Global US-Dollar Shortage - Are We Already in a Recession?

[Dr Christopher Cheok C S]

 

[k1976]

No worries, last time no cyptocurrency mah
Now got wonderful Bitcoin to save the day, according to many savvy bros

 

[k1976]

Fast forward 15mth..... Same old song continue​

​

Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon​

The government is staying open for now. But Bloomberg Economics sees risks ahead, from strikes to higher rates and oil prices.






US Government Shutdown Averted: What's Next?
Unmute




US Government Shutdown Averted: What's Next?
By Anna Wong and Tom Orlik
October 2, 2023 at 5:00 AM GMT+8

When everyone expects a soft landing, brace for impact. That’s the lesson of recent economic history — and it’s an uncomfortable one for the US right now.
A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world’s biggest economy will avoid recession.

 

[k1976]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ing-in-sign-of-lasting-boom?srnd=premium-asia




“There is still latent demand” from buyers despite economic challenges, said Alan Cheong, executive director of research at Savills Plc, adding he expects prices to increase this year and drift more sideways in 2024. “Domestically generated demand is fueling the market.”

Read more details on the home price moves
The increase in prices was “significantly lower” than the average quarterly gain of 2.1% seen last year, the authority said. It was fueled by a rise in prices of non-landed private homes — a term describing mostly condos and apartments — which climbed 2.1% from the last quarter.

The rebound was “not a surprise” and may have been driven by popular private project launches, said Ken Foong, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. He maintained his expectation that home price growth will remain “muted” at less than 2% in the second half and as much as 5% for the year.
Read a Bloomberg Intelligence note on the figures

Home sales in the city-state fell to a seven-month low in August, according to the latest figures released by the URA, due to slowing demand amid a dip in major project launches. Transaction volume in the third quarter was down 26% compared with a year ago.

(Updates with analyst comments in fifth and seventh paragraphs)

 

[k1976]

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-population-rises-most-in-15-years-to-a-record-220047206.html

​

Singapore population rises most in 15 years to a record​

Mon, 2 October 2023 at 6:00 am SGT·2-min read

Pedestrians at Orchard Road in Singapore, on Saturday, 11 Feb 2023. Singapore’s total population increased 5 percent to hit a record 5.92 million from a year ago,. rebounding from declines during the COVID-19 pandemic, and exceeding the 2019 population of 5.7 million. (Photo: Bloomberg)More
By Kevin Varley
(Bloomberg) — Singapore’s population grew 5% to a record 5.92 million at mid-2023 from a year ago, according to a government report, posting its fastest increase since 2008 as the city-state attracted more foreign workers.

Scroll to continue with content​

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The number of non-residents in the city-state jumped 13.1% to 1.768 million as of June from a year earlier, while the resident population grew 1.9%, according to estimates from the National Population and Talent Division released Friday. The population had risen 5.5% in mid-2008, based on data from the Singapore Department of Statistics.
The latest data marks a second straight year of gains after back-to-back population declines in 2020 and 2021 when COVID-related border restrictions barred foreign workers and students from entering the city-state. Around the same time, the government tightened its policy on employment visas as the economy slowed, pushing the count of non-residents to the lowest in a decade.
The mid-year data also showed that Singapore continues to grow older, as the proportion of citizens aged 65 years and above now makes up 19.1% of the total compared with 16.6% a year ago.

 

[ftan42]

caused by FED
QT
repo market
offer higher interest to the bank

 

[Dr Christopher Cheok C S]

Australian dollar (AUD) plunges

Australian dollar forecast: Warning it could drop to as low as 40 cents to USD​

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...r/news-story/41f847277223d5baee83456828979090

 

[Dr Christopher Cheok C S]

corporate bonds crashing due to higher costs of financing

 

[Dr Christopher Cheok C S]

Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown​

(Bloomberg) -- Losses on longer-dated Treasuries are beginning to rival some of the most notorious market meltdowns in US history. Bonds maturing in 10 years or more have slumped 46% since peaking in March 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s just shy of the 49% plunge in US stocks in the aftermath of the dot-com bust at the turn of the century. The rout in 30-year bonds has been even worse, tumbling 53%, nearing the 57% slump in equities during the depths of the financial crisis.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/long-bonds-historic-46-meltdown-203420067.html

 

[Dr Christopher Cheok C S]

People keep talking about the “box” in which profligate countries will someday find themselves, where the tools that used to work no longer do and everything falls apart.

