Is LHL Serious about Re-taking Aljunied GRC?

[ssrrvv11]

Tracy and Irene, thanks for the support. .

still talking to your own clone 'ireneyeoh'?? wtf??

 

[TracyTan866]

It was a 6% swing, not 11%. To be exact, 6.5%. Reason? General condition of living has worsened.

If TJS did not contest, TT would get about 55% that TCB cannot touch because TCB would be the "opposition", TCB would however get most of the 25% that TJS got. Because there was a presence of "opposition" TJS, PAP votes became split between TCB and TT. That is why I never blamed TJS for contesting. There was no way TCB would win no matter who pulls out.

Are you referring to the SG-wide swing of 6%. I am referring to 11% swing in Aljunied from 43% to 54%. so we are talking abt different swings...if so, both of us are correct respectively.

Are you saying that TJS didnt stand for PE, most of his votes wld have gone to TT?

How abt TKL?

 

[Perspective]

Are you referring to the SG-wide swing of 6%. I am referring to 11% swing in Aljunied from 43% to 54%. so we are talking abt different swings...if so, both of us are correct respectively.

Are you saying that TJS didnt stand for PE, most of his votes wld have gone to TT?

How abt TKL?

Sorry. Alright, the swing of 11% in Aljunied includes the 6.5% swing nationwide. With LTK and CSM, Aljunied would swing 3.5%, based on transplanting the 2006 sentiments to 2011, then Aljunied will get 48% and not win.

If TJS did not stand, his votes would go to TCB and a bit to TKL, and much of TCB's votes will go to TT. That's what it means.

 

[TracyTan866]

Even if conditions worsen, PAP's support would still be around 55% come GE'16. Cannot foresee the support level to go below that in the next 5 years. People who are employed by government departments or quasi government bodies mostly would continue to vote for them. People who depend on government jobs for livelihood such as contractors and suppliers are ardent supporters too. Lastly, include the Malays and diehard supporters which include many womenfolk and elderly people and the percentage support of 55% is about there.

Unless PAP makes good what it promised to do, I wld be disappointed if pap is able to get 55% by remaining what it is today. I hope to see real changes in the pap and not just words and no action.

Lastly, include the Malays and diehard supporters which include many womenfolk and elderly people and the percentage support of 55% is about there.

I am surprised you think malays support pap...after how pap has imported PRCs and given them citizens and the PRCs refusal to assimilated and immerse into Singapore's lifestyle and culture. Dont you think the malays feel marginalised and have resentment against the pap? Look at how the pap fared in the areas which are predominantly malays... that will give you a sense of how the malays view the pap

 

[TracyTan866]

Tracy and Irene, thanks for the support. .

Welcome, Ramseth! I support any political party that cares and works for Singapore and Singaporean. And I can see that WP, NSP, SDP and SPP work for and care for for Singapore and Singapore.

 

[TracyTan866]

Now that's past and history, I can tell you that's secretly guarded co-ordination and operation. Nobody except those who needed to know knew that LTK was going to stand in Aljunied until the 59th minute at the nomination centre. Even LKY didn't expect that LTK would show hand.

But it was a good show. Most people in PAP were expecting LTK to contest M-K and try to win two GRCs for WP. GMS, unwittingly, played up that rumor because NSP was the collateral damage then. We had roaring victory celebration on polling night. Too bad, I couldn't attend any celebration dinners whether Aljunied or M-K or other constituencies because I had to leave for Thailand immediately thereafter the polls. I'm sure those were gloriously celebrated events, even if just above 40% without crossing 50% to win. My most heartwarming result is that, no WP candidate scored below 40%. Next GE shall be a good showdown to watch.

I applaud WP for a well fought battle. If the pap knew that the WP candidates are so strong, it might decide to concede Aljunied GRC have moved GY to East Coast GRC and put in a minister it can afford to lose in Aljunied...eg MBT or RL. the victory would not have been that good. Defeating PAP ace GY was indeed the icing of the cake..It deserved all the celebrations. Hopefully, WP can top this by defeating LHL at AMK GRC and NSP defeating GCT at MP GRC..ie if GCT dares to contest in 2016

 

[Fook Seng]

It was a 6% swing, not 11%. To be exact, 6.5%. Reason? General condition of living has worsened.

