GMS Selling Home To Contest Election 吴明盛破釜沉舟背水一战

[Zombie]

Oh oh I'm hearing this, fussy, yah. Seller (government) tags to market price and expect buyers to be communist commune resident taker?

you take drugs?

 

[blueblobster]

people were complaining that mbt was not doing his job because he did not produce enough new flats, and thus new buyers were forced to pay a high price...

and now you are saying that gms will be doing a good job because he will still keep a limit of new flats, so that enough new buyers are forced to pay a high price to support the resale market, while the lucky ones get preferential treatments...

You obviously didn't read my post carefully, if at all.

 

[sampierre]

吴明盛破釜沉舟背水一战

GMS has decided to sell his home to finance his election contest against MBT. It's a HDB 4-room in Serangoon North area. His asking price is S$20k COV (common market COV now) if blue IC PR buyer. However, if Singaporean pink IC buyer, he's willing to accept S$5k COV, a personal discount of S$15k for fellow citizens in need of a flat in that area.

He's not paid S$2m+ like MBT. He needs to finance a huge campaign against MBT in Tampines GRC for what he believes in and what he believes to be better for his country and his fellow Singaporeans. He'll rent a room from friends or relatives while carrying on this fight.



Dear Goh Meng Seng,

I really don't quite understand why you need to take this drastic measure of selling your flat to finance an election campaign against Maboro Tan and his team in Tampines GRC?? By extension of your logic, does it mean that every Opposition candidate, with the exception of incumbents Low TK & Chiam, need to sell his/her flat to finance their election campaign?? In the past, I've NEVER heard of any candidate selling his/her flat to fight an election against the PAP. Assuming your 4-room flat is worth $400k, do you honestly gonna spend this money in your election campaign?? I am sure that are some election rules that forbid a candidate from spending too much money during the campaign.

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT TAMPINES IS A FIVE-MAN GRC, AND YOU CANNOT BE A ONE-MAN TEAM COMPETING AGAINST 5 PAP CANDIDATES IN THE COMING ELECTIONS. WHERE ARE THE OTHER 4 MEMBERS OF YOUR NSP TEAM?? ARE THEY NOT CONTRIBUTING TO THE ELECTION FINANCES??

Or are you saying that the other 4 members are broke and you need to pay everything for them?? The Opposition cannot "afford" to have a NSP team
going around telling people that they have no money and hoping that Tampines residents cast sympathy votes so that they can beat the PAP candidates.!!

If you only desire to win a NCMP seat, then I am very SURE that as long as you get 35% of the votes, either in a single ward or a GRC, you are definitely going to be a NCMP since there are 9 NCMP seats available in the next Parliament. NO NEED TO SELL HOUSE to achieve this result. Afterall, your modus operandi is quite straightforward : going to the Tampines MRT station and coffee shops to shake hands and engage in small talk with residents and shopkeepers, distribute flyers, and sell party papers.
HOWEVER, IF YOU ARE NOT COMMITTING TIME AND MONEY IN ORGANISING GRASSROOTS ACTIVITIES FOR THE RESIDENTS, I DON'T SEE HOW YOU CAN BE A THREAT TO MAH BOW TAN AND HIS TEAM. AND ALSO YOU MUST TAKE THE MALAY GROUND SERIOUSLY.

 

[Chau Ve Nist]

Dear Goh Meng Seng, I really don't quite understand why you need to take this drastic measure of selling your flat to finance an election campaign against Maboro Tan and his team in Tampines GRC??

Before everyone goes ga-ga and are hoodwinked by GM's act of supreme "personal self-sacrifice" of selling his flat for his countrymen, let me help bring everyone back to reality.

A significant portion of the proceed of the sale of his flat (cost + interest) will be returned to his CPF. He is not allowed to use it. A colleague of mine who sold his flat for $350,000 received only $6,000 in cash. The rest went back to his CPF and agent's fees. GMS will receive more cash depending on how much he paid for his flat and in view of him, ironically, cashing in on the appreciation of the price of his flat.

