Football Gambling - Day by Day previews/analysis

[fishcer]

Wolfsburg conceded four goals while leading 2-0 at Bayern over the weekend. Anyway, good luck and hope that BM doesn't park the bus in front of their goalmouth.

Well...that was away from home...and it was Bayern Munich (although this season Bayern is not convincing). Won't compare the squad of Bayern to Monchengladbach. Anyway, Wolfsburg is a much different proposition at home. I expect Monchengladbach to go there looking to defend, but will still go back home with a loss.

Anyway, a couple more picks, but again, quite busy, so not much time for any write-ups :

Going to try to take a risk on Bayer Leverkusen tonight. Playing away to Werder Bremen. Although H2H is overwhelmingly in Bremen's favour, but Bremen has been poor in recent matches. Leverkusen is playing hot attacking football so far, and now is the best time to grab a victory at Bremen. Also, Bremen will be missing quite a number of important starters, with Diego and Pizarro among them. As i say, in view of the H2H, this seems a dangerous bet, but i will take the risk, looking at the missings in both teams and the current form. Leverkusen Level

Another game will be the Spanish Cup. Barcelona playing away to third division Benidorm. Although the handicap is set very high (1.75 or 2), i can see Barcelona clearing the handicap. Squad wise, even though Messi, Iniesta, Xavi, Puyol, Marquez and Valdes are not travelling to the game, the line-up still looks strong enough with the likes of Bojan, Hleb, Eto, Alves, Toure, Sylvinho etc. Do be cautious with the bet amount as it is still a cup game, and domestic cup games in Spain normally do not warrant much attention by the big guns. Just looking at the quality difference, and also the fact that Barcelona is on a high in recent weeks, feel that they will not want to disrupt the momentum that they have going. Barca has won their first round games away from home in the last 3 years of the cup, by 0-3,1-2,1-3. Barca -2

 

[fishcer]

Well HT in the Bundesliga :

Wolfsburg up 1-0 Hope they can maintain and score another for the bet win

Leverkusen 0-0 Been a lousy match...well hope Leverkusen can wake up in the 2nd Half :p

 

[fishcer]

Wolfsburg 3-0 FT

Leverkusen 2-0 FT

Barcelona 0-0 HT :( Hope that the Catalans can pull off the result...

 

[fishcer]

Barcelona 1-0 FT :( Sigh...

Guess 2/3 is not bad also...still profit made

 

[Himerus]

tonight a few EPL matches should be over 2.5 goals.

Man Utd vs Hull City
Chelsea vs Sunderland
Stoke vs Arsenal

can the Tottenham vs Liverpool also have a high scoreline ???

 

[khunking]

Well done.

Wolfsburg 3-0 FT

Leverkusen 2-0 FT

Barcelona 0-0 HT :( Hope that the Catalans can pull off the result...

 

[The MilkMan]

brothers here,what is your picks for tonight ???

Bolton vs Man City (thinking of go for a Man City's win)
Udinese vs Genoa (can Udinese win ???)

thanks in advance.

 

[silverfox@]

Alamak, how come the last posting in this thread is in November 2008. Have the people here all stopped betting?:o

 

[BlueCat]

all waiting for your pick and analysis lor.
maybe they post at other forums and too busy to come here and post.

 

[silverfox@]

I have no picks nor analysis of matches. I check back on past statistics and place a bet amount on that team to have a goal line which is UNDER.
I do not split hairs thinking who will win or even support any team, because gambling is about supporting winning money not supporting any team

I am not sure how many of you play the same way.

Judging from the statistics of season 04/05, 05/06, 06/07, 07/08 and with these stats from the past 4 seasons, bringing them over to this season,

it can be seen that every chelsea, man utd, liverpool away games, take UNDER2.5 goal line. So far till now this season, it has hit a 63% winning rate.

This is just an example for this league, for italian, spanish leagues, I did the same where I take the stats and place bet for that team accordingly. For spanish, its the direct opposite where OVER2.5 is more likely.:p
This is what I posted at the start of the season.


http://www.sammyboy.com/showpost.php?p=31532&postcount=77

oh ok, no problem.

Example, you go sports press and you can find that for EPL, statistically a higher percentage goes to Home Wins, Under, etc.

So if you just concentrate on under. How many games end up in 0 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals, >2 goals?

Then pick a couple of teams. Maybe example Chelsea, Liverpool. Then for every game, you bet them UNDER according to Home game/Away game.

