Hougang By-Eelection & Impact of YSL Saga II

[scroobal]

You could have ignored the entire thread. The nick was a dead giveaway, the contrived writing and the intention was clear as it was big and prominent as an Elephant's behind. The only thing missing is a flashing red light and Ho Ching doing pole dancing.

Wah, that's scandalous to begin with!

Now we have that ISD agent GD saying I am agent and now Scroobal says I fell to become tool and proxy of some scheming fellow....

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Perspective]

You could have ignored the entire thread. The nick was a dead giveaway, the contrived writing and the intention was clear as it was big and prominent as an Elephant's behind. The only thing missing is a flashing red light and Ho Ching doing pole dancing.

I don't see what's wrong for you and GD to have different views. Not like you two are the same person. It's better than one person having 2 views - that's a schizo.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Scroobal,

Just like Yaw-gate, I still maintain Honesty is the best policy in such instances.

To pretend that PAP will not know about such information and let their SPH mouth pieces to exploit it, is really ostrich in the sand attitude.

Just as you have said, if there are PAP members, why would we be overly concerned about such thing here? Its inconsequential.

Goh Meng Seng

You could have ignored the entire thread. The nick was a dead giveaway, the contrived writing and the intention was clear as it was big and prominent as an Elephant's behind. The only thing missing is a flashing red light and Ho Ching doing pole dancing.

 

[sleaguepunter]

bro,
don't forget the folks from Seletar hill side, Cheng San side

seletar hill, u mean those hdb blocks at the junction of jalan kayu and YCK? those much later, i think they relocated after hdb SER their flats in,i dunno, 2004/5? wheras those living in the selatar farmway and those lived behind the church opposite the current jalan kayu prata, they were relocated at 87/88. these bunch mostly move to ave 2,6 & 8 and , their children transferred from jalan kayu primary to xin min primary, which principal was also transfer from jalan kayu primary. i cannot remember his name, it Tan something but he was always the charge of mission for singapore delegation to SEA Games, Asian Games and Olympic Games during the 80s and early 90s.

 

[deepblue0911]

Just like Yaw-gate, I still maintain Honesty is the best policy in such instances.

Goh Meng Seng

Honesty??? Hahaha

 

[Nice-Gook]

The intelligence agencies don't handle chump change.

Sheesh,never knew you could write in so many words of mere nothings; however you evaded the issue or side stepping it.It's all in black and white for every one to see !

What goes buried in your verbose is this.For the simple minded this is what GoldenDragon said about wpwhistleblower post.....

Hahahaaa............ I am most impressed with your contribution. Imo, you don't come across as an ordinary chap in this forum. I note your recent 'membership' in this forum. Where were you all this while, bro?

And where wpwhistleblower and GoldenDragon differs is this

Some corrections needed. As a political party, PAP DOES NOT have handlers. No political parties I know of have a wing to handle this sensitive and delicate matter. It is best left to an intel agency. Under the cover of 'national security' or 'foreign involvement', the necessary cover is there in the event of exposure.

PAP was never comfortable with JBJ. LKY would have done all things possible to get rid of JBJ and THEY succeeded. It wasn't an Act of God.

!

Which simply makes whatever wpwhistleblower said is also agreed upon by the ISD aka intelligence ASP GoldenDragon.

You are ignoring and side stepping this critical issue.

I am surprised how this also escapes GMS.

 

[wpwhistleblower]

Thought you are much sharper.Just take a second look at wpwhistleblower 's writings.His ability to write like a Hokkien peng is scripted.Except for the fact to 'sir' here and 'Sir" there specifically as a prefix is absolutely Indian.

As a person who had sat in many business meetings and conferences in foreign lands where spoken lingo means exactly contrary to body languages---I instinctively read between the lines.Hence,I have read wpwhistleblower not as a disgruntled ex WP member of JBJ era.wpwhistleblower could very well be from the very intelligence circle.Leaking at the right time with an agenda.