The election deposit is $13,500/candidate (2006 figure). For a 5 man GRC team, it is $67,500. GMs is not going to lose this money. Not unless he polls less than 12.5% of the votes. Like GMS himself, I have no doubts that he will be able to secure more than 12.5 % of the votes and get back this $67,500.

Hence, all that he stands to "lose" is actually Cash Proceeds - $67,500 - X.

That X represents a figure that may be his wife's share of the flat or a figure that goes into his wife's or daughter's personal savings or a figure he will not divulge for obvious reasons that it will take the gloss and shine of his announcement.

The highest candidate in the 1991 election was the PAP's Seet Ai Mei. She spent $23,913 but lost her seat. The SDP's Cheo Chai Chen spent $2,188 but won. The PAP, with its 80+ candidates, spent about $500,000 for banners and leaflets which they flooded the island with. This works out to about $4,500/candidate.

While it cannot be argued that losing elections cost money, it is not in the hundreds of thousands of dollars suggested by GMS' theatrical announcement of the sale of his flat.

MPs' allowances are pegged to public sector pay and economic growth. At its' nadir in 2008, MPs' allowances were down 19% because of the poor economy. Even then, all MPs, including LTK and CST, received $190,000 for that year. (Now, do you now why CST would like to bequeath his seat to his wife and no one else when he has to confront his mortality?)

Win the elections and your "loss" can be covered in no less than 1.5 months of the very generous MP's allowance. Settle for the NCMP seat and the "loss" can be covered within a year.

GMs is selling his flat not just for elections like he wants everyone to think. A permanent move to Hongkong in case he doesn't land that $190,000(minimum) MP job is on his mind. Better for GMS to be upfront and not try to hoodwink everyone into thinking that he is "sacrificing" his entire $300,000+ from the sale of his flat.

No less than one million dollar returns in 5 years on a $20-30K gamble? Decent bet, I would say. Plus don't forget the free publicity and the impression created on the gullible off a "selfless" man out to "sacrifice" himself and his family for the country.

 

[Robert Half]

No assurance of NCMP seats even if Opposition score a 35% votes.

Now we know NSP members have no financial means of campaigning and contesting in a General Election.

 

[Perspective]

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT TAMPINES IS A FIVE-MAN GRC, AND YOU CANNOT BE A ONE-MAN TEAM COMPETING AGAINST 5 PAP CANDIDATES IN THE COMING ELECTIONS. WHERE ARE THE OTHER 4 MEMBERS OF YOUR NSP TEAM?? ARE THEY NOT CONTRIBUTING TO THE ELECTION FINANCES??

Or are you saying that the other 4 members are broke and you need to pay everything for them?? The Opposition cannot "afford" to have a NSP team
going around telling people that they have no money and hoping that Tampines residents cast sympathy votes so that they can beat the PAP candidates.!!

The tricky part is that you HAVE ALREADY financed the campaign of your PAP candidates, unless you live in Hougang or PP. The PAP might not have been rich at first. Labour MPs like Ong Ah Heng probably borrowed money for the 1st time from another PAP candidate who did at least one term. His 2nd term would then be no problem. (You want know how much full time labour MPs are paid in NTUC? Surprisingly, it's pathetic.)

Hence while the NSP is poor, it has a higher moral ground since none of them were ever elected.

 

[Perspective]

A significant portion of the proceed of the sale of his flat (cost + interest) will be returned to his CPF. He is not allowed to use it. A colleague of mine who sold his flat for $350,000 received only $6,000 in cash. The rest went back to his CPF and agent's fees. GMS will receive more cash depending on how much he paid for his flat and in view of him, ironically, cashing in on the appreciation of the price of his flat.

You only return money to CPF when you use your CPF to pay for your flat. How did you know he used his CPF and not upfront monthly cash?

