Casino gambling fall in here!!!

[silverfox@]

Casino Edge
Because of the payout, there are people who loved betting on Player bets instead as it has a full payout of 1:1 and no commission needed. However, perspective to mathematical calculation,
Player bets win about 49.32% of the time while
Banker bets win 50.68%.

With respect to this percentage difference, it would appear that Banker bets are more worthwhile in betting, but then again the commission part reduces this edge which the Banker has.

The figures I would not like to repeat here again as they are available in many other websites and articles on Baccarat. But in later parts of my blog, I will explain more in detail why one will increase his risk in losing by placing bets on Player, Banker, Tie, as and when their feel come.

Remember, I am not here to share how to gamble, but I am here to share how to invest smartly on casino play based on statistics and calculations.

 

[rofthelper]

Just an update on my nauseous trip to LW on tuesday.

Took the 1st ferry, first time I have experienced dizziness from ferry to nongsa, nongsa to big ship, and even the big ship also shake like a "不倒翁". :(

Change $500 rolling chip, to get back $45 + food voucher. Looking for a $40 baccarat table, I tried the "banker strategy", $80 per bet, open BBB. Quite happi with the shoe, but suddenly somehow I don't know why I switched to bet on player, end up lose all my winnings and eat into my bankroll. (My frd standing beside me, keep shaking his head....) Serve me right!!!

Switch from table to table, from $40 table to $100 table to the $20 table, quite surprisingly the shoes all sibeh swee..... either 6 or 7 Banker streaks or Player streaks. But I wager 2-3 times and leave the table. I think I still can't maintain a fix tactics.

In the end, I chose a $40 table, and place my last few bets. This time round, I don't care liao and bet player thru' out. In the end, opened PPPPPTPPB. I stopped on the 8th bet, and won $940. (I cut the player dragon on the 7th and 8th bet, if not I can win more.... Serve me right!!! 2x!!!)

Took the 1230pm ferry back, that stupid Gambia 3 boat nearly capsized manz... the wave was too strong. 2 PRCs nearly thrown off to the sea while standing outside. Luckily somemore held them back.

 

[volcanolee]

ya... damn big wave yesterday.. i went to LJ take 1030am ferry and boat rocking like hell.. lucky didnt vomit all my breakfast...

 

[RoyalFlush]

went LJ yesterday not bad nice food played afew hand in bacarat manage to win few hundred. then saw a grp playing texas holdem thought of trying out fun with 100bucks manage to fight to ard 1k but got greedy couldve leave the table but lose it all in a all in showdown imagine my 9 full house lose a 10 fullhouse... but was fun
anyone else tried the game yet?

 

[silverfox@]

went LJ yesterday not bad nice food played afew hand in bacarat manage to win few hundred. then saw a grp playing texas holdem thought of trying out fun with 100bucks manage to fight to ard 1k but got greedy couldve leave the table but lose it all in a all in showdown imagine my 9 full house lose a 10 fullhouse... but was fun
anyone else tried the game yet?

Depends on how you look at. To win a small amount consistently or win 1 time big and then stop. The former is easier to accomplish. That is why without a strategy in place and timeframe, the house edge will eat up most gamblers' winnings

 

[RoyalFlush]

Depends on how you look at. To win a small amount consistently or win 1 time big and then stop. The former is easier to accomplish. That is why without a strategy in place and timeframe, the house edge will eat up most gamblers' winnings

didnt lose to the house lose to other players =(

 

[0939]