You no anyhow say me this say me that. I Hokkien peng so waht? Yuo can look down on me is it. I no Indian. My mother teech me respect old poeple so I call old poeple sir. It is respect. Like that is wrong is it? Also what intilingent circle, what exWP memebr yuo and Mr Scroobal Sir talking about? My wife no many wp girls and they tell her many, many, many, many tings about wp men. Angela no oinly girl Yaw play long time liow and got pregnatn. Got other girls also pregnant bu otehr wp man. This tiem not Yaw. Got oen wp girl pregnant. She want keep baby but that wp seniro humsup say must abot baby. Wait wife know. Otehr poeple no, plenty trouble. WP got many humsup. Got old humsup. Got young humsup. Got marreid men humsup. Got single men humsup. Aso got brign girl to wp office and play girl on chair and on desk. Condom used alredy also anyhow trow. Just trow in basket. No trow in toilet and flush away. Very dirty. Very humsup. Now many wp girls want to resign liow but scare baecasue wp men strong latwer sabo them or make them trouibel.

 

[wpwhistleblower]

When I heard about a WP member involved I thought it was someone important and influential. I am sure you know that any fool can be a member of a an opposition party.

Eh Mr Scoobal Sir, I read this blog 1 or 2 year already. I thot tyou and lockliberal good freind one. He talk to you and you talk to him. Now you call him stupid, say he no important and say him until so bad and so chum. Wah low eh! Now I no whay many poeple scare postign ehre. Wait anyhwo get scolding. Tio call fool, stupid. Last tiem I got read you say many, many bad tings about Mr Chen Show Mao Sir. I tell you you are wrogn. Mr Chen Sir is very good men one. The wp girsl also very, very respectr him. He like Mr Goh Meng Sirt. Very lau ku tong but very Chinese gentlemen. No disturb girl. No talk dirty or sexy sexy talk with wp girl. No pretend tocuh ehre touch there. I think only this two men in wp no humsump. No humsup liek otehr wp men. Later I say more about more impotant wp humsup okay. Got Glenda tell my wife. Got many otehr wp girl also tell my wife. I make you ahppy.

 

[wpwhistleblower]

Which simply makes whatever wpwhistleblower said is also agreed upon by the ISD aka intelligence ASP GoldenDragon.

You are ignoring and side stepping this critical issue.

I am surprised how this also escapes GMS.

I aslo tio confuse. Mr Golden Dragon Sir already confirmed Mr Low Thia Khiang Sir story. Mr Scoobal Sir sometime I no like to hao siao here hao siao there but he also got confirms story. Or maybe he nayhow confirm story becuase he no wnat lose to Mr Golden Dragon Sir becos Mr Golden Dragon Sir no many, many thing. Now he say I agent lah, I exwp memebr lah. Aiyah, poeple all got friends, got eyes, got mouth. Can see and can talk. No need to be agent or ex wp one lah. Only need to ahve eye nd mouths.

 

[Charlie99]

extend is a verb, whereas extent is a noun.
In your context, it should be extent.

http://singaporealternatives.blogspot.com/2012/05/hougang-by-eelection-impact-of-ysl-saga.html

It is a bit ironic for me to write about Hougang By-election on the EVE of 1st year anniversary of last GE. It exposes the weakness of the key opposition party WP which has its own MP self implode to such an extend (emphasis added) that a hard fought seat has been lost less than 1 year after GE.

<b>When is the By-Election </b>

Sin Ming has reported that the Hougang By-election may be held on 26 May 20112. According to the same report, PM's ward Ang Mo Kio GRC will be holding by-election along Hougang as well. I have done some check on these information and find that it is quite likely to be so. I believe the details on the by-elections will be announced very soon. Nevertheless, I may be wrong but let's look at Hougang and impact of YSL so far.
<b>
</b>
<b>NSP: Show or no show?</b>

Nicole Seah has declared that she is not going to contest in the Hougang by-election. This is good news for WP and ardent opposition supporters who don't want to see 3 corner fight, but it is bad news for NSP. Nicole Seah has said something more than necessary to compromise her party's position. She has said that ANYONE who intends to contest Hougang would be disrespecting the decades of hard work Low Thia Khiang has put in Hougang. This may sound "good" on the surface but it has basically closed the door for NSP to contest in Hougang. Intriguingly, NSP SG Hazel Poa and Chairman Sebastian Teo have repeatedly said that NSP has not decided on this matter yet.