One thing slipped your mind that you probably know and everyone knows - for a very long time he's a businessman, in fact a bizman since graduation. Hence his CPF is likely to be kosong and he uses cash to pay for mortgage loan. Hence when he sells his flat, he gets back the same cash (maybe even lower).

 

[Zombie]

You obviously didn't read my post carefully, if at all.

the gist of your last post was "limited new flats"

but you did not even think in financial sense..

a new flat buyer probably earns 2-3k a month.. 6 digits savings plus interest cost savings means some 3-5 years of free income...

if rental is 1200 per month, the total savings can last him almost 7 years of rent... plus an average hdb waiting time of 3 years... meaning he got nothing to lose if he has to wait for 10 years

there are already many complaints now about having to wait 3 years just to get a new flat... do you think gms's hdb can afford to deliver an order 10 years later?

 

[Zombie]

Before everyone goes ga-ga and are hoodwinked by GM's act of supreme "personal self-sacrifice" of selling his flat for his countrymen, let me help bring everyone back to reality.

A significant portion of the proceed of the sale of his flat (cost + interest) will be returned to his CPF. He is not allowed to use it. A colleague of mine who sold his flat for $350,000 received only $6,000 in cash. The rest went back to his CPF and agent's fees. GMS will receive more cash depending on how much he paid for his flat and in view of him, ironically, cashing in on the appreciation of the price of his flat.

The election deposit is $13,500/candidate (2006 figure). For a 5 man GRC team, it is $67,500. GMs is not going to lose this money. Not unless he polls less than 12.5% of the votes. Like GMS himself, I have no doubts that he will be able to secure more than 12.5 % of the votes and get back this $67,500.

Hence, all that he stands to "lose" is actually Cash Proceeds - $67,500 - X.

That X represents a figure that may be his wife's share of the flat or a figure that goes into his wife's or daughter's personal savings or a figure he will not divulge for obvious reasons that it will take the gloss and shine of his announcement.

The highest candidate in the 1991 election was the PAP's Seet Ai Mei. She spent $23,913 but lost her seat. The SDP's Cheo Chai Chen spent $2,188 but won. The PAP, with its 80+ candidates, spent about $500,000 for banners and leaflets which they flooded the island with. This works out to about $4,500/candidate.

While it cannot be argued that losing elections cost money, it is not in the hundreds of thousands of dollars suggested by GMS' theatrical announcement of the sale of his flat.

MPs' allowances are pegged to public sector pay and economic growth. At its' nadir in 2008, MPs' allowances were down 19% because of the poor economy. Even then, all MPs, including LTK and CST, received $190,000 for that year. (Now, do you now why CST would like to bequeath his seat to his wife and no one else when he has to confront his mortality?)

Win the elections and your "loss" can be covered in no less than 1.5 months of the very generous MP's allowance. Settle for the NCMP seat and the "loss" can be covered within a year.

GMs is selling his flat not just for elections like he wants everyone to think. A permanent move to Hongkong in case he doesn't land that $190,000(minimum) MP job is on his mind. Better for GMS to be upfront and not try to hoodwink everyone into thinking that he is "sacrificing" his entire $300,000+ from the sale of his flat.

No less than one million dollar returns in 5 years on a $20-30K gamble? Decent bet, I would say. Plus don't forget the free publicity and the impression created on the gullible off a "selfless" man out to "sacrifice" himself and his family for the country.

very comprehensive.... this is probably the first salvo bombings.....

 

[kingrant]

Good points. Spoken with knowledge.

You only return money to CPF when you use your CPF to pay for your flat. How did you know he used his CPF and not upfront monthly cash?

One thing slipped your mind that you probably know and everyone knows - for a very long time he's a businessman, in fact a bizman since graduation. Hence his CPF is likely to be kosong and he uses cash to pay for mortgage loan. Hence when he sells his flat, he gets back the same cash (maybe even lower).

 

[Ramseth]

No less than one million dollar returns in 5 years on a $20-30K gamble? Decent bet, I would say.