If TJS did not contest, TT would get about 55% that TCB cannot touch because TCB would be the "opposition", TCB would however get most of the 25% that TJS got. Because there was a presence of "opposition" TJS, PAP votes became split between TCB and TT. That is why I never blamed TJS for contesting. There was no way TCB would win no matter who pulls out.

Hope you are not advising another of the opposition parties. With your crooked analysis, basically one cast one's votes not based on one's preferred candidate but purely on tactical consideration. If your analysis is correct then those votes that have gone to TCB would have gone to TT anyway irrespective of whether TJS was in or not. But that did not happen. Someone did a survey of voters when the poll had closed but before the results were counted. He took the first and second choices into consideration. TT would have little of the others' votes and TCB would have won as long as there were only 3 candidates, even though TJS's votes would have either mostly gone to TKL or been destroyed, with a small number (those who cannot stand TKL but want to deny TT the win) going TCB's way enough for him to win. The only way that TJS's votes would have gone to TT is that he was a PAP dog and was publicly known but that was not the case. And the only reason why you gave this wired conclusion is that you are a TJS sidekick.

 

[TracyTan866]

still talking to your own clone 'ireneyeoh'?? wtf??

IreneYeoh is Ramseth's clone???

 

[TracyTan866]

Sorry. Alright, the swing of 11% in Aljunied includes the 6.5% swing nationwide. With LTK and CSM, Aljunied would swing 3.5%, based on transplanting the 2006 sentiments to 2011, then Aljunied will get 48% and not win.

.

Sorry, I dont understand how you arrived at the figure that with LTK and CSM Aljunied would swing 3.5%...all I know is that nationwide, the swing for 2011 was 6% and for Aljunied it was 11%

 

[TracyTan866]

If TJS did not stand, his votes would go to TCB and a bit to TKL, and much of TCB's votes will go to TT. That's what it means.

Again, I dont understand your calculation. If TJS didnt contest PE and as you said his votes would go to TCB and a bit to TKL, doesnt it mean that TCB wld win PE 2011?

 

[TracyTan866]

Hope you are not advising another of the opposition parties. With your crooked analysis, basically one cast one's votes not based on one's preferred candidate but purely on tactical consideration. If your analysis is correct then those votes that have gone to TCB would have gone to TT anyway irrespective of whether TJS was in or not. But that did not happen. Someone did a survey of voters when the poll had closed but before the results were counted. He took the first and second choices into consideration. TT would have little of the others' votes and TCB would have won as long as there were only 3 candidates, even though TJS's votes would have either mostly gone to TKL or been destroyed, with a small number (those who cannot stand TKL but want to deny TT the win) going TCB's way enough for him to win. The only way that TJS's votes would have gone to TT is that he was a PAP dog and was publicly known but that was not the case. And the only reason why you gave this wired conclusion is that you are a TJS sidekick.

I agree with you. If either TJS or TKL didnt contest and PE was a three candidate race, some of their votes wld go to TCB and he wld win PE 2011.

 

[TracyTan866]

Brand name isn't really invulnerable. That I have to agree with the village idiot (I mean, he had taken both of the only two possible positions previously on different occasions, and I agree with one of them. LOL can't resist the dig.)

Anyway, brand name isn't really invulnerable in the sense that it can be lost with bad management. And then it becomes a double edge sword. The SDP brand name in 1991 obviously helped them win 3 seats. WP brand back then (in 1991) was not only inferior to SDP, it was on par with NSP. Moreover, WP had 1957 to start with that others did not. So how did SDP do it? How did WP fail?

However, the same SDP brand name, by 2006, was flat. Every constituency had 20% flat. Even you score better as an unknown than anything associated with SDP. So how did this come to a pass after just 15 years?

Similarly, WP, as mentioned, was like any other party in terms of results despite being around longer. Epic fail. By 2001, WP had 2 candidates and one seat, SDA had 14 candidates, 2 seats (1 NCMP). Did SDA have a brand name and head start above WP from 2001? Yes, I think.

Then what happened? Ten years later, SDA has no seat and nearly 20% of votes less than WP. WP won more seats than the total amount of SDA candidates fielded. In the only Punggol 3-corner-fight, an opposition party with 2 seats 10 years ago lost deposit against the opposition party with 1 seat 10 years ago.