Is NSP still trying to call the bluff? Who else could they send beside Nicole? I don't think Hazel nor Sebastian would go to Hougang personally. Jeanette? Seriously, I don't believe anyone else in NSP would be effective or suitable for Hougang by-election at all. Thus, most likely, NSP will be a "no-show" in Hougang by-election unless they end up sending just anyone anyhow. That would be bad for NSP's branding and image in the long run because it would truly be viewed as a "spoiler", insincere and taking elections too lightly. One of the key reasons why I feel that sending Nicole to Hougang by-election would be a good move is because it would not make NSP look like a "spoiler" but taking the contest very seriously. So serious that they would stake their most popular candidate to contest.

<b>3 Corner Fights Everywhere for Next GE?</b>

With the loss of such strategic option, NSP will have a hard time in future negotiation to avoid 3 corner fights with WP. Interestingly, Zaobao has written a <a href="http://www.zaobao.com.sg/sp/sp120506_001.shtml">news report </a>on WP's intention to contest in Tampines GRC for the next GE. (For some strange reasons, it quoted my earlier post while one of its reporter Yew Lun Tian has written a commentary making unwarranted attacks on me to justify not reporting on the same article.) It reported Sylvia Lim saying that WP intended to expand its contest to include 8 GRCs for the next contest. She has given a hint on where these 8 GRCs would be. She has indicated that proximity to WP's bases in Hougang and and Aljunied GRC would be the key consideration. If you look at the map, this would mean that WP's expansion plan would most probably include Tampines, Marine Parade, Bishan-Toa Payoh and either Pungol-Pasir Ris or Tg Pagar, on top of the 4 GRCs they have contested in GE2011.

<b>NSP Strategically Cornered</b>

NSP would not be able to put up a "brave front" during the negotiation in order to scare off WP from Tampines and Marine Parade. Who would believe NSP to have the courage to fight any 3 corner fights with WP in a GRC when it does not even have the courage to fight a 3 corner fight in a Hougang SMC now? Least to say that any "threats" of possible retaliation of sending teams to Aljunied or East Coast or even Hougang would be not be viewed as credible threats at all. NSP is strategically cornered. Its "subtle threat" of contesting in Hougang (in the hope for negotiation on avoidance of future clashes) has lost credibility after Nicole Seah's comment. This will affect all future plans and 3 corner fights in NSP's best turfs, Tampines and Marine Parade will be inevitable unless "miracle" happens. There is one possible way for such miracle to happen but I shall leave it to another post another day.

<b>The Inconsequential AMK GRC By-Election</b> <b>Strategy</b>

The initial information I gathered indicated that PAP might want to combine Ang Mo Kio GRC with Hougang SMC while cutting out Yio Chu Kang from the present AMK GRC to form a SMC by redrawing the boundaries prior to the by-election. This would raise the difficulty for WP in defending Hougang and provide a real chance for PAP to take back Hougang SMC while reducing WP's seats in parliament. However, I believe this plan has been shelved because strategically, it is unsound for the ruling party to risk its PM's standing for a SMC which doesn't threaten PAP's ruling party status. It might just worsen PAP's public image of playing dirty with such underhand tactic.

PAP may want to use the corresponding AMK GRC by-election to make a contrast to WP: PAP calls for by-election because it wanted renewal to its rank, WP wanted to call for by-election because its MP just screw up badly. PAP may also use the opportunity to sell the idea that they could put Hougang SMC under the PM's direct care in AMK GRC if they win Hougang. I do not think WP will contest in AMK by-election and whether other opposition parties will turn up is yet to be seen (quite unlikely to me). But if WP really did contest in AMK by-election, it would be an interesting contest. That could be seen as a way to counter PM's proposition... well, let WP win AMK and they could still let Hougang to combine with AMK Town council! However, this will be quite unlikely when we take into the consideration of the wide impact of Yaw-gate beyond Hougang.*

<b>Depth of Yaw-gate impact</b>

Even with the certainty of a straight fight in Hougang SMC, there is no reason for WP to feel complacent at all. According to verified information, WP is facing a rather serious and obvious backlash from the ground. These negative sentiments appear beyond the boundaries of Hougang and Aljunied. According to sources, WP has stopped the weekly sales of its publication Hammer for about two months now. They have stopped this very important ground activity just not too long after Yaw Shin Leong has been sacked.

The official WP's reason for the cessations of the weekly Hammer sales is that they wanted to concentrate on the ground work in Hougang and Aljunied. For those who lack the understanding of WP's political operations, weekly Hammer sales is one of the most important political ground work for the party. It provides consistent visibility of the party to the public, allowing the party to engage the voters on the ground while earning some funds for party's operations. It also allows the party to gauge public sentiments and judge the party's support around Singapore. WP will not stop weekly Hammer sales without any good reasons, especially so for an extended period of time.

