During World War II,
Hitler has all the best Generals for advice on whether to invade Russia.
But Hitler insisted on going ahead to invade Russia.
So what's the out coming ??
Totally wipe out !!
Dear GMS
Ok another series of questions and definitely more legitimate ones. The extent of due diligence done before the deal and the extent to which both GIC and Temasek were aware of the losses on valuation uncertainty on the books of the banks. Something which definitely should be raised and something I can agree on.
Firstly can we agree that they GIC did not definitely take on "risky bet" like or act like hedge funds or are you still sticking to that blanket hyperbole,
Now if we can remove that ridiculous hedge fund assertion out of the way , the question becomes the degree of "risk" undertaken in the deals done by Temasek and GIC and the extent of due dilligence done beforehand.
I believe we are in agreement that SWF's should seek better returns through investments globally in equities. The question currently which should be asked was the extent of due dilligence done before the deal by both GIC, Temasek and Merrill and the amount of protection sought in case of furthur dilution or nationalization.
Again I would state everyone knew of trouble ahead, the only question was the extent of trouble and one's judgement of timing would be based around those evaluations.
Locke
"
down <20% would be quite good
down between 20-25% would be my expectation
down up to 30% would be bad
down 41% is very disappointing
anymore than that and heads should start rolling
Hope this makes for informative reading
cheers
Dear London
Fair enough and thanks for a well written contribution, but I wish you well in convincing my friend that GIC did or acted like a "hedge fund" in making such a risky bet.
I would suggest that you take a look at the Norwegian Pension fund which is a paragon of transparency. As a shareholder of GIC and Temasek and yes its my money and not the Governments money I agree fully that disclosure, debate and discussion is in the order of the day. It will as well hopefully stop some of the more insane "coffeeshop comments" like " GIC is a hedge fund" being bandied around without thought or care.
1. The Norwegians have an absolute limit on the amount of stock it can hold in anyone company. For discussion sake do u think its wise ? Norwegians have it at under 1%, should GIC be limited similarly ? Should we spread our bets over all companies or spread our bets over a few good ones.
2. Risk versus Returns. You have raised a good point about the "possibility" of group think and an inability of like minded alumnus or masters of the universe to conceive of the sky falling around them. Anyway to hire a diversity of opinion ?
3. How much due diligence is done for buying such a large stake. For example the Abu Dubai people and Warren, did they comparatively do more due diligence ?
4. I would still disagree about a risky bet though I personally did not believe the bottom of the market was near at that period, was in cash still in cash, but I do know loads of small investors who believed that the pricing was good historically and the macro picture would not collapse to the extent that it did. For what its worth I do not consider it a risky bet at that moment because the financial reporting of that period was generally more positive. Its more negative and gloom and doom so my belief is they probably overshot on the down side.
Cheers
Locke
"the argument or dispute with GMS is over whether it was a ' Risky Bet." which he characterized as "hedge fund " like :_)) Something I disagree with."
Locke,
I don't regard that investment decison as particularly "hedge fund like" mainly because of the lack of leverage. Here is an example of a "hedge fund like" portfolio:
Total Assets = $125 billion
Investor Base = $4 billion
Leverage = >30 times
I don't think GIC or Temasek fit that description.
However, I have to agree with GMS's "Risky Bet" assertion.
My reasons:
The investment was highly concentrated, which was unusual for GIC's Public Mkts Team (Temasek does make concentrated bets). Warren Buffet (you mentioned him before) is rather fond of concentrated bets. He acknowledges that a high degree of concentration is very risky but manages that risk by imposing a set of very strict criteria ie. the fundamentals are fantastic and the price is cheap!
So, did this particular concentrated bet by GIC, Temasek & other SWFs satisfy such a criteria?
1. At the beginning of 2008, the near (and medium) term fundamentals for a balance sheet distressed US money centre or investment bank was pretty dire to say the least! Even the long term picture was cloudy with the prospect of more regulation, revised capital requirements (ie. more capital needed=less leverage=less profit) and the very real prospect of large bank failures looming. The Swiss and German banks looked in pretty much the same shape.
2. The bank balance sheets were chock full of CDSs etc.. that were nearly impossible to value! You couldn't even mark to mkt because much of that mkt had evaporated. So you used stale prices, marked to model, imposed "going concern" prices, stress tested using "liquidation" prices = hmmm things looked kinda bankrupt! The bal sheet problem was further compounded by counterparty risks ie. the fate of my bal sheet seems to depend on some one else's bal sheet too.
3. The mkt was already talking about the need for Federal capital injections if the big banks started to stress ie. they couldn't raise enough additional investor capital. A govt capital injection = shareholders get screwed big time. GIC and Temasek did note that risk and had some protection built into their investments. So the question is "why the need for protection if the fundamentals were so good????" and if the fundamentals were not so good, WHY INVEST AT ALL????