I was at LJ also, One baccarat caught my attention. Everybody there was making so much noise, When I was there, everybody was betting Player, It was 4th in a row, the lucky lady on the table was holding the cards, slowing revealing, a natural 9, what was to be another two more rounds of natural. On the table the bets were intensive, the more they won, they more they increased the bet. So 7 in a row Player. The next round was Banker.
Thereafter the lower their bets, and hoping the the dragons to appeared. This table was real hot, what I noticed there were also opportunist gamblers who were somewhere waiting for Dragons, once a table was hot, everybody crowd round the table and bet.
Even the Insurance men stand by the table when a game was being called for.
When I looked at the patterns of play, tryul many dragons, no wonder everybody were happy. From what I see, gamblers loved dragons, thats the only time they can win much. A normal table can sit 5 people, when dragons appeared, there were more than 15 bets. When ding dong, you hardly see more than 5 bets.
sillverfox What will you be in this situation, when other gamblers follow the trend
especially opening more player dragon. There was a man whose voice raised attention, everytime he won, he betted heavily when a dragon. This something that I saw on the result block. What would you do if you are sitting on this table. Where other gamblers
follow the main gambler. When they bet on Player. Will you still bet on Banker as you don't bet Player. There one or two who go against the trend,

PPPPPPBBBBPPPPBBBBBBPPPPBBBBBPPPPPPPB.....

I missed out the tie as it bear no significant. The House was losing money, they were replenished their chips every now then. The funny thing was when later ding dong appeared, there seems to be less bets on the table. So there must be many opportunist gamblers waiting to strike when the time come.

 

[sohbuckkong]

went LJ yesterday not bad nice food played afew hand in bacarat manage to win few hundred. then saw a grp playing texas holdem thought of trying out fun with 100bucks manage to fight to ard 1k but got greedy couldve leave the table but lose it all in a all in showdown imagine my 9 full house lose a 10 fullhouse... but was fun
anyone else tried the game yet?

from 100 to 1k is v.good.

 

[sohbuckkong]

.........

With regards to card counting in baccarat, mentally, I thought it should work but when I ran my baccarat program (for 1000 shoes) of which I took out all the picture cards, I was quite surprise to note that this do not give any advantage to banker at all.

I then took out all the picture cards and all the 1,2,3 cards, the results also did not yield any advantage to banker or player.


##### picture cards taken out #############
banker = 21605 (45.4899566261001%) , player = 21037 (44.2940160862425%), tie = 4852


#### took out pictures and 1 ##############
banker = 18431 (45.6224163964455%) , player = 17886 (44.2733731032946%), tie = 4082

 

[kelvin]

have not gone LJ long time.
things have changed.
office shifted to 3rd flr.
took 8.50am ferry yesterday, WaveMaster 7.
table 16, got Banker streak.
a cool gentleman in blue t-shirt bet $400 each game.
Banker x 9 times running.
i myself made $600.
retun 3.45pm ferry.
i no strategy, just follow the trend,
win and run away,

GOOD LUCK to all.

 

[silverfox@]

When I looked at the patterns of play, tryul many dragons, no wonder everybody were happy. From what I see, gamblers loved dragons, thats the only time they can win much. A normal table can sit 5 people, when dragons appeared, there were more than 15 bets. When ding dong, you hardly see more than 5 bets.
sillverfox What will you be in this situation, when other gamblers follow the trend
especially opening more player dragon. There was a man whose voice raised attention, everytime he won, he betted heavily when a dragon. This something that I saw on the result block. What would you do if you are sitting on this table. Where other gamblers
follow the main gambler. When they bet on Player. Will you still bet on Banker as you don't bet Player. There one or two who go against the trend,

PPPPPPBBBBPPPPBBBBBBPPPPBBBBBPPPPPPPB.....

I don't follow thrend. I only buy Banker and only when the situation is favourable. When it is not, I skip. Even if Tie thrend or Player thrend come, I will still not buy them

 

[silverfox@]

With regards to card counting in baccarat, mentally, I thought it should work but when I ran my baccarat program (for 1000 shoes) of which I took out all the picture cards, I was quite surprise to note that this do not give any advantage to banker at all.

I then took out all the picture cards and all the 1,2,3 cards, the results also did not yield any advantage to banker or player.


##### picture cards taken out #############
banker = 21605 (45.4899566261001%) , player = 21037 (44.2940160862425%), tie = 4852


#### took out pictures and 1 ##############
banker = 18431 (45.6224163964455%) , player = 17886 (44.2733731032946%), tie = 4082

We can't count this way.
Every card no has an influence on the deck. Without the 10s,
in the deck would have A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
the following number cards can by itself make a 2 card combo without needing to draw 3rd card.