According to sources, the real reason for the temporary cessation of Hammer sales is due to the ground's sarcasm and harsh questioning on what exactly happened to Yaw Shin Leong. They even got into argument with residents in Yishun which resulted a public show of discontent at the party. Eventually, WP decided to stop the Hammer sales altogether for the time being, hoping that such public backlash and discontent would subside after some time.**

Such public show of discontent at WP may not be apparently evident in Hougang but it is creeping into the middle ground voters' mind. There is no doubt that the YSL saga has long lasting impact on not only WP but on other opposition parties as well. Other opposition parties have also faced mean and nasty sarcasm from the ground with regards to YSL even when they tried to explain that ther are not WP. The vast and depth of the negative impact of Yaw-gate on WP and the whole opposition movement cannot be underestimated lightly.

<b>Expected Vote Swing against WP and its implications </b>

The expected swing of votes against WP is about 5% to 8%. Although nobody would expect a 15% vote swing but if it happens and there isn't a 3 corner fight, WP will lose its Hougang seat to PAP. As I have indicated in my previous post before, a 3 corner fight may not be a bad thing for WP if the third candidate isn't that strong. It would help to cushion the impact of vote swing against WP.

The extend (emphasis added) of the vote swing in Hougang against WP would affect its strategic options for the next GE. If the vote swing in Hougang is so great that it became a neck to neck fight in Hougang, WP may be forced to readjust its strategic positioning for the next GE. It may be an indication of bigger than expected general backlash against WP, all thanks to Yaw-gate and WP may have to reconsider very carefully on whether it is wise for it to go all out for 3 corner fights with parties like NSP.

Maybe, hopefully, it would just be a "blessing in disguise" for NSP's apparent lack of will to contest the Hougang by-election so that it would not be blamed for whatever impending big vote swing WP may face. i.e. it will not become the scape goat for blame.

<b>Conclusion</b>

Although this coming by-elections in Hougang as well as AMK GRC will not be "exciting" at all, but the result in Hougang will be very important as a testing stone for future GE dynamics.

Even without a 3 corner fight in Hougang, the extend of the vote swing against WP will dictate on WP's ability and strength of bashing into others' territories. If WP actually loses Hougang (i.e. 15% vote swing) in a straight fight, it would mean that even Aljunied may be in danger in next GE as well. Aljunied GRC has only a margin of less than 5%. A vote swing of more than 8% against WP in Hougang stronghold would imply a disastrous impact on WP's overall party brand image due to Yaw-gate.

The result of Hougang by-election will also be viewed as the judgement of Hougang voters on Low Thia Khiang's legacy and the method he handled Yaw-gate. Hougang is after all LTK's home base to start with. Whether his decades of hard work and legacy in Hougang would be destroyed by Yaw Shin Leong will be reflected by the outcome of Hougang by-electoin.*

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Charlie99]

strife vs stride?
In the context of your statement, it should be stride.

Scroobal,

This is strategy analysis, not statistical analysis. Unless I say I have done straw poll on the ground, else it would not be possible for us to say conclusively what's the swing. But my personal feel is that there will be a 5% to 8% which has been mentioned.

The conclusion is that there won't be 3 corner fight after Nicole Seah's booboo statement. i.e. She has just given NSP's game away. But having said that, WP won't have it easy either, due to the backlash.

In Hougang, you may have a group of more vocal WP supporters but that doesn't mean that there aren't any silent middle ground voters. In fact, if we study the past voting pattern, middle ground voters contributed to much vote swing. It will ring a danger bell if WP only manage 55% or below for this by-election in its stronghold Hougang.

And BTW, I have no axe to grind with WP. Nobody would say I have any axe to grind against NSP when I made critical statements about it, why would you think I have any axe to grind with WP? Take criticism in strife (emphasis added) else you will end up like PAP which has always been accused to turn a deaf ear to criticisms and feedback.