Let's say you bet UNDER for Chelsea away and Liverpool away. If win 2, you win 2 units. if win 1 lose 1, you only lose a bit of comm. if lose 2, you lose 2 units. when you lose 2 units, next away games, you bet under again and you place extra bets. when you win, you go back to your original bet amounts

I don't waste time seeing who vs who, just read their teamsheets for fun. Even if Chelsea vs Stoke, I also bet under. because I don't bet according to what my heart says and i play due to a system. That is why if you play with your heart, will lose money in long run. when you play system, week in, week out, wouldn't lose to bookies.

To leverage, you don't need to bet every team. but if you decided to bet on MU, from now till end of season, every MU game must bet, that means MU is one of the chosen teams.............

 

[jw5]

Alamak, how come the last posting in this thread is in November 2008. Have the people here all stopped betting?:o

No, we are simply waiting for your tips.

 

[silverfox@]

No, we are simply waiting for your tips.

There, the "tip" is bet Chelsea, MU, Liverpool all UNDER 2.5 for their away games from start of season till end of season.

No need to predict, no need to read newspaper on team talk who injured who playing.

 

[Himerus]

thatz also a good practice/way to bet.

 

[silverfox@]

thatz also a good practice/way to bet.

Not many people win from football gambling every season due to the fact that they love to analyse and predict the outcome of the match based on feel. That is what brings the fun to football gambling. But having fun and winning is 2 different matter.

To ensure a steady regular winning, one will have to base on past statistics and bet based on the odds loophole to get an edge. Not by prediction. However, all that I have said, not many will be disciplined enough to follow that through the whole season, because this method though effective, but is very boring.

So football gambling or football investment, one will have to take his pick.

 

[oli9]

Not many people win from football gambling every season due to the fact that they love to analyse and predict the outcome of the match based on feel. That is what brings the fun to football gambling. But having fun and winning is 2 different matter.

To ensure a steady regular winning, one will have to base on past statistics and bet based on the odds loophole to get an edge. Not by prediction. However, all that I have said, not many will be disciplined enough to follow that through the whole season, because this method though effective, but is very boring.

So football gambling or football investment, one will have to take his pick.

Have to agree on this with you. Football punting is all about looking at odds from time to time & a habit of taking down notes on them. I have devise a program to keep track on odds on games which present much value.
My strategy is based on these PLUS my getting 1st hand info on team sheet. All my punts are on running ball & yes, I love playing UNDERS esp for teams that have trouble scoring eg Fulham, Osasuna etc.
The Dutch league (Jupiler & Ersedivisie)are currently my money spinner as certain teams have a habit of going OVERS 3. This case, no team sheet is needed.
There's A league at 5pm (Melbourne vs Central Coast) The past 4 games resulted in a high OVERS. Im going to put a medium stake on Overs 2.5 & a small -0.25 on Melbourne. (note, melbourne won their last 4 home game while Central was LDLW on their last 4 aways)

 

[oli9]

There's A league at 5pm (Melbourne vs Central Coast) The past 4 games resulted in a high OVERS. Im going to put a medium stake on Overs 2.5 & a small -0.25 on Melbourne. (note, melbourne won their last 4 home game while Central was LDLW on their last 4 aways)

QED. Final score - Melbourne 3 Central Coast 0. My profit was close to $6K as i went OVERS 1.25 during HT.
Been doing this year in year out, and this is my regular job.

Cheers everyone.

 

[fishcer]

Dutch Eredivise :

NAC vs Utrecht - NAC -0.5

Greece Superleague :

Iraklis vs AEK - AEK -0.25, 1 unit on draw

 

[fishcer]

Belgian Jupiler League :

KV Kortrijk vs KSV Roeselare HT 2-0 - Live Bet Kortrijk -0.25 @ score 2-0

 

[jw5]

Not many people win from football gambling every season due to the fact that they love to analyse and predict the outcome of the match based on feel. That is what brings the fun to football gambling. But having fun and winning is 2 different matter.

To ensure a steady regular winning, one will have to base on past statistics and bet based on the odds loophole to get an edge. Not by prediction. However, all that I have said, not many will be disciplined enough to follow that through the whole season, because this method though effective, but is very boring.

So football gambling or football investment, one will have to take his pick.

What's the point of winning if you don't have fun?

 

[silverfox@]

I do not have time to analyse this, but I think if people who are keen to do this, can analyse this and take down the past odds taken by bookmakers.

The Big 4, Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool when playing as the AWAY team, their draw and lose odds is actually very high. So that means to say taking them to draw or lose, gets high payouts. Easily can reach $3-4+ for Draw and $7-8 for Lose. And the Big 4 do hit these odds easier than when they play as the home team.

If based on odds and money management leveraged on these Big 4, (cannot just take 1 team, must take a few teams and combine play), should be able to project a good percentage of 10-15%(est) profit in a season.