Chitchat Bond investors in Spore be careful

[Ash007]

most of the uncles and aunties staying in Buona Vista, Clementi, Toa Payoh, Redhill HDBs and likes are worth $500K to $1mio right?
Let our younger generation be enslaved in mountain of debts to bail out the paper-rich old.

Another article from Bloomberg this morning:

Saving Singapore's Wealthy
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/ar...ngapore-s-wealthy-from-bankers-and-themselves

A lot of uncle aunties have no idea what they are talking about. My parents are like that as well. It pisses me off a lot when they say "Just buy property it always goes up!". What they don't understand is that the baby boomers generation had it "easy". Median salary to house prices were 3-4 at BEST. Now? Even with CPF, with increased wage growth, the valuation is still too high! Its not about the amount, but the actual ration hence affordability! And here is the kicker, I'm looking at a funeral home business to invest in. Think about it, paper rich baby boomers dying off.

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

I got some shares of Public Bank which has been given me dividends for sometime. Haven't done anything with it so far. I''m thinking of using all that ringgit to get some Maybank shares because they recently gave a dividend of almost 6.9%.

Public Bank and HL Bank are better banks in Malaysian than CIMB or Maybank.

However, taking clue from the weakness in global banks, eg Deutsche Bank fell to lows last night and our local banks refusing to write-off their O&G and property bad debts, I will avoid financial institution at least until US elections are over.

Yesterday's News: OCBC - Private home prices feared to plummet by up to 15%
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/private-home-prices-feared-plummet-15

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust sells perpetual bonds offering at 7%
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/com...ail-trust-sells-perpetual-bonds-offering-at-7

"It looks like the highest (coupon) so far this year," said a banker.

The expected issue size is S$100-150 million, according to a term sheet seen by The Business Times.

There has been a dearth of high yield Singapore dollar bonds as investor appetite soured following the default by Swiber in July.

"The environment is very tough," said the banker, adding that there is room for investment grade issues but less so for unrated high yield bonds.

 

[johnny333]

..Some of these people went in expecting high returns in 1 year, it doesn't happen like that. That is gambling, might as well go to casino and dump 10K a hand on black or red. You'll double or nothing after 5min. It doesn't take an intelligent person to actually make money. Its your psychological that is more important. As an example, I was down -30% at 1 stage for my high risk stock, but I brought more! Now its ahead 260%

Remember reading that when the casinos opened in Spore, the brokerage companies saw a drop in investment activity.
Many so called investor were actually punters who used the stock market as a means to gamble

I'm familiar with scaling in & out of trades because I've used it when I traded the forex but be careful because it is a double edge sword. Although it can increase your profits, it also increases the size risk of loses.

 

[Ash007]

Remember reading that when the casinos opened in Spore, the brokerage companies saw a drop in investment activity.
Many so called investor were actually punters who used the stock market as a means to gamble

I'm familiar with scaling in & out of trades because I've used it when I traded the forex but be careful because it is a double edge sword. Although it can increase your profits, it also increases the size risk of loses.

Yes I understand that, doubling down means doubling up or doubling down as well.

 

[krafty]

Don't buy shares until we monitor this October. We don't even know if Fed & BOJ will shock the market in the next 12-36hours.

As for Reits, Lippo's new 7% bonds today, will probably gives higher returns than their ordinary shares in the next 2-3 years.

i am confident to say fed won't hike interest rate but yellen will say something like good times ahead and expect hike in Dec.

as for BOJ, i can't tell as nihon central bankers are very erratic, they can say things like no further cut. and then later one afternoon, drop a bomb to say further interest rate cut is required.

 

[scroobal]

You might want to read Andy M's article again. He is not suggesting what you you are suggesting. The young are not bailing out the "paper-rich old". That scenario is in countries where much of your tax dollars goes into supporting a welfare state to look after the retirees and the unemployed.

There is certainly a flight from investing in stock markets not only in Singapore but across the World due to slowdown in the global economy. There is also very little returns from bank savings account. Much of the investment pool is now directed at property (not reit).

The savvy businesses owners are taking the opportunity of low share prices and lack of liquidity to buy back now cheaper shares and delist from the exchange. Every month there is one or two. Its a clear sign not to touch shares as the quality of the remaining pool are poor except for some blue chips.

The best bet in this climate is to hold on to your cash or upgrade your current home while the mortgage rates are low.

There is another trend among young graduates which has been making the press in the last few years - taking the risk and investing in a business. Food is popular where the capital requirements are generally affordable. Provision of services is another. Retail however is out.

