Football Gambling - Day by Day previews/analysis

[fishcer]

Well, results are in...

Roma 1 - 1 Napoli

Napoli +0.75 Win Over 2.75 lost :(

Atalanta 1 - 0 Siena

Atalanta -0.25 Win

Chelsea 1 - 1 Spurs

Chelsea -1.25 Lost

A mixed day, with a little cash lost on commission. The EPL has again caused me to lose, credit to Spurs for the point earned. I think i shall leave the EPL alone, never been a good hunting ground for me.

Napoli snatching a draw after being down to 10 men, well done.

 

[fishcer]

Well, another late pick for the night.

Jupiler (Belgium) League :

Roeselare vs Standard Liege

After the heart breaking 1-0 ET loss to Liverpool in the Champions League Qualifiers, where Liege looked the better team over both legs, its back to business in the league for them.

Standard has been in good form in the league, with 2 wins out of 2, scoring 6 conceding 1. They also won the Belgium Supercup with a resounding 3-1 win over rivals Anderlecht. Squad wise, no important missings, and in case of worries over fatigue since they played ET, Liege has a big squad which is packed with quality. The only worry i have is that they may be affected mentally, but still i reckon their quality will shine through.

Roeselare basically changed a huge chunk of their squad after last season, with many of the players coming in from the lower divisions. Much of the players who left were important, and so far in the season, they have not started well, with only 1 pt from 2 games. Defensively they are weak, and with soo many new players coming in, they will probably need some time to gel, but even then, i suspect they will be in for a tough ride this season, as the quality of players they have is really not impressive.

All in all, a win for Standard is the most probable result i see here.

Standard -1.25 L845

 

[Adidas]

fishcer,

you are damn good.
3 out of 4

 

[fishcer]

fishcer,

you are damn good.
3 out of 4

???

Eh bro, it should be 2 out of 4, not 3 out of 4. Thanks for trying to give me credit though

 

[fishcer]

Standard 1 - 1 :(

Not a good night overall, and also for quite a few punters, with a number of big name teams failing to record good results.

Well, as long as bet within the means, we can always live to fight another day! Hope i can get back the losses.

 

[silverfox@]

Standard 1 - 1 :(

Not a good night overall, and also for quite a few punters, with a number of big name teams failing to record good results.

Well, as long as bet within the means, we can always live to fight another day! Hope i can get back the losses.

Actually I don't like to look at who give ball, who over, who under. By looking at statistics over the past seasons, for home away games, will realise that there is certain percentage more favourable.

Example over/under. So just pick that few teams, every week bet UNDER. End of season, sure win money. The only problem is it defeats the purpose of analysing football.

But most people love the fun and yet lose money. So bring away the fun and can win. So which is the better alternative?

Last season, I did a test on EPL games and buy selective teams on UNDER based on past results. Let's say bet 4 games, if win 3 lose 1, total win 2. if win 2 lose 2, lose a bit commission. If win 1 lose 4, lose 3. If lose, the following week, I increase bet. Sure can fightback. When fought back, just reduce to normal bet again.

That is why I don't see who put who in what kind of teamsheet. I just buy base on statistic play. Even if Arsenal is favoured to pump in 5 goals, I still buy UNDER. Even if Chelsea is favoured to win 2-1, I still buy UNDER. Mentality of punters love to buy OVER. So statistics is a true reflection of how the market moves the results. :p

 

[hot_lips]

lost big time with chelsea :(

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

Oh dear you win some lose some, I lost on Sunderland v Man City. EPL seems to be throwing up strange twists every week. However if anyone had the guts to go for an A-A bet on the above game, Pools actually paid out $100

 

[Nomad]

me tonight manages to recoup some back from S-League,Home vs Dalian.
i also lost a bit on Sunderland vs Man City

 

[tenggiri]

Well, as long as bet within the means, we can always live to fight another day! Hope i can get back the losses.

No worries bro fishcer, i am sure u ll get it back.
Btw, i think that playing the asian handicap is more favourable to us punters than playing the 1X2, hf/ft, exact score etc offered by sporepools and other bookies.

I ve been playing the AH since donkey years already and its been ok for me. Its like a hobby of course, not something one can hope to make real money from hehe.

So cheers and happy disciplined punting one and all ok?

 

[The MilkMan]

No worries bro fishcer, i am sure u ll get it back.
So cheers and happy disciplined punting one and all ok?

bro tenggiri,
ta ke,this is a sound and good advice.
always bet within our means and limits.

 

[alvin36]

me tonight manages to recoup some back from S-League,Home vs Dalian.
i also lost a bit on Sunderland vs Man City

I was at this game ... and I almost vomit when i see how DALIAN play.... damn fucking jialat.... cannot pass the ball, and the worst is.. they dont even bother to attach when they are down 2-0. I really dont understand why FAS invite this kind of team. In fact, they are worst than SengKang !!
They keep saying the better players will be sent back to China Super league, then how can this foreign team help to improve our "shit league" ?

To the FAS management.. pls wake up !!

Next ... back to this Home-Dalian game.. I can only recall seeing DALIAN took ONE shot in the entire game !! And it was off target !! Lionel Lewis did not even make a save in the whole game, I i believe he touch the ball less than 5 times in 90 minutes ... is really a incredible game.

Many people when to see the "shit league" because they bet, and not because they support any team. I'm one of them too

No matter how lousy is the game.. it is still quite thrilling when you bet and watch at the same time...

KNN.. for this game.. in fact, i bought D-H and 2-0 and 3-1... fuck.. all missed by a nose

 

[SIFU]

s-league many kelong one lah..

better stay clear..