China be in that box. After years of soaring government debt and central bank “financial repression” to make that debt manageable, it now finds itself in the following situation:

The depreciation is happening despite massive unloading of US Treasuries, it hints that the chinese central bank is buying their local debts.

 

[Dr Christopher Cheok C S]

 

[k1976]

No worries, we are in good hands


https://www.channelnewsasia.com/sin...ional-goods-perfume-overseas-holidays-3822431

 

[MaximiLian]

will ze us gahment shutdown 40 days later wif McCarthy gone?

 

[k1976]

will ze us gahment shutdown 40 days later wif McCarthy gone?

Ah Mac has gone liao
H becum the first speaker kena impeached

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.al...arthy-removed-from-role-in-unprecedented-vote

 

[k1976]

Part 2 wayang coming in 40days

 

[k1976]

Wall Street Says a Recession Is Coming. Consumers Say It's Already Here​

Shoppers are getting squeezed and money is disappearing fast

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...recession-2022-businesses-and-workers-say-yes

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Christian Sewing sees a 50% chance of a global recession, a prediction that Citigroup Inc. economists have also made. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says a US recession is a possibility, but not inevitable. Morgan Stanley economists expect a mild euro-area recession at the end of 2022.

That is why u see NODX is keep in negative territory for so long

https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/domestic-exports-of-non-oil-nodx-pctyoy

 

[k1976]

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/08/21/is-the-us-dollar-on-its-way-out/#:~:text=The Bank of International Settlements,are denominated in US dollars.

The US dollar’s role continues to be central to the functioning of the international financial system. The Bank of International Settlements estimates that the US dollar is involved in almost 90 per cent of foreign exchange transactions and accounts for 85 per cent of transactions in spot, forward and swap markets. Half of global trade and three-fourths of Asia-Pacific trade are denominated in US dollars.

The share of the US dollar held as official foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 61.5 per cent in 2012 to 58.4 per cent in 2022, but so has the euro (from 24.1 per cent to 20.5 per cent) and the renminbi share remains under 3 percent. Foreign currency debt denominated in US dollars has remained at about 70 per cent since 2010. The Fed’s Index of International Currency Usage has also remained constant at about 68 per cent.

 

[k1976]

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212x.htm

BIS report for USD Global Trade weightage

The international role of the US dollar (USD) is unrivalled. However, there is at times speculation that its role may be challenged.

The reasons cited include China's growing role in the global economy, developments in technology (eg cryptoassets) or geopolitical considerations. This box provides an updated view of the international role of the USD, focusing mostly on its role in global financial markets.

The global FX market remains concentrated in a few currencies, with the USD dominating. The average turnover per day with the USD on one side of the transaction was $6.6 trillion – up 14% from $5.8 trillion in 2019 – in line with the change in total turnover.

The USD was involved in nearly 90% of global FX transactions, making it the single most traded currency in the FX market (Graph A1).

The dominance of the USD is evident across all FX instruments and counterparties.

At least 85% of trading in the spot, forward and swap markets features the USD in one leg of the transactions.

 

[k1976]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econ...he-us-dollar-post-covid-edition-20230623.html

 

[k1976]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...-behind-acceleration-of-de-dollarization.html

• More and more countries — from Brazil to Southeast Asian nations — are calling for trade to be carried out in other currencies besides the U.S. dollar.
• To be clear, the U.S. dollar remains dominant in global forex reserves even though its share in central banks' foreign exchange reserves has dropped from more than 70% in 1999, IMF data shows.
• Geopolitical risks and economic dynamics have accelerated the trend to move away from the U.S. dollar.