RM at historical low against SGD
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit slumped to its historical low against the Singapore dollar to close at 2.6214 yesterday, declining further from last Friday’s close of 2.6066. Experts are speculating that the local currency will continue to weaken for at least another two to three months before recovering.
It has been reported that the ringgit’s decline has created a rush for it, with money changers in Johor recently seeing a surge in demand from Singapore visitors ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday period.
At 5pm, the ringgit had depreciated 0.03% to close at 3.3468 against the greenback. It briefly touched 3.3485 in the early trade, which was the lowest level since May 26, 2010. The ringgit traded lower against the euro to close at 4.5844 from 4.5004 last Friday, but appreciated against the yen to 3.2661 from 3.2578 last week.
The fall of the ringgit comes amid the overall decline in regional bourses ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today and tomorrow, which is expected to further deliberate on the quantitative easing (QE) tapering schedule, said currency traders.
In a nutshell, the prospect of further cuts in US stimulus has affected sentiment for emerging market assets.
Ambank Group currency strategist Wong Chee Seng told The Edge Financial Daily the weakening of the ringgit is likely to continue for the next two to three months.
“The ringgit is subject to a combination of factors, such as the strengthening of the Singapore dollar and the selling pressure in the emerging markets,” he said, noting that Singapore’s strong policies have also made it harder for the ringgit to bounce back.
In a report yesterday, MIDF Research said foreign funds have sold a net RM1.26 billion worth of Malaysian stocks on the open market (excluding off-market transactions) last week.
“That was the highest since the week ended Nov 15, 2013. It was also the sixth week since August 2011 that the amount of outflow exceeded RM1 billion,” it wrote, adding that so far in 2014, a total of RM2.8 billion has exited Malaysian equities.
In the last 16 weeks, meanwhile, RM8.48 billion in foreign money has exited Malaysian equities, or an average of RM530 million a week, MIDF said.
Southeast Asia’s largest lender DBS Group Holdings Ltd senior currency economist Philip Wee told The Edge Financial Daily that the ringgit is currently trading at the levels of the 1997 and 1998 Asian financial crisis.
“The impact on the ringgit is not surprising as the currency has been declining [against the Singapore dollar] since 2002,” he said.
Ahead of the long holiday break, M&A Securities Sdn Bhd Rosnani Rasul in a note yesterday said this week is predicted to be filled with cautious sentiment.
“First of all, it will be a shorter trading week in conjunction with the Chinese New Year celebration. Bursa Malaysia will be operating on 3.5 days instead of the usual 5-day week swing,” she said.
She also noted that US Federal Reserve will be issuing its policy rates decision along with its tapering timeline on Thursday, which will single-handedly stoke trading fear among investors as acceleration in tapering would mean further profit taking and withdrawal from emerging markets.
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on January 28, 2014.