Hougang By-Eelection & Impact of YSL Saga II

[Goh Meng Seng]

http://singaporealternatives.blogspot.com/2012/05/hougang-by-eelection-impact-of-ysl-saga.html

It is a bit ironic for me to write about Hougang By-election on the EVE of 1st year anniversary of last GE. It exposes the weakness of the key opposition party WP which has its own MP self implode to such an extend that a hard fought seat has been lost less than 1 year after GE.

<b>When is the By-Election </b>

Sin Ming has reported that the Hougang By-election may be held on 26 May 20112. According to the same report, PM's ward Ang Mo Kio GRC will be holding by-election along Hougang as well. I have done some check on these information and find that it is quite likely to be so. I believe the details on the by-elections will be announced very soon. Nevertheless, I may be wrong but let's look at Hougang and impact of YSL so far.
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</b>
<b>NSP: Show or no show?</b>

Nicole Seah has declared that she is not going to contest in the Hougang by-election. This is good news for WP and ardent opposition supporters who don't want to see 3 corner fight, but it is bad news for NSP. Nicole Seah has said something more than necessary to compromise her party's position. She has said that ANYONE who intends to contest Hougang would be disrespecting the decades of hard work Low Thia Khiang has put in Hougang. This may sound "good" on the surface but it has basically closed the door for NSP to contest in Hougang. Intriguingly, NSP SG Hazel Poa and Chairman Sebastian Teo have repeatedly said that NSP has not decided on this matter yet.

Is NSP still trying to call the bluff? Who else could they send beside Nicole? I don't think Hazel nor Sebastian would go to Hougang personally. Jeanette? Seriously, I don't believe anyone else in NSP would be effective or suitable for Hougang by-election at all. Thus, most likely, NSP will be a "no-show" in Hougang by-election unless they end up sending just anyone anyhow. That would be bad for NSP's branding and image in the long run because it would truly be viewed as a "spoiler", insincere and taking elections too lightly. One of the key reasons why I feel that sending Nicole to Hougang by-election would be a good move is because it would not make NSP look like a "spoiler" but taking the contest very seriously. So serious that they would stake their most popular candidate to contest.

<b>3 Corner Fights Everywhere for Next GE?</b>

With the loss of such strategic option, NSP will have a hard time in future negotiation to avoid 3 corner fights with WP. Interestingly, Zaobao has written a <a href="http://www.zaobao.com.sg/sp/sp120506_001.shtml">news report </a>on WP's intention to contest in Tampines GRC for the next GE. (For some strange reasons, it quoted my earlier post while one of its reporter Yew Lun Tian has written a commentary making unwarranted attacks on me to justify not reporting on the same article.) It reported Sylvia Lim saying that WP intended to expand its contest to include 8 GRCs for the next contest. She has given a hint on where these 8 GRCs would be. She has indicated that proximity to WP's bases in Hougang and and Aljunied GRC would be the key consideration. If you look at the map, this would mean that WP's expansion plan would most probably include Tampines, Marine Parade, Bishan-Toa Payoh and either Pungol-Pasir Ris or Tg Pagar, on top of the 4 GRCs they have contested in GE2011.

<b>NSP Strategically Cornered</b>

NSP would not be able to put up a "brave front" during the negotiation in order to scare off WP from Tampines and Marine Parade. Who would believe NSP to have the courage to fight any 3 corner fights with WP in a GRC when it does not even have the courage to fight a 3 corner fight in a Hougang SMC now? Least to say that any "threats" of possible retaliation of sending teams to Aljunied or East Coast or even Hougang would be not be viewed as credible threats at all. NSP is strategically cornered. Its "subtle threat" of contesting in Hougang (in the hope for negotiation on avoidance of future clashes) has lost credibility after Nicole Seah's comment. This will affect all future plans and 3 corner fights in NSP's best turfs, Tampines and Marine Parade will be inevitable unless "miracle" happens. There is one possible way for such miracle to happen but I shall leave it to another post another day.