Things can change like that.

So when the village idiot mentioned about party branding, I wonder what aspect of "branding" was referred to.

I think many singaporeans vote for the party rather than the candidate.

 

[Cruxx]

Amount of time the average Sinkie voter spends contemplating on who to vote for: 30 seconds

 

[TracyTan866]

Amount of time the average Sinkie voter spends contemplating on who to vote for: 30 seconds

hahahaha...maybe it is because they oreadi know exactly who to vote for...so no need to contemplate.. decisive Singaporeans!!!

 

[IreneYeoh]

I think many singaporeans vote for the party rather than the candidate.

I go for the candidates as I've said before. In 2006 I voted WP because of Sylvia. In 2011, I voted WP because of Sylvia + CSM + LTK. I'm not saying the Indian and Malay MP no good. They'll have their time to make themselves well known as good and stand steady even if it's SMC I'll vote for them again if they do well.

 

[TracyTan866]

I go for the candidates as I've said before. In 2006 I voted WP because of Sylvia. In 2011, I voted WP because of Sylvia + CSM + LTK. I'm not saying the Indian and Malay MP no good. They'll have their time to make themselves well known as good and stand steady even if it's SMC I'll vote for them again if they do well.

That's good. Perhaps you are more knowledgeable and discerning. but for many older singaporeans, I still think they vote for the brand

 

[Fook Seng]

That's good. Perhaps you are more knowledgeable and discerning. but for many older singaporeans, I still think they vote for the brand

Especially the PAP supporters and to some extent the SDP supporters as well.

 

[TracyTan866]

Especially the PAP supporters and to some extent the SDP supporters as well.

yes..how many singaporeans who vote for pap vote for the candidate?

 

[freedalas]

Even if conditions worsen, PAP's support would still be around 55% come GE'16. Cannot foresee the support level to go below that in the next 5 years. People who are employed by government departments or quasi government bodies mostly would continue to vote for them. People who depend on government jobs for livelihood such as contractors and suppliers are ardent supporters too. Lastly, include the Malays and diehard supporters which include many womenfolk and elderly people and the percentage support of 55% is about there.

Agree and that's why I had urged all Singaporeans at another thread to play our part too and not just sit back and let the opposition do all the hard work or the PAP screwing up themselves. Since it's a common goal of all forummers to see PAP gets even more badly routed in next GE with more GRCs falling, we should whenever there are opportunities to highlight the failed policies and practices that the PAP had implemented. Thankfully, their screwed-up policies are increasingly coming to light, so the opportunities to expose the PAP flaws are also increasing. We must tell our all friends, colleagues, relatives and even sheer acquaintances how the PAP had really failed in looking after the people's interests and neglecting its social responsibilities whenever we have a chance to. We must dispel the myth that S'pore needs the PAP whatever the circumstances. Explain to them that the PAP policies are only good for the short term and all the cracks and fault lines are now surfacing through the passage of time ie the PAP are too short-sighted. We owe this to our children and grand-children for if they continue to be fooled by the PAP as the 60% had been in the last GE.

 

[TracyTan866]

Agree and that's why I had urged all Singaporeans at another thread to play our part too and not just sit back and let the opposition do all the hard work or the PAP screwing up themselves. Since it's a common goal of all forummers to see PAP gets even more badly routed in next GE with more GRCs falling, we should whenever there are opportunities to highlight the failed policies and practices that the PAP had implemented. Thankfully, their screwed-up policies are increasingly coming to light, so the opportunities to expose the PAP flaws are also increasing. We must tell our all friends, colleagues, relatives and even sheer acquaintances how the PAP had really failed in looking after the people's interests and neglecting its social responsibilities whenever we have a chance to. We must dispel the myth that S'pore needs the PAP whatever the circumstances. Explain to them that the PAP policies are only good for the short term and all the cracks and fault lines are now surfacing through the passage of time ie the PAP are too short-sighted. We owe this to our children and grand-children for if they continue to be fooled by the PAP as the 60% had been in the last GE.

Well said. All Singaporeans have a duty to expose the faults of the pap and their bad policies. It's for Singapore and future Singaporeans.