Regardless of source of funds for deposits and expenses, if what you say is true, then all candidates are making a "decent bet." They're all opportunists and we shouldn't vote for any of them. Spoil all votes?

 

[kingrant]

GMS,

I understand yr intent. But let's go 5 or even 10 years down the road, after yr policy. Yr erstwhile "new low-priced flat" is then a 5-10 yr old one. What resale price would/could/should the flat be? Will it follow the prrices of other non-GMS policy flats?

Yr policy will be fair if like old car with COEs, buyers will not pay any old how but look back at how much - both the car and the COE -were bought, before offering a price.

So in effect, we will have two types of resale flats. With two different levels of resale pricing? And the GMS type must have restrictions like it must be sold back to HDB, or lived in for more than 10 years, or even to first time buyers?

Seek to understand.

Dear Longbow,

You are only half right.

The link between prices of new flats and resale flats is "ARTIFICIALLY" done by HDB/PAP. The link is ONE WAY, whereby prices of new flats are pegged by HDB/PAP to the resale prices. This is link is NOT vice verse.

There is no DIRECT link of resale flat prices to price of new flats. What I am doing is to fight for the DE-LINK of prices of new HDB flats to the resale market. How could such DE-LINK affect the resale market prices? The impact on resale market prices, if any, would be very minimal.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Ramseth]

Many people mistaken that once a candidate (whether PAP or opposition) gets elected, s/he'd get to keep all the S$13k or so allowance. That's not the case.

An MP has to contribute to party funds (the party that fielded him/her and helped him/her get elected) and his/her personal grassroot support expenses.

I estimate that an MP gets to keep between 1/3 to 1/2 of allowance.

A minister is different. The multi-million dollar salary is all his/her to keep. No opposition MP can be a minister unless PAP loses more than half of the seats.

 

[kingrant]

Ram,
I am waiting for GMS to respond to my post on same question on his delink flats.

You are right, this 5% (every year, 5 years??) is not going to affect the market prices very much. But after a sufficient number of years, cumulatively, 5% per year or 2 will become quite a lot in the resale market over say 10 years. By then, how will the resale pricing work because there will then be a mixture of flats bought high and sold high under the PAP system and those of GMS delink policy with low bought prices? Would Sinkies still offer high prices for them as we have now?

That is correct. In practice, not all 80% eligible are available. It's the same as my earliear say, it's not possible for HDB to redevelop a huge chunk of the market at one shot. Similarly, it's not possible that a huge chunk of the market wants to sell at one shot. But also in practice, not all 5% new are desirable even at a supposedly subsidised price. These natural market mechanisms that ensure stable flow of supply and demand.

 

[tonychat]

GMS should shut up from now. Or else many losers here try to question you and there for unnecessary things. I can see now how human behave when they seems threaten. wahahhahah...

Oh my .. oh my...

 

[blueblobster]

the gist of your last post was "limited new flats"

but you did not even think in financial sense..

a new flat buyer probably earns 2-3k a month.. 6 digits savings plus interest cost savings means some 3-5 years of free income...

if rental is 1200 per month, the total savings can last him almost 7 years of rent... plus an average hdb waiting time of 3 years... meaning he got nothing to lose if he has to wait for 10 years

there are already many complaints now about having to wait 3 years just to get a new flat... do you think gms's hdb can afford to deliver an order 10 years later?

That's not exactly the gist of my message but no point going back there. At least you read it

Do note that "limited flats" is a pre-existing situation and not an assumed scenario that will arise from GMS's policy.

If you think in terms of financial sense and economics, you will know that rental yields does have an effect on property prices. In your scenario, if everyone who is eligible for new flats choose to stay out and rent until he can get a new flat, it will push the rental price up since not all existing flats are available for rent. The rental in this case will no longer be in your hypothetical 1200 range. Simple supply vs demand as you have already pointed out in an earlier post. The rise in rental yield will eventually push the resale price up.