<b>The Inconsequential AMK GRC By-Election</b> <b>Strategy</b>

The initial information I gathered indicated that PAP might want to combine Ang Mo Kio GRC with Hougang SMC while cutting out Yio Chu Kang from the present AMK GRC to form a SMC by redrawing the boundaries prior to the by-election. This would raise the difficulty for WP in defending Hougang and provide a real chance for PAP to take back Hougang SMC while reducing WP's seats in parliament. However, I believe this plan has been shelved because strategically, it is unsound for the ruling party to risk its PM's standing for a SMC which doesn't threaten PAP's ruling party status. It might just worsen PAP's public image of playing dirty with such underhand tactic.

PAP may want to use the corresponding AMK GRC by-election to make a contrast to WP: PAP calls for by-election because it wanted renewal to its rank, WP wanted to call for by-election because its MP just screw up badly. PAP may also use the opportunity to sell the idea that they could put Hougang SMC under the PM's direct care in AMK GRC if they win Hougang. I do not think WP will contest in AMK by-election and whether other opposition parties will turn up is yet to be seen (quite unlikely to me). But if WP really did contest in AMK by-election, it would be an interesting contest. That could be seen as a way to counter PM's proposition... well, let WP win AMK and they could still let Hougang to combine with AMK Town council! However, this will be quite unlikely when we take into the consideration of the wide impact of Yaw-gate beyond Hougang.&nbsp;

<b>Depth of Yaw-gate impact</b>

Even with the certainty of a straight fight in Hougang SMC, there is no reason for WP to feel complacent at all. According to verified information, WP is facing a rather serious and obvious backlash from the ground. These negative sentiments appear beyond the boundaries of Hougang and Aljunied. According to sources, WP has stopped the weekly sales of its publication Hammer for about two months now. They have stopped this very important ground activity just not too long after Yaw Shin Leong has been sacked.

The official WP's reason for the cessations of the weekly Hammer sales is that they wanted to concentrate on the ground work in Hougang and Aljunied. For those who lack the understanding of WP's political operations, weekly Hammer sales is one of the most important political ground work for the party. It provides consistent visibility of the party to the public, allowing the party to engage the voters on the ground while earning some funds for party's operations. It also allows the party to gauge public sentiments and judge the party's support around Singapore. WP will not stop weekly Hammer sales without any good reasons, especially so for an extended period of time.

According to sources, the real reason for the temporary cessation of Hammer sales is due to the ground's sarcasm and harsh questioning on what exactly happened to Yaw Shin Leong. They even got into argument with residents in Yishun which resulted a public show of discontent at the party. Eventually, WP decided to stop the Hammer sales altogether for the time being, hoping that such public backlash and discontent would subside after some time.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Such public show of discontent at WP may not be apparently evident in Hougang but it is creeping into the middle ground voters' mind. There is no doubt that the YSL saga has long lasting impact on not only WP but on other opposition parties as well. Other opposition parties have also faced mean and nasty sarcasm from the ground with regards to YSL even when they tried to explain that ther are not WP. The vast and depth of the negative impact of Yaw-gate on WP and the whole opposition movement cannot be underestimated lightly.

<b>Expected Vote Swing against WP and its implications </b>

The expected swing of votes against WP is about 5% to 8%. Although nobody would expect a 15% vote swing but if it happens and there isn't a 3 corner fight, WP will lose its Hougang seat to PAP. As I have indicated in my previous post before, a 3 corner fight may not be a bad thing for WP if the third candidate isn't that strong. It would help to cushion the impact of vote swing against WP.

The extend of the vote swing in Hougang against WP would affect its strategic options for the next GE. If the vote swing in Hougang is so great that it became a neck to neck fight in Hougang, WP may be forced to readjust its strategic positioning for the next GE. It may be an indication of bigger than expected general backlash against WP, all thanks to Yaw-gate and WP may have to reconsider very carefully on whether it is wise for it to go all out for 3 corner fights with parties like NSP.

