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[COVID-19 Virus] The Sinkies are fucked Thread.

Interesting article...

800 deaths a year — and life carries on normally​

August 31st, 2021|Articles, Stories
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Caption for photo
Every year, new mutations of a higly transmissible infectious disease come through Singapore and kill some 800 persons annually — that’s the higher range of estimates by public health experts. The disease is easily spread through close contact and droplets. It is so endemic, it is hard to even estimate how many get it but with such mild symptoms (for the great majority) many do not even bother to see a doctor.
We’re talking about influenza, or the “flu”.
A scientific paper from 2006, “Influenza-associated Deaths in Tropical Singapore” by Angela Chow, Stefan Ma, Ai Ee Ling and Suok Kai Chew (but based on a study that spanned eight years) found that influenza-associated mortality in Singapore occured at a rate of about 14.8 deaths per 100,000 population. This was similar to the rate in Hong Kong, which was found to be 16.4 per 100,000.
Multiplied by our current population, this suggests an annual total of about 844 deaths a year in Singapore.
Influenza kills more elderly people than younger persons. Among patients over 65 years old, the mortality rate was 167.8 persons per 100,000.
The Singapore Ministry of Health’s HealthHub site has a webpage (accessed 31 August 2021) that, however, gives a lower annual figure. It says “An earlier study had estimated that influenza caused 588 deaths in Singapore annually”. It’s not clear which earlier study this refers to.
The same HealthHub page also says that “In Singapore, influenza-associated hospitalisation has been estimated to be 29.6 per 100,000 persons each year, or about 1,500 hospitalisations per year.” That works out to be about 125 hospitalisations a month.
A total of 588 – 844 influenza-associated fatalities a year (depending on which source one prefers to use) suggests that those patients who had to be hospitalised were generally very ill indeed. About half the 1,500 hospitalisations a year don’t make it out of the hospital alive.
See also “Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations, Singapore, 2004–2008 and 2010–2012″ by Ang Li Wei and others, and a feature in TODAY newspaper dated 16 August 2017: “When flu turns fatal“. There is also a feature in the Straits Times from 19 April 2020 recounting the flu crises that have hit SIngapore in decades past: “Three times that the world coughed, and Singapore caught the bug“.
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As at 27 August 2021, Singapore has recorded 55 deaths from Covid-19 (source). This total covers a period of 17 months since the first fatality in late March 2020.
As at 30 August 2021, “441 cases [were] currently warded in hospital,” reported the Ministry of Health in its daily press release. Most were well and merely under observation, the ministry said. “There are currently 19 cases of serious illness requiring oxygen supplementation, and 5 in critical condition in the intensive care unit (ICU).”
The 19 serious cases of Covid-19 currently in hospital is a far cry from the approximately 125 influenza hospitalisations a month (1,500 flu hospitalisations a year divided by 12), which also seem to be very serious indeed as explained above.
The 55 Covid-19 deaths so far almost pale in comparison with the roughly 800 flu-associated deaths a year.
And yet, the Ministry of Manpower uses Covid-19 as justification for the continued internment of migrant workers in their dormitories, sixteen months after the lockdown began.
How rational is this?
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“… with more than nine in 10 dorm residents now fully vaccinated against Covid-19, infectious disease experts say it is hard to justify the restrictions, especially given the impact on mental health,” reported the Straits Times on 29 August 2021 (link).
Associate Professor Alex Cook, vice-dean of research at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, said the public health justification for the continued restrictions is to stop infections from the community entering dorms, and prevent dorm infections from getting back out.
But unlike last year, there are now more infections being detected in the community than in the dorms.
“Given that the public health benefits are marginal at best… we should seriously consider relaxing these restrictions as we relax measures in the community,” he said.
— 29 August 2021, Straits Times, Plan to let migrant workers into community still on hold after new Covid-19 clusters in dorms over past month (link).
Another public health expert, Jeremy Lim, set out the arguments even more cogently to the website Mothership. In his mind, it came down to the point where “I don’t think it’s the sensible or the prudent public health thing to do anymore,” Mothership quoted him as saying in the article “S’pore public health expert explains why migrant workers should be allowed back into the community”, 28 August 2021. This article is certainly worth a read.
Jeremy Lim is the director of global health at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore, the chairman of the Medical Services Committee of HealthServe, a local NGO that offers medical and social assistance to migrant workers.
Indeed, if despite its worse numbers than Covid-19, we could live normally with influenza in years past, why are we still locking up migrant workers?
 
It is very tough in the private sector now but I fear that the double whammy; stock market selldown till end of this year due to Softbank and Evergrande.

If we can reduce the civil service expenses, more money can be channel to help the man on the street to ride though this crisis.
 
There are infected who visited hospital wards in September and vice versa. We are trying to confirm if clusters developed in hospital wards. Schools don't tell parents that even teachers are infected in Sept. So far they only announce HBL and hospital visit bans for next week.

But we hit a new historical high last night.
Nikkei up 500pts this morning, while STI is in red.
So, will these hint that more restrictions be announced this weekend?, eg dining pax be reduced to 2 again?
 
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still 98% not actually sick.
no worries


Figure 1: Number of Active Cases in ICU or Requiring Oxygen Supplementation1
Fig1_23Sep


Over the last 28 days, the percentage of local cases who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms is 97.9%.

289 cases required oxygen supplementation and 29 had been in the ICU.

Of these, 53.8% were fully vaccinated and 46.2% were unvaccinated/ partially vaccinated.