If HDB decides to build 5 blocks of new flats in Bishan, it does not matter whether they sell it at 1 million or 1 dollar. At the end, they only have 5 blocks available. If GMS's has his way and they are sold for 100k per unit, there will be a sudden drop in demand for resale flats. But once they are sold our, those who miss out and for whatever reason MUST live in Bishan will either have to rent (as per your scenario) or buy resale. Market forces will dictate and equilibrium will once again be reached, This is not much different from the present situation.

On your last point, it matters not how long GMS's HBD takes to build the new flats. In the first place, the 10 year period was your assumption (3 years to build, 7 year of rent). The waiting period for a new flat does not affect the issue in hand. In fact, it reinforces my argument that because new flats are limited, people who cannot wait will have to buy resale or rent. Either way, your opinion that cutting the price of new flats will drastically affect the prices of resale flats will NOT happen in the LONG RUN.

Finally, my post is NOT written to support GMS and his ideas or criticize MBT (although I think the latter is useless and given a choice between the two, I'll vote GMS anytime). It was solely to address your views in your replies to Ramseth.

Cheers.

 

[jw5]

Many people mistaken that once a candidate (whether PAP or opposition) gets elected, s/he'd get to keep all the S$13k or so allowance. That's not the case.

An MP has to contribute to party funds (the party that fielded him/her and helped him/her get elected) and his/her personal grassroot support expenses.

I estimate that an MP gets to keep between 1/3 to 1/2 of allowance.

A minister is different. The multi-million dollar salary is all his/her to keep. No opposition MP can be a minister unless PAP loses more than half of the seats.

I really wouldn't mind if we get a whole new lot of pappy ministars after the election.
This would mean that most of the incumbent ministars got voted out, but that the pappies still got more than 50% of the votes and parliamentary seats.
Even if the new ministars are still pappies, at least there would be a general lesson not to be too arrogant and to always work for the people.

 

[Sideswipe]

stop picking on GMS.

we all know, if he got elected, he's only there to make up the numbers in parliament or to provide checks and balances on PAP.

His HDB thinkings are not going to be implemented. Those are elections gimmicks, you guys ask a bit can already, no need to keep on digging for answers.

 

[Zombie]

If you think in terms of financial sense and economics, you will know that rental yields does have an effect on property prices........... The rise in rental yield will eventually push the resale price up.

That is because you missed out the latest economist report... that prices are already overvalued by some 20%(?) as compared to rent. In the event of selling and renting, no doubt rent goes up but price will also come down. And as foreigners are being checked, there will also be a drop in demands lowering rent.

But once they are sold our, those who miss out and for whatever reason MUST live in Bishan will either have to rent (as per your scenario) or buy resale. ...
The waiting period for a new flat does not affect the issue in hand.

people talk about money, needs, price elasticity...
you start talking about kam cheng, wants??

A rising tide lifts all boats and the reverse is also true... no doubt people who love RI must pay a price in the Bishan resale market... but on the whole as demands in overall resale market got shifted out, Bishan prices will also drop.. most incomer earners will know what a bargain they get from 6 digits savings, the same reason why gms tries for tampines...

 

[Chau Ve Nist]

You only return money to CPF when you use your CPF to pay for your flat. How did you know he used his CPF and not upfront monthly cash?).

One thing slipped your mind that you probably know and everyone knows - for a very long time he's a businessman, in fact a bizman since graduation. Hence his CPF is likely to be kosong and he uses cash to pay for mortgage loan. Hence when he sells his flat, he gets back the same cash (maybe even lower).

I deliberately did not take into account his status as a businessman as it will make things worse.

If GMS can afford to pay upfront cash, he would have, as matter of common sense, contribute voluntary to his CPF from which he would then use to pay off his mortgage. This is since he stands to enjoy tax reliefs on his voluntary CPF contributions.

Be that as it may, the point is that while running for an election (or losing one) does cost money, it is not in the hundreds of thousands of dollar range suggested by GMS' announcement that he will sell his flat.

The figures I quoted for the PAP's biggest spender, Seet Ai Mei's $23, 913 expenditure refers.