Maybe, hopefully, it would just be a "blessing in disguise" for NSP's apparent lack of will to contest the Hougang by-election so that it would not be blamed for whatever impending big vote swing WP may face. i.e. it will not become the scape goat for blame.

<b>Conclusion</b>

Although this coming by-elections in Hougang as well as AMK GRC will not be "exciting" at all, but the result in Hougang will be very important as a testing stone for future GE dynamics.

Even without a 3 corner fight in Hougang, the extend of the vote swing against WP will dictate on WP's ability and strength of bashing into others' territories. If WP actually loses Hougang (i.e. 15% vote swing) in a straight fight, it would mean that even Aljunied may be in danger in next GE as well. Aljunied GRC has only a margin of less than 5%. A vote swing of more than 8% against WP in Hougang stronghold would imply a disastrous impact on WP's overall party brand image due to Yaw-gate.

The result of Hougang by-election will also be viewed as the judgement of Hougang voters on Low Thia Khiang's legacy and the method he handled Yaw-gate. Hougang is after all LTK's home base to start with. Whether his decades of hard work and legacy in Hougang would be destroyed by Yaw Shin Leong will be reflected by the outcome of Hougang by-electoin.&nbsp;

Goh Meng Seng

 

[zhihau]

hey! welcome back

 

[I_Hate_Pappies]

hey! welcome back

Welcome back? This fucker has never left this forum. Stalking and waiting for the next opportunity to attack WP. Take a look thread he first reply to after having gone missing since May day.

 

[Clone]

Bookmarked.

 

[scroobal]

When I saw the sub-header "Conclusion", I though he was going to indicate after the deep analysis who is going to win, how wide the swing etc. It was pure mush. Might as well don't do the analysis. If this was a exam paper, it will get an "F".

GMS, looks like you are not sure about WP or the PAP or what is going to happen. In that case, just do what Ron does. Anything adverse about the opposition he cuts and paste and puts misleading header. In between, he will place innocent video clips, articles and any other non political news to give the impression that he is an objective individual. At least learn from him how to do character assassination and subtle smearing.

People know you got axe to grind therefore and no value placed on your comments. Too obvious.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Scroobal,

This is strategy analysis, not statistical analysis. Unless I say I have done straw poll on the ground, else it would not be possible for us to say conclusively what's the swing. But my personal feel is that there will be a 5% to 8% which has been mentioned.

The conclusion is that there won't be 3 corner fight after Nicole Seah's booboo statement. i.e. She has just given NSP's game away. But having said that, WP won't have it easy either, due to the backlash.

In Hougang, you may have a group of more vocal WP supporters but that doesn't mean that there aren't any silent middle ground voters. In fact, if we study the past voting pattern, middle ground voters contributed to much vote swing. It will ring a danger bell if WP only manage 55% or below for this by-election in its stronghold Hougang.

And BTW, I have no axe to grind with WP. Nobody would say I have any axe to grind against NSP when I made critical statements about it, why would you think I have any axe to grind with WP? Take criticism in strife else you will end up like PAP which has always been accused to turn a deaf ear to criticisms and feedback.


Goh Meng Seng

When I saw the sub-header "Conclusion", I though he was going to indicate after the deep analysis who is going to win, how wide the swing etc. It was pure mush. Might as well don't do the analysis. If this was a exam paper, it will get an "F".

GMS, looks like you are not sure about WP or the PAP or what is going to happen. In that case, just do what Ron does. Anything adverse about the opposition he cuts and paste and puts misleading header. In between, he will place innocent video clips, articles and any other non political news to give the impression that he is an objective individual. At least learn from him how to do character assassination and subtle smearing.

People know you got axe to grind therefore and no value placed on your comments. Too obvious.

 

[Kinana]

Great analysis.

I fully agree with you that Nicole Seah was too quick to open her big mouth and ended up strapping her own party unnecessarily in the process.
Its self above party for her.