13 have died, of whom 23.1% were fully vaccinated and 76.9% were unvaccinated/ partially vaccinated.

Figure 2: Local Cases in the Last 28 Days by Severity of Condition2
Fig2_23Sep
Figure 3: Deaths and Active Cases in ICU, Requiring Oxygen Supplementation or Hospitalised1, by Age Groups
Fig3_23Sep
My prediction is that infection numbers would peak 2-3K over the next few weeks and then go down sharply. People are hardly going out now because of the fear of being served with the MOH notice and this will culminate in the sharp downward trend to be reflected end of next month. The 2-3K we are seeing now is the result of the initial relaxed restrictions a few weeks back.

Things will be back to pre-COVID times end of 2021 or beginning 2022. I am in agreement with Dame Sarah Gilbert. No other variant will likely exist because of the increasingly high global vaccination rate, rendering the virus nowhere to go. We are going to see the light at the end of the tunnel soon. That doesn't mean COVID will disappear though. We still need vaccine protection and observe sensible precautions.
 
SINGAPORE: Singapore reported 1,504 new COVID-19 cases as of noon on Thursday (Sep 23), the highest since the pandemic began early last year.

The 1,491 local infections comprise 1,218 community cases and 273 dormitory residents. There were also 13 imported cases.
The Ministry of Health (MOH) announced two more fatalities, taking the national death toll to 70.

The first was a 93-year-old Singaporean woman who died on Thursday. She tested positive for COVID-19 on Sep 17 and had not been vaccinated against the disease, said MOH.

She also had a history of heart failure, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia.

The second fatality, a 71-year-old Singaporean woman, tested positive for the disease on Thursday and died on the same day. She was unvaccinated and had a history of cancer.
 

COVID-19: Dining-in group size limit at regular F&B outlets down to 2; social gatherings reduced​

 COVID-19: Dining-in group size limit at regular F&B outlets down to 2; social gatherings reduced
People walking in pairs in Holland Village on Aug 10, 2021, as dining-in at food and beverage outlets resumes for those who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. (Photo: Jeremy Long)
24 Sep 2021 06:31PM (Updated: 24 Sep 2021 06:38PM)
SINGAPORE: The group size limit for dining-in at regular food and beverage (F&B) outlets will be reduced to two vaccinated people from Monday (Sep 27), while the cap on social gatherings will also be reduced, the Ministry of Health (MOH) announced on Friday.
This comes amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in Singapore in recent weeks.
The new restrictions will last from Sep 27 to Oct 24, and MOH will review the measures two weeks after implementation and adjust these measures based on the community situation then.
"We do not need to return to a heightened alert. But we have to do more to scale back social interactions further in order to slow down community transmissions and allow for better stability," said MOH.

DINE-IN AT F&B OUTLETS​

Groups of up to two people will be allowed to dine-in at regular F&B outlets if all diners are fully vaccinated. This is down from the current limit of five.
Unvaccinated individuals with a valid negative pre-event test result, recovered people, and children aged 12 and below may be included in the group of two at F&B outlets, MOH said.
F&B establishments that are not able to ensure that all dine-in patrons meet the criteria for full vaccination may only operate takeaway and delivery services, MOH said.
The rules for dining-in at hawker centres and coffee shops remain unchanged.
“Because hawker centres and coffee shops offer essential food services to the community, the concession to dine-in at these premises will remain at up to two persons, regardless of vaccination status,” the Health Ministry said.
Entertainment such as live performances, recorded music, and videos or television screening at F&B outlets will continue to be prohibited, MOH said.
"Patrons to F&B establishments are also reminded to adhere to all safe management measures and keep their masks on at all times except when eating or drinking," the ministry added.


Rapidly rising COVID-19 cases putting 'serious strain' on hospitals, action needed: Task force


Work-from-home to be default from Monday as COVID-19 workplace measures tightened


Home-based learning period for primary schools extended to Oct 7

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SOCIAL GATHERINGS REDUCED​

The permitted group size for social gatherings will also be reduced from a maximum of five people to two people.
The maximum number of unique visitors per household will also be reduced to two per day, down from five. The cap on visitors does not apply to grandchildren being cared for by grandparents.
“Individuals should continue to limit their overall number of social gatherings to not more than one per day, whether to another household, or meeting with friends and family members in a public place,” MOH said.
"We strongly encourage all individuals to reduce social activities and wear our masks diligently.
“In particular, the elderly and persons with co-morbidities who are more vulnerable to severe illnesses, should stay home as much as possible, except for essential activities such as working, buying food and groceries, seeing the doctor, and exercising individually in uncrowded locations."
MOH warned that if the infection continues at its current trajectory, Singapore can expect to "reach a daily count of about 3,200 in the next week". It has not ruled out cases "doubling further".
"To minimise the strain on our overall healthcare capacity, we will have to tighten measures before that happens," the ministry said.

 
pap.chicken out liao
revert to 2 means no vax.differentiation ?
Ong YK will tell us to 稳住阵脚。

His trajectory projectiom of around 3K peak is based on a 3 week cycle then, it’s like a game of who blink first loses.

Their projection of hitting 3K daily cases in the first 10 days of October is actually quite spot on: the only question is whether it rises thereafter or tapers off.

With this mini-HA phase coming into effect on Monday, they will drive the numbers down some two weeks down the road.

@SOS Your info on this round of restriction is spot on! :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
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