You did point out one thing which is true - many are not genuine investors but gamblers at heart. You can't advise or help this lot. They are also the ones with impressive investing terms, can explain what is black as white and vice versa etc. They are not trying to convince others why they should invest but they are actually trying to convince themselves to punt on a counter.

most of the uncles and aunties staying in Buona Vista, Clementi, Toa Payoh, Redhill HDBs and likes are worth $500K to $1mio right?
Let our younger generation be enslaved in mountain of debts to bail out the paper-rich old.

Another article from Bloomberg this morning:

Saving Singapore's Wealthy
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/ar...ngapore-s-wealthy-from-bankers-and-themselves

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

Tomorrow is Super Wednesday.
Watch BOJ - 25% chance they might reduce rates
Watch Fed - 25% chance they might hike rates

Update: BOJ did not surprise the market. PEACE

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

You might want to read Andy M's article again. He is not suggesting what you you are suggesting. The young are not bailing out the "paper-rich old". That scenario is in countries where much of your tax dollars goes into supporting a welfare state to look after the retirees and the unemployed.

There is certainly a flight from investing in stock markets not only in Singapore but across the World due to slowdown in the global economy. There is also very little returns from bank savings account. Much of the investment pool is now directed at property (not reit).

The savvy businesses owners are taking the opportunity of low share prices and lack of liquidity to buy back now cheaper shares and delist from the exchange. Every month there is one or two. Its a clear sign not to touch shares as the quality of the remaining pool are poor except for some blue chips.

The best bet in this climate is to hold on to your cash or upgrade your current home while the mortgage rates are low.

There is another trend among young graduates which has been making the press in the last few years - taking the risk and investing in a business. Food is popular where the capital requirements are generally affordable. Provision of services is another. Retail however is out.

You did point out one thing which is true - many are not genuine investors but gamblers at heart. You can't advise or help this lot. They are also the ones with impressive investing terms, can explain what is black as white and vice versa etc. They are not trying to convince others why they should invest but they are actually trying to convince themselves to punt on a counter.

Good perspective.

 

[po2wq]

Update: BOJ did not surprise the market. PEACE

so, market wil go up or down? ...

haf 2 or dun haf 2 run? ...

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

so, market wil go up or down? ...

haf 2 or dun haf 2 run? ...

Too late to RUN.
For many of us who haven't RUN by now, are probably sitting on paper losses.
Even yesterday's Lippo 7% placements, struggling to stay afloat (par).

Don't add new positions until October is over.

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

International Healthway Corp

Very good article.
http://tradehaven.net/ihc-seems-a-case-of-poor-pr-bad-luck-and-past-catching-up

In the business of investing and managing medical facilities, IHC – International Healthway Corp – is in a recession-proof industry which should be an enviable position today. Yet, its woes don’t seem to end. I am writing on this counter mainly to use it as an example to flag out the issues of corporate PR and governance for Singapore catalist companies, and the bigger issue about regulatory guidelines on bond issuers, arranging banks and trustees when events occur. It’s the usual blackout from this latter group that should worry investors.

Long and short, if I read the IHC matter correctly, it’s a sad case of confluence of bad luck with its past catching up with them and some hostile bidders lurking in the background.

IHCSP 6.000% 06Feb2018 Corp (SGD)
Last Checked: 35% discount from par
Bonds Issued: S$50mio
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/SG6VF1000009

IHCSP 7.000% 27Apr2017 Corp (SGD)
Last Checked: 17% discount from par
Bonds Issued: S$50mio
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/SG6WG5000001

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

Distress call from Rickmers Trust bondholders:

RICKSP 8.450% 15May2017 Corp (SGD)
Last Checked: Offered 72% discount from par by converting 28% value to shares
Bonds Issued: S$100mio

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

There were some noises when the NOL bonds collapsed after the French indicated interest to buy NOL (Change of Control) and many investors were left helpless. NOL has as many bonds floated as Swiber. But sorry, what is Swiber compared to NOL?

Many who bought NOL bonds with leverages + longer maturities are now facing margin-calls from their bankers in the past few months. Nobody helped them.

Let me assume those rich who buys bonds are less crazy those those who buy futures and FX. We can also stereotype the rich who bought Swiber as higher-risk takers but now even the most risk-adverse rich who bought NOL bonds without leverage, are facing 30-40% paper loss on the bonds that are not matured. 40% paper loss means high risk of default.