 

[scroobal]

Even in a qualitative analysis, there must be a clear steer from you analysis. If you think that it is close fight and it can go either, then say so. You are hedging your bet and hedgeing your first hedge.

I can tell you that if Hougang remains as an SMC, WP will retain. Even there are disgruntled aunties in the lot from YSL's adventures, the ward and the franchise owner is LTK. Yaw is only a PA at best. It had not done enough to be considered any other thing. So the swing has to be massive. It never happen.

If the PAP collapses and does the biggest gerrymandering in its less then illustrious history, then the game plan changes significantly.

However it been done to bring a new chap or chaps, no decision yet. And to down play the loss of Hougang again.

As to NSP, do another thread. It will be square one at the next GE. Nicole and Jeanette would vamoose. Sebastian and the behind the scene man Chris - will be waiting for the next set of instructions from their handlers.

Scroobal,

This is strategy analysis, not statistical analysis. Unless I say I have done straw poll on the ground, else it would not be possible for us to say conclusively what's the swing. But my personal feel is that there will be a 5% to 8% which has been mentioned.

The conclusion is that there won't be 3 corner fight after Nicole Seah's booboo statement. i.e. She has just given NSP's game away. But having said that, WP won't have it easy either, due to the backlash.

In Hougang, you may have a group of more vocal WP supporters but that doesn't mean that there aren't any silent middle ground voters. In fact, if we study the past voting pattern, middle ground voters contributed to much vote swing. It will ring a danger bell if WP only manage 55% or below for this by-election in its stronghold Hougang.

And BTW, I have no axe to grind with WP. Nobody would say I have any axe to grind against NSP when I made critical statements about it, why would you think I have any axe to grind with WP? Take criticism in strife else you will end up like PAP which has always been accused to turn a deaf ear to criticisms and feedback.


Goh Meng Seng

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Dear Scroobal,

I hope you could read my article carefully. I did mention that possibility for WP to lose Hougang (presumably it will stay single) is slim, though historically, a vote swing of 15% is never impossible. We have seen more than 30% vote swing before historically, though it was against PAP. But just that swingers owe nobody any loyalty. Thus, it is really just too presumptuous to say that WP will definitely win. Never say never in politics.

As this article is an analysis on Hougang by-election, I do not find it suitable to discuss the "future" of either WP or NSP unless it has the linkages to the intent of either players to use this by-election to somehow hedge on future dynamics. Sylvia Lim can talk big as she can about contesting 8 GRCs but I would be more cautious in making such statements before I look at my own backyard. As for NSP, it is not without its problems. Well, these analysis of individual parties, I shall leave them to another article, another day.

You are only partly right on LTK is the main player in Hougang. But again, it would be overly presumptuous that Hougang supporters would vote WP just because of LTK. The middle neutral ground of swing voters is as big as 35% on National average. This has been shown in last Presidential Elections. I would caution anyone to take them for granted. There might be home ground advantage for LTK but I believe Hougang ground isn't that different from National normal distribution. Historically, vote swing in Hougang can be as great as 12%, if you take the lowest votes WP got vs the present highest point. Well, even with that 12% vote swing, WP will still survive. However, that would imply danger for Aljunied and I seriously doubt that WP should engage itself in three corner fights during next GE if this is the case. It would better focus and concentrate on the battle in Aljunied and Hougang to hold the ground and avoid giving other parties the excuse of contesting in these two wards.

Furthermore, WP suffers on both fronts, first, the disappointing Yaw-gate, secondly, the choice of his replacement. The impact of these factors should be taken into careful considerations. On top of that, the plagiarism issue plus the MX-9 ministerial debate will become a liability issue for this by-election. Rest be assured that PAP won't miss punching these bags hard. An estimate of 5% to 8% vote swing is a reasonable one.


Goh Meng Seng

Even in a qualitative analysis, there must be a clear steer from you analysis. If you think that it is close fight and it can go either, then say so. You are hedging your bet and hedgeing your first hedge.