Goh Meng Seng

 

[deepblue0911]

I aslo tio confuse. Mr Golden Dragon Sir already confirmed Mr Low Thia Khiang Sir story. Mr Scoobal Sir sometime I no like to hao siao here hao siao there but he also got confirms story. Or maybe he nayhow confirm story becuase he no wnat lose to Mr Golden Dragon Sir becos Mr Golden Dragon Sir no many, many thing. Now he say I agent lah, I exwp memebr lah. Aiyah, poeple all got friends, got eyes, got mouth. Can see and can talk. No need to be agent or ex wp one lah. Only need to ahve eye nd mouths.

Hi, did you say Lockliberal is Yap Eng Kian? One of the 48 charged for sex with underaged prostitute. Your info chun? Where did you hear from?

 

[Charlie99]

Chatting on general matter is one thing but sharing party's thoughts and information with you is another

Your answer to my last question is important, it will reveal to all the readers here your real intention against WP

If you can't give me a straight answer, it shows you are nothing more than a Political Gossiper.

That so called "Political Analyst" may be a paid agent of the govt. and/or govt affiliated entity.
If he is not a paid agent, then he should respond to my request that he swear to it, and/or make a statutory declaration if for whatever reason he is unable to swear an oath (such as Jews are not allowed to swear), that he is neither a paid agent nor receiving money (cash or in kind) as a paid informer.

 

[Charlie99]

I will go a step further. Whoever WP chooses, he/she will improve on YSL's performance.

Hello [GoldenDragon], kawan saya, you are so serious and garang with your speculation.

 

[Charlie99]

Boss, I bo sir leh. Just the other night, met an ex-accused of mine together with 4 of his Ah Beng friends. He addressed me as 'sir'. I told him not to coz I retired liao. He insisted. And he is in his late 60s! Sent him to jail at least twice.

I am flattered to be compared with Capt Goh. No insult at all, boss. Life goes on.

Hi brother [GoldenDragon], if your ex-accused in front of his Ah Beng friends, called you Sir, surely that fellow give you face and respect.

 

[Charlie99]

Whahhahahha... For this I will call you SIR!. You don't say much BUT you say it with so just the right amount of venom and get your message across.
GMS is not someone anyone should bother to persuade to change his views or his method. He is the most unfortunate thing to happen in our political scene. And sadly now Singapore cannot afford another few years of such rubbishs.
GMS does not need a psychiatrist. He is just so vindictive. He is a woman having menstruation 24/7 the whole year round (emphasis added).

Your comment is funny, but very apt.
Perhaps, losing blood everyday through menstruation on a daily basis, he will be very anaemic, and self destruct (may be tomorrow, I have to go for confession due to my evil sinful thoughts). Sorry to GMS.

 

[Charlie99]

Mr. Goh

Scroobal is saying PAP is now terrified that a 3-corner fight will split PAP's votes while WP's votes will remain largely intact, with the exception of NS coming in, which she isn't. Is that the reason why you're now singing a different tune? i.e. You're now saying it should be a straight fight between PAP and WP, which is a position I did not hear from you previously. If you've stated this position before, please share with me again (I must have missed that). However, if this is a new position of yours, can you come clean on your change of heart?

GD says you're paid to do this. I don't know whether this is true. But this is a serious allegation and I'm concerned for you. If it's not true, you must do something to protect your integrity, no? So far you did not even respond to GD so I'm assuming you missed that. Please also do not say you ignore it so as not to lend credibility to a wild accusation. Otherwise, your silence will be construed as admission, and not dissimilar to how YSL handled his adultery allegations. (emphasis added)

GMS, please respond. Looking forward to read your response, one way or the other. Tuan, anda ada bola, tak?

 

[deepblue0911]

GMS, please respond. Looking forward to read your response, one way or the other. Tuan, anda ada bola, tak?

Charlie sir. He responded in another thread liao, saying that he's not.

What he failed to account for, is his drastic change of position (the first part of my post you cited). He continued to avoid the issue completely.

 

[Charlie99]

That's my point. It worked. LHL is none of the calibre of LKY. You tease him and tease him and he gives in.

Try that with LKY and you go in where roti kaya, nasi lemak and teh-o are free.

Sir Ramseth, are you sure at that heavenly place, they provide roti kaya? may be roti without kaya plus teh O?

 

[Charlie99]

Yes, GD sir. Completely siam man!!!

Case confirmed, GMS is a mole. Then I better not tekan him any further. Wait he bao tou me I kena lagi telok.

hey, are you a 'Chinese Helicopter' or on purpose use "telok" instead of " terok".
Just teasing you.