http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking+News/Singapore/Story/STIStory_314914.html
MORE than 35 people lost their jobs every day between July and September this year, a large jump from 21 a day in the preceding three months.
The increase signals the start of the economic crisis, captured vividly in the latest figures released by the Manpower Ministry yesterday.
Real wages continue their slide
SALARIES have shrunk again with inflation eating into wage gains.
Latest figures from the Manpower Ministry's third-quarter labour market report show that workers were worse off compared to a year ago.
The ministry's report shows 3,178 people were laid off or had their contracts ended prematurely in the third quarter.
This is a 70 per cent spike compared to 1,884 in the second quarter, and marks the highest number of job losses since the last quarter of 2006.
Still, analysts say the situation will only get worse. That is because the July to September figures do not fully capture the total impact of the financial fallout sparked by the collapse on Sept 15 of American investment bank Lehman Brothers.
As it is, every economic indicator in the ministry's report bore bad news.
Fewer jobs were created and hiring is set to slow down, adding to the gloom of the growing pool of 65,400 jobless locals.
Only 55,700 jobs were added in the third quarter, much lower than the job gains of 71,400 in the second quarter and slightly lower than 58,600 added in the same quarter last year.
The recruitment rate dipped from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent, as the financial services sector cut down on hiring.
Employers were also saddled with lower worker output levels as productivity fell for the fourth quarter in a row. Of the series of four drops, the latest decline of 9.6 per cent is the sharpest.
One tiny bright spot, however, is that some service sector companies are likely to continue to hire in the fourth quarter, thanks to the festive season.
But even then, fewer are saying they would do so compared to the last quarter.
The most stark figure is the number of those laid off and those whose contracts have been ended early. They make up the 'total redundancy' figure.
Among the more than 3,000 redundant people, around 80 per cent or 2,346 were retrenched. Job losses were more prevalent in the manufacturing sector, which accounted for seven in 10 of those laid off.
The rest were contract workers. About 830 had their contracts terminated early in the third quarter, almost 10 times more than the 86 in the second quarter.
More are set to suffer the same fate.
Mr Paul Heng, managing director of NeXT Career Consulting, expects the sweeping job losses to come 'like a tsunami' next year.
There were 6,418 people retrenched in the first nine months of the year, with an initial forecast of layoffs to hover around 10,000 for the full year.
But it could be far worse, with Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew predicting that layoffs could surge to around 6,000 to 8,000 in the last three months of the year as the crisis deepens.
'I think the third-quarter figures hardly show the degree of the crisis,' he said.
As the job market worsens, Nanyang Technological University economist Choy Keen Meng expects the resident unemployment rate to go beyond 5 per cent next year.
It is lower than the peak of 6.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2003 during the Sars crisis, but he thinks the impact will be more prolonged now.
'Then, that figure was a bit of an aberration. It shot up and lasted for just one quarter. This time round, it could be above 5 per cent for six months to a year,' he said.
The resident unemployment rate - which does not factor in foreigners - stood at 3.3 per cent in September, slightly up from 3.1 per cent in June. The overall jobless rate - which includes foreigners - stood steady at 2.2 per cent.
As for when the gloom will finally lift, most analysts do not expect any good news till 2010.
Said Standard Chartered's Mr Liew: 'There is a lag between the job market and the economy. We may get the economy recovering in late 2009, and then more sustained job creation in the early months of 2010.'
[email protected]
MORE than 35 people lost their jobs every day between July and September this year, a large jump from 21 a day in the preceding three months.
The increase signals the start of the economic crisis, captured vividly in the latest figures released by the Manpower Ministry yesterday.
Real wages continue their slide
SALARIES have shrunk again with inflation eating into wage gains.
Latest figures from the Manpower Ministry's third-quarter labour market report show that workers were worse off compared to a year ago.
The ministry's report shows 3,178 people were laid off or had their contracts ended prematurely in the third quarter.
This is a 70 per cent spike compared to 1,884 in the second quarter, and marks the highest number of job losses since the last quarter of 2006.
Still, analysts say the situation will only get worse. That is because the July to September figures do not fully capture the total impact of the financial fallout sparked by the collapse on Sept 15 of American investment bank Lehman Brothers.
As it is, every economic indicator in the ministry's report bore bad news.
Fewer jobs were created and hiring is set to slow down, adding to the gloom of the growing pool of 65,400 jobless locals.
Only 55,700 jobs were added in the third quarter, much lower than the job gains of 71,400 in the second quarter and slightly lower than 58,600 added in the same quarter last year.
The recruitment rate dipped from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent, as the financial services sector cut down on hiring.
Employers were also saddled with lower worker output levels as productivity fell for the fourth quarter in a row. Of the series of four drops, the latest decline of 9.6 per cent is the sharpest.
One tiny bright spot, however, is that some service sector companies are likely to continue to hire in the fourth quarter, thanks to the festive season.
But even then, fewer are saying they would do so compared to the last quarter.
The most stark figure is the number of those laid off and those whose contracts have been ended early. They make up the 'total redundancy' figure.
Among the more than 3,000 redundant people, around 80 per cent or 2,346 were retrenched. Job losses were more prevalent in the manufacturing sector, which accounted for seven in 10 of those laid off.
The rest were contract workers. About 830 had their contracts terminated early in the third quarter, almost 10 times more than the 86 in the second quarter.
More are set to suffer the same fate.
Mr Paul Heng, managing director of NeXT Career Consulting, expects the sweeping job losses to come 'like a tsunami' next year.
There were 6,418 people retrenched in the first nine months of the year, with an initial forecast of layoffs to hover around 10,000 for the full year.
But it could be far worse, with Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew predicting that layoffs could surge to around 6,000 to 8,000 in the last three months of the year as the crisis deepens.
'I think the third-quarter figures hardly show the degree of the crisis,' he said.
As the job market worsens, Nanyang Technological University economist Choy Keen Meng expects the resident unemployment rate to go beyond 5 per cent next year.
It is lower than the peak of 6.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2003 during the Sars crisis, but he thinks the impact will be more prolonged now.
'Then, that figure was a bit of an aberration. It shot up and lasted for just one quarter. This time round, it could be above 5 per cent for six months to a year,' he said.
The resident unemployment rate - which does not factor in foreigners - stood at 3.3 per cent in September, slightly up from 3.1 per cent in June. The overall jobless rate - which includes foreigners - stood steady at 2.2 per cent.
As for when the gloom will finally lift, most analysts do not expect any good news till 2010.
Said Standard Chartered's Mr Liew: 'There is a lag between the job market and the economy. We may get the economy recovering in late 2009, and then more sustained job creation in the early months of 2010.'
[email protected]