I can tell you that if Hougang remains as an SMC, WP will retain. Even there are disgruntled aunties in the lot from YSL's adventures, the ward and the franchise owner is LTK. Yaw is only a PA at best. It had not done enough to be considered any other thing. So the swing has to be massive. It never happen.

If the PAP collapses and does the biggest gerrymandering in its less then illustrious history, then the game plan changes significantly.

However it been done to bring a new chap or chaps, no decision yet. And to down play the loss of Hougang again.

As to NSP, do another thread. It will be square one at the next GE. Nicole and Jeanette would vamoose. Sebastian and the behind the scene man Chris - will be waiting for the next set of instructions from their handlers.

 

[deepblue0911]

Dear Scroobal,

I hope you could read my article carefully. I did mention that possibility for WP to lose Hougang (presumably it will stay single) is slim, though historically, a vote swing of 15% is never impossible. We have seen more than 30% vote swing before historically, though it was against PAP. But just that swingers owe nobody any loyalty. Thus, it is really just too presumptuous to say that WP will definitely win. Never say never in politics.

As this article is an analysis on Hougang by-election, I do not find it suitable to discuss the "future" of either WP or NSP unless it has the linkages to the intent of either players to use this by-election to somehow hedge on future dynamics. Sylvia Lim can talk big as she can about contesting 8 GRCs but I would be more cautious in making such statements before I look at my own backyard. As for NSP, it is not without its problems. Well, these analysis of individual parties, I shall leave them to another article, another day.

You are only partly right on LTK is the main player in Hougang. But again, it would be overly presumptuous that Hougang supporters would vote WP just because of LTK. The middle neutral ground of swing voters is as big as 35% on National average. This has been shown in last Presidential Elections. I would caution anyone to take them for granted. There might be home ground advantage for LTK but I believe Hougang ground isn't that different from National normal distribution. Historically, vote swing in Hougang can be as great as 12%, if you take the lowest votes WP got vs the present highest point. Well, even with that 12% vote swing, WP will still survive. However, that would imply danger for Aljunied and I seriously doubt that WP should engage itself in three corner fights during next GE if this is the case. It would better focus and concentrate on the battle in Aljunied and Hougang to hold the ground and avoid giving other parties the excuse of contesting in these two wards.

Furthermore, WP suffers on both fronts, first, the disappointing Yaw-gate, secondly, the choice of his replacement. The impact of these factors should be taken into careful considerations. On top of that, the plagiarism issue plus the MX-9 ministerial debate will become a liability issue for this by-election. Rest be assured that PAP won't miss punching these bags hard. An estimate of 5% to 8% vote swing is a reasonable one.


Goh Meng Seng

Basically, your conclusion is inconclusive, apart from saying a possible vote swing of 5-8%. In any case, it's not clear from your article what you're driving at, apart from rehashing all the points you've previously raised. Political commentary is not just writing what goes on in your head. Maybe you should watch some episodes of Jon Stewart's Tonight Show. That's sharp political commentary wrapped in wit and wisdom.

Not everyone can be a political commentator. And Jon Stewart did not even claim to be one. He's a comedian. Learn from him.

 

[AhFook]

gms, you must have been really hurt, hurt real bad as shown in the many 'expert analysis' of yours. kena kicked out of wp, chased out of nsp, hdb gone, you have my sympathy...

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

I would wish politics is such a simple affair to begin with!

Maybe you have missed the conclusion totally. Simple conclusion, no 3 corner fight, not much of excitement but nervous outcome for WP.

This by-election is more of the future directional indicator rather than the by-election itself. That's the conclusion. How WP fare will influence its behavior and dynamics in future GEs. It would be a bit surprising if WP kena more than 8% vote swing or even lose its seat but that is not totally inconceivable. This is because of the backlash they are experiencing from their weekly Hammer sales which indicated that negative undercurrent of Yaw-gate is quite huge amidst a calm surface projected so far.

Unlike some so call "political analysts", I will not make too bold predictions on this by-election. Even some of my most optimistic WP friends have to admit that there seems to be a tense undercurrent going around. This will keep them in suspense until polling day.