4. You should have noted that the investments were made very quickly because of the banks' urgent need for new capital. I can't for the life of me see how the GIC and Temasek teams managed to examine the books and reach a CLEAR understanding of their position. Buffet was quoted as saying that the only clear understanding he had of the banks' financials was that he couldn't comprehend them! (or something to that effect)
5. Liquidity was getting tight. Any one making a a concentrated investment in this situation had to acknowledge that there would be no escape routes if you screwed it up.
So can we agree that the fundamentals were crap or at the very least uncertain? So why did the SWFs invest? Here is a collection of views I got from people in the business:
a. They couldn't pass up an opportunity to acquire such a large stake. These banks had been top of the food chain and it had been difficult to acquire large holdings. So people got greedy when the buffet table started to open up.
b. The price was cheap by historical standards so it had to go up when we got back to business as usual right??? But that's only half of the Buffet criteria ie. cheap yes but the fundamentals??? Also, history tends to repeat itself until one day it stops repeating.
c. The guys who worked at GIC, Temasek & other SWFs had extremely close relationships with CITIC, Merrill, UBS etc.. Many of them were also alumni. What I kept hearing was that they had immense confidence in the businesses because they were so intimately acquainted and had the inside track so to speak.
d. CITIC, Merrill, UBS etc. were coming off a decade + of very impressive performance. We now know that a lot of that performance was hot air. So we had a bunch of guys in the SWFs who were still thinking and living in the past.
To summarize:
The SWFs bought concentrated stakes in an increasingly illiquid environment with the prospect (which they acknowledged themselves) of fundamentals getting worse before possibly recovering (and maybe recovering into a new less profitable environment). That looks like a pretty risky bet to me even without applying leverage.
Since we're on the topic, here is what I (as a singaporean and default shareholder) expect from my SWFs:
1. First order : To preserve capital
2. Second order : investment returns
3. I accept losses because they are in the risk taking business afterall. However, the returns should LAG during a BULL mkt (indicating caution) and LEAD during a BEAR mkt (indicating capital preservation).
4. Transparency : we have any at the moment????
5. So what kind of performace do I expect over 2008:
down <20% would be quite good
down between 20-25% would be my expectation
down up to 30% would be bad
down 41% is very disappointing
anymore than that and heads should start rolling
Hope this makes for informative reading
cheers
Dear GMS
If you want preservation of capital then I would suggest holding a 100% bond portfolio QED. If you want growth and returns it means taking on some degree of risk especially with an equity portfolio in any form
Now what exactly do u mean blithely when you just proclaim preservation of capital, equities no equities, or a pure bond portfolio, AAA of all sorts.
Now do SWF funds make such bets ? Yes Abu Dubai and Barclays stands out as one.
This issue though technical is a series one and merits serious discussion not pontificating and politicking from politicians or ex politicians
Is a SWF in equity high risk ? If the Norwegians have a 60% portfolio weightage in equities is that high risk ? Is the very act of being in equities itself high risk ?
Again read london's reply, the amount of risk taken by a SWF in taking a stake is infinitely smaller than the risk underlying a similar hedge fund bet. They are fundamentally different and in no way alike
Was the GIC investment a risky bet ? I would disagree with him and note it as a badly timed investment with a bad read of the macro economics. However there are questions which are relevant and which should be clarified especially with regards to methodology and with timing or evaluation of timing
Can we accept that there will always be a risk of some form with an equity portfolio especially a large one ? How should that risk be mitigated and balanced of with better returns ? Should there be limits on absolute stakes and maximum amounts for investment ?
Locke
Dear Scroobal
I think that is a bit unrealistic in light of the fact that serious investors like Warren are down at least 30, all major indices are down and the Norwegians will broadly follow the market indices
Locke
Are u metally retarded or mentally myopic?Its sinkies like you with their brain in their arses that have driven us to the fucked up situation we are in now!!A well-written piece indeed but be puzzled no more, Ah Meng.
Kuwait, a small but wealthy country like Singapore, had no secret about its wealth in the Arab kingdom. What'd happened? Even fellow Arab countries like Iraq eyed its wealth and could not resist looting the country on certain pretexts.
Even neighbouring ASEAN member like Indonesia couldn't resist "asking" Singapore for about US$10 billion dollars when it was in a desperate state during the currency crisis. Fortunately as member ASEAN it did not extort nor use pretexts like Saddam Hussein. CSJ got into trouble because he couldn't believe that the money did not leave Singapore.
It's good for others to know you have wealth, but it's a different thing to show or tell people you have wealth - or to flaunt it. You are simply inviting temptations and unwanted attention - even the PAP gahment will keep a close eye on you if you are in custody of unusual or excessive wealth. TLH's case comes in mind.
Come things are better left to others to talk about.
If you want preservation of capital then I would suggest holding a 100% bond portfolio QED.
If you want growth and returns it means taking on some degree of risk especially with an equity portfolio in any form
The FUNDAMENTAL POINT is that SWFs are SUPPOSED to PRESERVE the value of the capital that they are being entrusted with!
And the FUNDAMENTAL POINT is NOT about whether the RISK RETURN ratio is comparable but rather SWFs ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO MAKE HIGH RISKY BETS AT ALL!