 

[tenggiri]

s-league many kelong one lah..

better stay clear..

Yeah, many games look so suspicious. Got one shit league game two years ago (forgot btwn who liao) the AOS odds last minute dropped from $40+ to $15! And the FT score was 9-3 or something like that. This one confirm kelong and true.

EPL also got kelong i believe. Case in point being the just concluded game btwn Chel and Spurs which ended 1-1. Chel were heavily favored to win easily but did you all see the lethargic way Che were playing and the wayward shooting? The nature of the equaliser by Spurs also very suspicious. It was a careless backpass by a Che defender!

 

[silverfox@]

Yeah, many games look so suspicious. Got one shit league game two years ago (forgot btwn who liao) the AOS odds last minute dropped from $40+ to $15! And the FT score was 9-3 or something like that. This one confirm kelong and true.

EPL also got kelong i believe. Case in point being the just concluded game btwn Chel and Spurs which ended 1-1. Chel were heavily favored to win easily but did you all see the lethargic way Che were playing and the wayward shooting? The nature of the equaliser by Spurs also very suspicious. It was a careless backpass by a Che defender!

actually any sports that involves money and can be seen on sportbook betting is virtually 'dirty'. Dirty got dirty way to bet. Just that the majority of people love to analyse and predict score. This kind of betting is fun but long run lose money. So unless one is willing to take away the fun, only then will you see money.

If you go to sports press, they have statistics of leagues and you will see that certain leagues have higher percentages in certain areas. My advise will be to focus on only those certain teams. Example EPL got 20 teams. No need to bet 10 matches a week, but only focus on that 1-2 teams or even 4 teams if you are comfortable. Then just bet on what they are statistically higher on. End of season sure make money. If this week lose 20, next week, bet 30 on the same team with the stats. you wouldn't lose heavy, instead you will see results. After betting for years, we can't win them, but only base on statistics can we bet just like a machine and win the bookies:p

When you bet lesser teams, lesser matches, the losing part will be lesser. Lose 1 game, need to win 2, in order to win 1 unit.
So losing less, is the key to winning

 

[tenggiri]

If you go to sports press, they have statistics of leagues and you will see that certain leagues have higher percentages in certain areas. My advise will be to focus on only those certain teams. Example EPL got 20 teams. No need to bet 10 matches a week, but only focus on that 1-2 teams or even 4 teams if you are comfortable. Then just bet on what they are statistically higher on. End of season sure make money. If this w

Interesting bro. I am curious. do you mind explain a bit more in detail yr system? If you prefer not to, i will also understand. Cheers.

 

[silverfox@]

Interesting bro. I am curious. do you mind explain a bit more in detail yr system? If you prefer not to, i will also understand. Cheers.

oh ok, no problem.

Example, you go sports press and you can find that for EPL, statistically a higher percentage goes to Home Wins, Under, etc.

So if you just concentrate on under. How many games end up in 0 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals, >2 goals?

Then pick a couple of teams. Maybe example Chelsea, Liverpool. Then for every game, you bet them UNDER according to Home game/Away game.

Let's say you bet UNDER for Chelsea away and Liverpool away. If win 2, you win 2 units. if win 1 lose 1, you only lose a bit of comm. if lose 2, you lose 2 units. when you lose 2 units, next away games, you bet under again and you place extra bets. when you win, you go back to your original bet amounts

I don't waste time seeing who vs who, just read their teamsheets for fun. Even if Chelsea vs Stoke, I also bet under. because I don't bet according to what my heart says and i play due to a system. That is why if you play with your heart, will lose money in long run. when you play system, week in, week out, wouldn't lose to bookies.

To leverage, you don't need to bet every team. but if you decided to bet on MU, from now till end of season, every MU game must bet, that means MU is one of the chosen teams.

And can apply the same tactic to EPL, SPL, GBL, ISA or other misc league.

you will be surprised many of those games you expect them to come with many goals, always appear under.:p

last season i already tried out, i tried out quite small at $25 a game, still can win couple of hundreds end of season. if bet increase, wins will increase. but since try out, just play small small, no harm too

 

[alvin36]

s-league many kelong one lah..

better stay clear..

I have seen so many times that SUPER REDS players betting at Singapore Pools !! There was once I purposely see what they bet, but frankly , I never see them betting S League, in fact, they buying K league and other games. I saw one player, I think is the defender, No 5, he bet $500 on one game.

My point is.... they may not bet on S League , if they bet S league, it is an offence.... but... the question now is... will they be tempted one day ??

If they see the other team is $6 and their own team is $1.30, will they be tempted one day to kelong ??

Those who stay near Yishun St81, you can try to see these koreans at NTUC Singapore Pools on weekends.. and I have seen them many times, and they were at the outlet for a long time

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

Yes good advice, that is why I NEVER bet on a Reds game.

, I also bet under. because I don't bet according to what my heart says and i play due to a system. That is why if you play with your heart, will lose money in long run. when you play system, week in, week out, wouldn't lose to bookies.

 

[BlueCat]

for me i dun bet when my favourite team is involved,only when they reached Q-F or S-F,then i bet.
cos a lot of times,those club's supporters bet with their heart,in long term sure to lose money.
nowaday,in a matchday,i limit myself to bet oni on 2 matches maximum and a token amount between $5-$50,not more than $50 for 2 matches.
this will make watching the matches more thrilling and exciting.

remember always bet within your means and limits and bet with your big head,not heart or small head.