8 decks on cards, 50 cards out, left 366 cards. If there is an abundance of picture cards in it, more than the usual, the probability of Banker is higher.

When 200 cards are out of deck, there is only 216 cards left, if many pictures, it is highly likely for Player to draw a picture if they need to draw a 3rd card. And when player draw picture for 3rd card, banker very likely to win unless its 1st 2 card combo is 0,1,2 points

Also we cannot count Baccarat in the same way as people do counting in Blackjack. A +1, -1 counter because it doesn't work this way.

*BTW, if you take out picture cards, Banker's possibility is lowered, because Player when need to draw 3rd card, the chance of it drawing picture is 0% (due to no picture in deck) and Player drawing picture as 3rd card is actually the more favourable to Banker side.

 

[sohbuckkong]

We can't count this way.
Every card no has an influence on the deck. Without the 10s,
in the deck would have A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
the following number cards can by itself make a 2 card combo without needing to draw 3rd card.

8 decks on cards, 50 cards out, left 366 cards. If there is an abundance of picture cards in it, more than the usual, the probability of Banker is higher.

When 200 cards are out of deck, there is only 216 cards left, if many pictures, it is highly likely for Player to draw a picture if they need to draw a 3rd card. And when player draw picture for 3rd card, banker very likely to win unless its 1st 2 card combo is 0,1,2 points

Also we cannot count Baccarat in the same way as people do counting in Blackjack. A +1, -1 counter because it doesn't work this way.

*BTW, if you take out picture cards, Banker's possibility is lowered, because Player when need to draw 3rd card, the chance of it drawing picture is 0% (due to no picture in deck) and Player drawing picture as 3rd card is actually the more favourable to Banker side.

Originally I had the same thinking as you too. I thought that if I took out all the picture cards from the 8 decks of cards, then player's chances for winning against banker is increased. However I still have some reservations because I thought if I were to take out a picture card, it should affect not only player but also banker.

To be sure, I therefore decide to deal the cards without any picture cards to see the effect on banker and player. I dealt for 1000 shoes using my program and I was surprise when I saw that taking out all picture cards do not have any effect at all, the advantage of banker over player remains the same. I also dealt the cards without pictures and without aces, twos and threes and the results remain the same. This sounds logical too because if you take out a card from a deck, this affect not only player, but also banker and this sounds logical too because if theres no picture cards and player chances of winnings increases, then I gather most casinos will be in deep trouble as there will definately be many people using this card counting system against the casinos. However such threats do not exists.

Applying wrong theories against casinos is fatal, can lose a lot of money. I therefore urge you to deal the cards manually to see for yourself.

 

[44mm]

This thread really rocks man!

When i 1st started playing always lose. Sometimes won but it is becos lucky.

I have followed faithfully all the postings for this thread and start to apply on it. Nowdays most of the time win but even lost also little.

I play online most of the time due to work committment.

Thanks to all bros here with their informations. Very detail and got research somemore.

Just wanna say all this info helps. Esp people like me cos my frds call me gamble pig but not anymore! lol

Cheers!
44mm

 

[silverfox@]

Originally I had the same thinking as you too. I thought that if I took out all the picture cards from the 8 decks of cards, then player's chances for winning against banker is increased. However I still have some reservations because I thought if I were to take out a picture card, it should affect not only player but also banker.

To be sure, I therefore decide to deal the cards without any picture cards to see the effect on banker and player. I dealt for 1000 shoes using my program and I was surprise when I saw that taking out all picture cards do not have any effect at all, the advantage of banker over player remains the same. I also dealt the cards without pictures and without aces, twos and threes and the results remain the same. This sounds logical too because if you take out a card from a deck, this affect not only player, but also banker and this sounds logical too because if theres no picture cards and player chances of winnings increases, then I gather most casinos will be in deep trouble as there will definately be many people using this card counting system against the casinos. However such threats do not exists.

Applying wrong theories against casinos is fatal, can lose a lot of money. I therefore urge you to deal the cards manually to see for yourself.