NOLSP 4.250% 26Apr2017 Corp (SGD)
Last Checked: 5% discount from par
Bonds Issued: S$400mio
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/SG6U79981465

NOLSP 4.400% 08Nov2019 Corp
Last Checked: 20% discount from par
Bonds Issued: $300mio
Latest Price: https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/SG6Y06987482

NOLSP 4.650% 09Sep2020
Last Checked: 35% discount from par
Bonds Issued: $280mio
Latest Price: https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/SG7X44961531

NOLSP 4.400% 22Jun2021 Corp
Last Checked: 40% discount from par
Bonds Issued: S$300mio
Latest Price: https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/SG6P73971303

People who buys NOL are also not gamblers, people who buys NOL want a peace of mind. Our regulators betrayed them citing these are commercial decisions. Recently, we see more bonds defaulting every month not only because of insolvency but also because our country refuses to inject liquidity into the local corporate bond market like the Europeans, Chinese or Japanese. The most risk-adverse investors are also hit this time, the domino effect will be fell in other sectors of our financial industry if we continue to do nothing about it.


NOL's holding company CMA CGM's bond is currently trading at 25% below par.
Check here for latest price: http://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=XS1244815111

NOL Bonds FAQs
https://www.nol.com.sg/wps/portal/nol/investorrelations/stockinformation/faq

 

[mojito]

Now. Now is the time. Buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy. What goes down must come up again, right?

 

[johnny333]

Now. Now is the time. Buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy. What goes down must come up again, right?

Have you heard about catching a falling knife

It's better to invest in companies that are doing well. Of course you have to pay more but you are less likely to lose $.

 

[frenchbriefs]

Now. Now is the time. Buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy. What goes down must come up again, right?

unless the fed are indicating its the national policy to start bailing O&G companies cause they are too big to fail,i think its save to say its better to trade the trend and bail on a lifeboat along with the rest.cause the market is a collective emotions that move in trends and reinforces itself,and the market can be irrational longer than u can remain solvent,euphoria or paranoia.and trends move in one direction until it gives the signal that its clearly broken,thats how busts and booms and bubbles are formed.....or at least something like what george soro's theory of reflexivity says.long live george soros!!!!amithabah!!!!!

the correct hedge fund strategy would be to maximize ur returns by minimizing ur risks and exposures.by taking out a series of shorts to balance out ur long positions during times of uncertainty,although the ballsiest hedge funds will simply go full short all the way.

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

Tomorrow is Super Wednesday.
Watch BOJ - 25% chance they might reduce rates
Watch Fed - 25% chance they might hike rates

Update: BOJ did not surprise the market. PEACE
Update: FED did not surprise the market. PEACE

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

Marco Polo Marine
Ms Vivian Hsu married the CEO of this locally-listed marine logistic company. Last week, the company announced that they need delay payment on their bonds and rumoured to seek bondholders' approval to roll over for a few more years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-plans-to-delay-payment-on-bonds-in-singapore

Message from a very supportive wife:-

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/zentertainment/celebs/story20160921-668962

“从小到大我靠自己脚踏实地的过着每一天撑起一个家，除了孕期需卧床不得不停工以外，婚后我也依然做着自己喜爱的表演工作，女人要有自己的事业、自己的成就和自我的肯定，这样的初衷，婚前婚后都没有改变过。

“在现代男女平等的价值观里，我从来没有想要去做贵太太，那从来不是我追求的梦想也不是我衡量生活的标准，幸福不等于锦衣玉食！我的梦想很简单，能遇到一位对生活、工作、家庭，认真的好老公，一起努力去经营我们的小家庭，继续勇敢的面对生活。我的幸福是我们都健康、平安。

“人与人的相遇是缘份，更难得的是我遇到一个能相知、相信、相扶持的人。婚前婚后我和老公对彼此的事业和专业一直保持尊重又互相支持的态度，很感谢先生和婆家一路支持我，去做我喜欢的事，从未给我任何压力。 最后谢谢大家的关心。”



MPMSP 5.750% 18Oct2016 Corp (SGD)
Last Checked: 30% discount from par
Bonds Issued: S$50mio
https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond-info/bond-factsheet/SG58C9997636

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

should have gone into building luxury cruise ships or parts of it as baby boomer retirees have money and are spending like crazy on cruise vacations. both princess and royal caribbean are placing huge orders for larger, newer, more luxurious, more ostentatious, ludicrously decked monster hotels of the oceans. german, french and italian firms are kings in this luxury cruise building business. supposed sg firms are too deep in shit in the greyish, ugly, utilitarian o&g segment.

In the same context, an locally-listed company did revamped their business to divert from O&G and committed their marine assets to do land-reclamation in South China Sea.