled and said too early to decide. I voted for WP in 2006 on account of Sylvia. I voted for WP in 2011 on account of CSM. I think Sylvia plus CSM was enough to win. I think the good winning margin is because LTK also joined the team.

Besides CSM, I think LTK and SL are vote pullers too...LTK is well known and well likes by the older residents. LTK brings with him the Hougang effect which swung many votes to WP in Aljunied. SL's performance as an NCMP was sterling. She was able to present some very cogent arguments against pap policies and made the pap looked bad. Such well presented arguments touched the hearts of Singaporeans and endeared her to many, especially middle-aged and older SG guys..She is pleasant looking and single...Did she manage to arouse their fantasy?

So in LTK, SL and CSM is a deadly WP combination that delivered the killer punch.

GY is a well-liked gentleman. Perhaps he is the best pap has, much better than LHL. so the pap must be disappointed that the WP succeeded to defeat the pap GRC star team at Aljunied. It wld be less devastating if LSS or KBW or VB or NEH had lost instead of GY. The PAP must be thinking..."if GY can fall, no one is completely safe from defeat". And indeed no one in PAP is safe come GE 2016 and many singaporeans hope that the Opposition Parties will hammer the PAP at the next election.

 

[Ramseth]

Tracy and Irene, thanks for the support. Now that's past and history, I can tell you that's secretly guarded co-ordination and operation. Nobody except those who needed to know knew that LTK was going to stand in Aljunied until the 59th minute at the nomination centre. Even LKY didn't expect that LTK would show hand.

But it was a good show. Most people in PAP were expecting LTK to contest M-K and try to win two GRCs for WP. GMS, unwittingly, played up that rumor because NSP was the collateral damage then. We had roaring victory celebration on polling night. Too bad, I couldn't attend any celebration dinners whether Aljunied or M-K or other constituencies because I had to leave for Thailand immediately thereafter the polls. I'm sure those were gloriously celebrated events, even if just above 40% without crossing 50% to win. My most heartwarming result is that, no WP candidate scored below 40%. Next GE shall be a good showdown to watch.

 

[Perspective]

Brand name isn't really invulnerable. That I have to agree with the village idiot (I mean, he had taken both of the only two possible positions previously on different occasions, and I agree with one of them. LOL can't resist the dig.)

Anyway, brand name isn't really invulnerable in the sense that it can be lost with bad management. And then it becomes a double edge sword. The SDP brand name in 1991 obviously helped them win 3 seats. WP brand back then (in 1991) was not only inferior to SDP, it was on par with NSP. Moreover, WP had 1957 to start with that others did not. So how did SDP do it? How did WP fail?

However, the same SDP brand name, by 2006, was flat. Every constituency had 20% flat. Even you score better as an unknown than anything associated with SDP. So how did this come to a pass after just 15 years?

Similarly, WP, as mentioned, was like any other party in terms of results despite being around longer. Epic fail. By 2001, WP had 2 candidates and one seat, SDA had 14 candidates, 2 seats (1 NCMP). Did SDA have a brand name and head start above WP from 2001? Yes, I think.

Then what happened? Ten years later, SDA has no seat and nearly 20% of votes less than WP. WP won more seats than the total amount of SDA candidates fielded. In the only Punggol 3-corner-fight, an opposition party with 2 seats 10 years ago lost deposit against the opposition party with 1 seat 10 years ago.

Things can change like that.

So when the village idiot mentioned about party branding, I wonder what aspect of "branding" was referred to.