I think some miscomm along the lines here. Need to clarify.

If there is an abundance of 10s(or pictures, we call it) left in the deck, for subsequent hands, if Player draws a 3rd card, the probability of Player drawing a 3rd card which is a picture is higher than normal. When Player draws a 3rd card which is a picture, under the rules of Baccarat, when Banker first 2 cards get 4,5,6,7,8,9, Banker do not need to draw anymore. And this result in Banker winning.

I did think that if a lot of 10s are out of the deck, like what you said, Player has a likelier chance. However, we must not forget the basic fundamental of our concept which is to stake on Banker. That means to say if 10s are out of deck, Player's percentage increase, but the rule of the thumb still goes whereby if

Player first 2 cards are 0,1,2,3,4,5 points, it still has to draw a 3rd card.

Banker has a slight edge over Player due to 3rd card ruling. That is why Banker have commission on bets over it.

What I am trying to say is if a lot of 10s are in the deck, then the Banker situation is favourable and I will bet on that shoe with Banker (an example)
If a lot of 10s are delivered out of the deck, then the Banker situation is no longer as favourable as before and I will not bet on that shoe. Even though Banker chances have dropped, I will still not bet on Player.

I have tried both ways using manual and playing online. Placing bets on Player just isn't worth it. It would be more worthwhile to concentrate on Banker based on counting.

Counting however is not just based on counting 10s(pictures) alone.

If 10s are out, then likelier hood other cards will come out soon.

Casinos to prevent counting, decided to use 8 decks of cards . But using 8 deck of cards, when cards are delivered, there are lesser and lesser cards left in the deck. This can be an advantage to us and not a disadvantage.

I am collating the table on every single combination.
An example is below
[A,10],[A,J],[A,Q],[A,K],[A,A],[A,2],[A,3],[A,4],[A,9] these are the various combis of Ace where there is a need for it to draw 3rd card

Out of 13 combis, for Ace, 9 combis require it to draw a 3rd card.

For card no 6,
[6,4],[6,5],[6,6],[6,7],[6,8],[6,9]
Out of 13 combis, for 6, 6 combis require it to draw a 3rd card.

It is a very good thing for Player to draw a 3rd card, because most often than not, their chances of winning is reduced greatly. That is why counting cannot be done on just 1 aspect but from few areas. I know its rather complex or rather complicated for most people to understand, that is why I am trying to transfer all these to tables, and then by percentages making it easier to comprehend.

 

[sohbuckkong]

Brudder silverfox,
I am now on my way to LJ. Dont have much time here, will post here in detail tonight. Basically I agree almost everything you said and that was what I thought too. But on the practical side when i dealt the cards without picture cards etc....., the results is not what we thought.

I think some miscomm along the lines here. Need to clarify.

If there is an abundance of 10s(or pictures, we call it) left in the deck, for subsequent hands, if Player draws a 3rd card, the probability of Player drawing a 3rd card which is a picture is higher than normal. When Player draws a 3rd card which is a picture, under the rules of Baccarat, when Banker first 2 cards get 4,5,6,7,8,9, Banker do not need to draw anymore. And this result in Banker winning.

I did think that if a lot of 10s are out of the deck, like what you said, Player has a likelier chance. However, we must not forget the basic fundamental of our concept which is to stake on Banker. That means to say if 10s are out of deck, Player's percentage increase, but the rule of the thumb still goes whereby if

Player first 2 cards are 0,1,2,3,4,5 points, it still has to draw a 3rd card.

Banker has a slight edge over Player due to 3rd card ruling. That is why Banker have commission on bets over it.

What I am trying to say is if a lot of 10s are in the deck, then the Banker situation is favourable and I will bet on that shoe with Banker (an example)
If a lot of 10s are delivered out of the deck, then the Banker situation is no longer as favourable as before and I will not bet on that shoe. Even though Banker chances have dropped, I will still not bet on Player.

I have tried both ways using manual and playing online. Placing bets on Player just isn't worth it. It would be more worthwhile to concentrate on Banker based on counting.

