First WP GRC - Aljunied?

[aurvandil]

aljunied GRC is probably the biggest headache for them right now, cos whichever way they slice & dice it, the neighboring GRCs will be greatly affected, due to the previous GE results.

Actually if you are expecting the popular support to drop below 60%, the logical thing would be sacrifice Aljunied. You then focus on safeguarding the surrounding GRCs. If you spread it too thinly and there is a miscalculation, high chance to lose 2 GRCs instead of just 1.

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

Rough rule of thumb

Above 60%: Maintain current domination.
55% to 60%: Lost 1 to 2 GRCs.
50% to 55%: Loss of 2/3 majority.
Less than 50%: PAP fall from power.

These numbers are based on recent analysis of the Malaysian polls. UMNO support was between 50% to 55%

Hard to argue against that. But seriously, even losing 2 GRCs but yet maintaining power, the PAPies will not change their ways. You can expect more dastardly acts from them on the political front. The PAPies are an immoral lot as far as politics is concerned. If they retain power at the expense of 2 GRCs, I expect them bring in even more FTs to get more votes from these new citizens.

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

Actually if you are expecting the popular support to drop below 60%, the logical thing would be sacrifice Aljunied. You then focus on safeguarding the surrounding GRCs. If you spread it too thinly and there is a miscalculation, high chance to lose 2 GRCs instead of just 1.

I don't expect the PAPies to sacrifice any candidate. They are a fascist lot. The fact that there are two opposition members in parliament is already going against their grain. Even they have acknowledged that one party rule is their way of being. They have tried almost every dirty trick in the book to pry Hougang and PP from the APs.

 

[Sideswipe]

Rough rule of thumb

Above 60%: Maintain current domination.
55% to 60%: Lost 1 to 2 GRCs.
50% to 55%: Loss of 2/3 majority.
Less than 50%: PAP fall from power.

These numbers are based on recent analysis of the Malaysian polls. UMNO support was between 50% to 55%

correct me if wrong

Above 60%: Maintain current domination.
50 to 60%: 70-75% parliament
40 to 50%: parliament majority
Less than 40%: lose parliament majority.

base that on other countries parliamentary results ( UK, Taiwan, Japan )
PAP won 47% votes and 70% seats in 1963 GE.
our elections has one key factor different from most countries - compulsory voting which don't know is advantage to PAP or oppositions?

 

[aurvandil]

correct me if wrong

Above 60%: Maintain current domination.
50 to 60%: 70-75% parliament
40 to 50%: parliament majority
Less than 40%: lose parliament majority.

base that on other countries parliamentary results ( UK, Taiwan, Japan )
PAP won 47% votes and 70% seats in 1963 GE.
our elections has one key factor different from most countries - compulsory voting which don't know is advantage to PAP or oppositions?

This is only possible if you have independents and 3 corner fights. The previous numbers are based on the assumption our Opposition can at least co-operate enough so that there are straight fights only.

Interesting part about Malaysian elections is that there were independent spoilers. They however gathered so little of the vote so as to be almost non-existent.

Fortunately in Singapore's context, the sky high election deposits make independent spoliers highly unlikely.

 

[manokie]

I don't expect the PAPies to sacrifice any candidate. They are a fascist lot. The fact that there are two opposition members in parliament is already going against their grain. Even they have acknowledged that one party rule is their way of being. They have tried almost every dirty trick in the book to pry Hougang and PP from the APs.

PAP have 5 problems..

Bishan
Tampines
Hougang
Potong Pasir
AMK

BTW where is reform party going to compete in?

 

[wahlaneh]

If Sylvia can topple Georgie, it will mark a new chapter in Sinkie history.

Do you think she can do it?
:o

How is the ground sentiment? Is Georgie making his rounds?

wahlaneh...
if silver lim got another leg in PAP how?

 

[manokie]

wahlaneh...
if silver lim got another leg in PAP how?

If Sylvia Lim wins Aljunied, there will be 5 WP MPs in total..

And if Aljunied is won, there will be an another NCMP slot for GMS maybe?

 

[metalrover]

PAP have 5 problems..

Bishan
Tampines
Hougang
Potong Pasir
AMK

BTW where is reform party going to compete in?

So far, what i heard of is :
RP - West Coast GRC, Hong Kah GRC
NSP - Tampines GRC, Jalan Besar GRC, Jurong GRC
SDA - Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC
WP - Aljunied GRC, East Coast GRC
SDP - Bukit Panjang SMC
plus the present 2 SMCs held by opposition, and probably the rest of the single seats.

Walkovers - Tanjong Pagar, Marine Parade, Ang Mo Kio, Holland-Bukit Timah, Sembawang

 

[Perspective]

So far, what i heard of is :
RP - West Coast GRC, Hong Kah GRC
NSP - Tampines GRC, Jalan Besar GRC, Jurong GRC
SDA - Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC
WP - Aljunied GRC, East Coast GRC
SDP - Bukit Panjang SMC
plus the present 2 SMCs held by opposition, and probably the rest of the single seats.

Walkovers - Tanjong Pagar, Marine Parade, Ang Mo Kio, Holland-Bukit Timah, Sembawang

Methink SDP should have enough numbers to go for a GRC. Most likely Holland-Bukit Timah. That leaves 4 GRCs uncontested.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

And if Aljunied is won, there will be an another NCMP slot for GMS maybe?

I have to state my position again, I am not interested in NCMP at all.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Robert Half]

We have been discussing about GRCs. In coming election, there should be 9 to 12 single seats available.

Opp parties should have better chances in winning SMCs.

 

[Sideswipe]

We have been discussing about GRCs. In coming election, there should be 9 to 12 single seats available.

Opp parties should have better chances in winning SMCs.

yes, next GE we have 12 SMC and 4 men GRC ( new GRC created? ), electoral boundaries will see big changes.

 

[manokie]

I have to state my position again, I am not interested in NCMP at all.

Goh Meng Seng

So what you will do when you lose Tamp GRC?

 

[Robert Half]

yes, next GE we have 12 SMC and 4 men GRC ( new GRC created? ), electoral boundaries will see big changes.

Is it publish out ? Any websites can I see this

 

[rodent2005]

assign george to where his talent is foreign affairs -naturally go to grc with the most FT.

But George Yeo angered the Chinese leh. If the GRC got many PRC immigrants, then George sure lose because the loyalty and allegiance of these new immigrants still lie with their original motherland.

 

[Queen Seok Duk]

So what you will do when you lose Tamp GRC?

He will take the NCMP post for sure. He supported NCMP scheme as he said he needed exposure in Parliament.

 

[Robert Half]

He will take the NCMP post for sure. He supported NCMP scheme as he said he needed exposure in Parliament.

I think NCMP is still a good post despite its monthly allowance is less than $2k.

NCMP get to talk inside the Parliament for one term

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

So what you will do when you lose Tamp GRC?

At this moment, losing Tamp GRC is not within my consideration. I am more concerned about what if we win Tamp GRC?

Goh Meng Seng

 

[manokie]

At this moment, losing Tamp GRC is not within my consideration. I am more concerned about what if we win Tamp GRC?

Goh Meng Seng

Haha

You are being overweening.

Even SDA won just 30+% of votes and they worked the grounds for years.. Why should you win?