Goh Meng Seng

Basically, your conclusion is inconclusive, apart from saying a possible vote swing of 5-8%. In any case, it's not clear from your article what you're driving at, apart from rehashing all the points you've previously raised. Political commentary is not just writing what goes on in your head. Maybe you should watch some episodes of Jon Stewart's Tonight Show. That's sharp political commentary wrapped in wit and wisdom.

Not everyone can be a political commentator. And Jon Stewart did not even claim to be one. He's a comedian. Learn from him.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

I am surprised that you can only come up with such nonsense instead of refuting me on the backlash WP has been facing on the ground.

Goh Meng Seng

gms, you must have been really hurt, hurt real bad as shown in the many 'expert analysis' of yours. kena kicked out of wp, chased out of nsp, hdb gone, you have my sympathy...

 

[Kinana]

Why are you folks against Mr.Goh? There is nothing wrong with his analysis at all.

 

[deepblue0911]

Why are you folks against Mr.Goh? There is nothing wrong with his analysis at all.

How could there be anything wrong when he's not saying much? In Chinese, it's known as 讲了等于没讲. Can you show me one part of GMS' article above that is new and never said before?

So you're right, Kinana. There's nothing wrong with his analysis. Just useless.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

As usual, you didn't read properly. There are some new information. Most important information is about WP facing negative ground backlash during their weekly Hammer sales. The incident at Yishun is pretty quite classic.

Goh Meng Seng

How could there be anything wrong when he's not saying much? In Chinese, it's known as 讲了等于没讲. Can you show me one part of GMS' article above that is new and never said before?

So you're right, Kinana. There's nothing wrong with his analysis. Just useless.

 

[deepblue0911]

As usual, you didn't read properly. There are some new information. Most important information is about WP facing negative ground backlash during their weekly Hammer sales. The incident at Yishun is pretty quite classic.

Goh Meng Seng

And your point is backlash against WP due to YSL incident. And this is new? You've been talking about YSL backlash for as long as I can remember. Sorry, nothing new here. Next?

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Talk only talk, real action seen on the ground is totally different because it demonstrates the level of frustrations.

Singaporeans are mostly very conservative people and most of the time, they won't do such thing to opposition party members. Even though they may not vote opposition parties but there will always be a basic respect maintained. For such thing to carry on until to the level of putting a stop on the Hammer sales, it is definitely no small matter.

Believe it or not, such sentiments are fermenting. The most ugly comment I have heard so far is "WP backside hasn't even warm the seat but yet start shitting all over place".

Goh Meng Seng

And your point is backlash against WP due to YSL incident. And this is new? You've been talking about YSL backlash for as long as I can remember. Sorry, nothing new here. Next?

 

[Zombie]

And your point is backlash against WP due to YSL incident. And this is new? You've been talking about YSL backlash for as long as I can remember. Sorry, nothing new here. Next?

this is called 炒冷饭.. frying cold rice...

 

[deepblue0911]

Talk only talk, real action seen on the ground is totally different because it demonstrates the level of frustrations.

Singaporeans are mostly very conservative people and most of the time, they won't do such thing to opposition party members. Even though they may not vote opposition parties but there will always be a basic respect maintained. For such thing to carry on until to the level of putting a stop on the Hammer sales, it is definitely no small matter.

Believe it or not, such sentiments are fermenting. The most ugly comment I have heard so far is "WP backside hasn't even warm the seat but yet start shitting all over place".

Goh Meng Seng

I do not doubt the authencity of the ground sentiments you cited. I think it's natural for residents to feel frustrated or even angry. And perhaps WP will really suffer a backlash at the BE. Well, that's the political cost they've to bear as a party. 怨不得人

But that still doesn't change my point: your article does not offer any new insights. The incidents you cited support your point about backlash, which you've been flogging like a bloody dead horse for ages. Sorry Mr. Goh, still nothing new.