I thought you said that emotion should not come into play.
Hence even if the dealer gets 10 or picture cards for the first 10 hands, you should not assume that the dealer is on a hot or winning streak. Strictly by the law of probability, he will have to draw bad cards anytime soon.
Once I played blackjack at the same table continuously for 4 hours. I had set myself a loss limit but had not reached it, so continued. After 4 hours, I realised that I had broken even exactly. What a waste of 4 hours!
My view is that we should set both a loss limit and a time / number of hands limit for each trip. Leave whichever is reached first.
It is not emotions coming into play. It's understanding what kind of dealer cards are advantage to us and what kind are disadvantage to us. Let's say we play 1 hours, the sample size is too small. Even if play 4 hrs straight, we may not see the real sample size. 60 hands per hour, 4 x 60 = 240 hands. Sample size is too small.
The toss coin example is best example. If you toss a coin either head or tail. Let's say toss 10 times. Will you be certain 5 times head 5 times tail? This is what I called a small sample size.
It is highly possible 8 times head, 2 times tail or 7 times head, 3 times tail.
But when you toss it 100 times, the sample size increased, but you may still get 60 heads, 40 tails.
When you toss it 1000 times, this sample size increase and you will realise the number of heads and tails are very near.
10 times, 7 head, 3 tail. 70% head, 30% tail
100 times, 60 head, 40 tail. 60% head, 40 tail.
1000 times, 528 head, 472 tail. 52.8% head, 47.2% tail.
When you add an additional toss after 10 times, the percentage increase is close to 10%.
When you add an additional toss after 1000 times, the percentage increase is only close to 0.1%
No one can sit around and wait for a 1000 hands to happen, unless he is playing 5 holes at least and playing for at least 4 hours.
If for the 1st 10 hands, dealer is on a hot roll, keep getting 10 or picture cards, doesn't mean the small cards will come soon. The law of probability only applies if there is no continuous shuffling. With a shuffler machine shuffling every round, to see the law of probability is to see over a large sample size.
There are times when you sit at a table for 4 hours, and although you started with losing and maybe after 4 hours, you get back your capital, you should not think you are wasting time. You should think about how lucky you are you can get back your capital. Most of the time, people would still be losing or lost even more because they think stop loss has not hit.
Maybe to people who patronise a casino once a month or less than once a month, 4 hours is nothing. For those who go often, the period you play must not be long and loss limit must be low.
I said this many many postings ago. Do not take too hard when losing small. Losing a $100, you just need to win $200 to see a $100 profit. But if lose a lot, example $5000, you will need to win $5100 to see a $100 profit.
Which is easier? To win $200 or to win $5100.
One of the hardest strategies to learn is how to walk away when losing and not to chase losses.
If you have a stop loss of $500 and 1 hour to play. After 1 hour, lost $200 only. Most will continue to play. But honestly if you are going to win, your 1st 10-20 minutes will already make you see profit. After 1 hour, don't see anything means you are not likely to go home a winner. The winning strategy is to save the $300 and go back another day. You just need to win $300 to see a $100 profit.
And able to bring $300 out of the casino, you just need to top back $200 instead of bringing out another $500 as capital again.
Do what the casino hates most. Bringing our own capital out of casino and not losing back to them
Winning is a combination of knowing the odds, rules, applying few strategies and money management plus discipline. It's much much more than just bringing money, go into casino and play.