Counting however is not just based on counting 10s(pictures) alone.

If 10s are out, then likelier hood other cards will come out soon.

Casinos to prevent counting, decided to use 8 decks of cards . But using 8 deck of cards, when cards are delivered, there are lesser and lesser cards left in the deck. This can be an advantage to us and not a disadvantage.

I am collating the table on every single combination.
An example is below
[A,10],[A,J],[A,Q],[A,K],[A,A],[A,2],[A,3],[A,4],[A,9] these are the various combis of Ace where there is a need for it to draw 3rd card

Out of 13 combis, for Ace, 9 combis require it to draw a 3rd card.

For card no 6,
[6,4],[6,5],[6,6],[6,7],[6,8],[6,9]
Out of 13 combis, for 6, 6 combis require it to draw a 3rd card.

It is a very good thing for Player to draw a 3rd card, because most often than not, their chances of winning is reduced greatly. That is why counting cannot be done on just 1 aspect but from few areas. I know its rather complex or rather complicated for most people to understand, that is why I am trying to transfer all these to tables, and then by percentages making it easier to comprehend.

 

[silverfox@]

Brudder silverfox,
I am now on my way to LJ. Dont have much time here, will post here in detail tonight. Basically I agree almost everything you said and that was what I thought too. But on the practical side when i dealt the cards without picture cards etc....., the results is not what we thought.

I entirely agree with you, that's why i need to do some more runs on live games before i can tweak it to its maximum.

 

[0939]

There are at least 6 Baccarat tables at LJ. Some tables empty, some full to capacity.
I had observed there are many opportunist baccarat players, who are on constant alert on any one of the table where a dragon emerged. these people will go for the crowd betting. One one hot table, a lady "BI" the cards, she possessed good luck, most of the time a natural for Player. So Banker lose. In this case was a 7 straight Player. From what I see this attracted other gamblers from other table. The bets keep piling until
House have to replenish the chips. After 7 Player, came the Banker, then Player, Banker, Player, Banker,. The bets died down, less people bet or bet less.
The House will lose if it is Dragon and win if it is Ding Dong. These gamblers have a
same understanding of betting. If open Banker, the next bet will be Banker, if is Player, then it will be Player. Baccarat tables are noisy, so you have to be on the constant move. If one is patience, by following the crowd stand to win. This is my observations.

 

[Natural Nine]

There are at least 6 Baccarat tables at LJ. Some tables empty, some full to capacity.
I had observed there are many opportunist baccarat players, who are on constant alert on any one of the table where a dragon emerged. these people will go for the crowd betting. One one hot table, a lady "BI" the cards, she possessed good luck, most of the time a natural for Player. So Banker lose. In this case was a 7 straight Player. From what I see this attracted other gamblers from other table. The bets keep piling until
House have to replenish the chips. After 7 Player, came the Banker, then Player, Banker, Player, Banker,. The bets died down, less people bet or bet less.
The House will lose if it is Dragon and win if it is Ding Dong. These gamblers have a
same understanding of betting. If open Banker, the next bet will be Banker, if is Player, then it will be Player. Baccarat tables are noisy, so you have to be on the constant move. If one is patience, by following the crowd stand to win. This is my observations.

Hi 0939 ,

Just read your post . You are very Good to share your observationnn.

You have indeed revealed the Secret To Winning Baccarat ... !

May you have many Dragon / Leng returns ....

Thank you Bro

 

[silverfox@]

The table above is the 2 card combination for Baccarat (Banker, Player side)
Player always draw cards first.

As we can see on the 1st row, [A,A] means Player has 2 points. [A,3] means Player has 4 points.
Player needs to draw 3rd card when its total for first 2 cards is 0,1,2,3,4,5 points.

The combinations in orange are the combinations that needs to draw a 3rd card from the side of a Player.

Out of 169 combinations, 105 combinations are where Player needs to draw a 3rd card. Which turns out to be a 62.13%
When Player draws a 3rd card and Banker does not need to, the probability of Banker winning is very high.