Backlash against SDP if WP loses

[godiva]

May be WP people are too used to luck factor, just tikam and hope people will let go but I dont. You are again talking hindsight without backside here.Did you anticipate NS to have such impact prior to GE ? You dont but I do. Period.

Goh Meng Seng

Then TKL under your guidance only get 5% in PE is it due to bad luck or because he had a Dog Head Tactician in you

 

[godiva]

There is no if on such situation and nobody will know the end results of alternate outcome until you do it. Obviously once you decide, dont whine.

Goh Meng Seng

You have decided to quit WP. Then why are you still whinning about them to this date?

You are a really bitter and vengeful man. Heng ah Tampines GRC people got eyes to see.

 

[tanwahp]

I can tell you straight most of the people either dont think its good idea or even laughed at it when the idea of contesting MP were brought up. I convinced Seb and he agreed with it and both of us lobbied and tried to convince potential candidates. We work as a team to get this done.

There is no if on such situation and nobody will know the end results of alternate outcome until you do it. Obviously once you decide, dont whine.

Contesting MP was a right move by NSP. That I am clear.

The issue here is the unexpected outcome of the contest some people are boasting they saw whereas others did not. That is, as what you said, talking on hindsight.

If both of you were so confident that MP will out to be the best NSP constituency, you will not field this team, both of you may even contest there yourselves.

After the 2011 election, WP did not declare that they will take MP in 2016 but Tampines despite that MP did better than Tampines. Why? It means MP was not and will not be under WP's radar. What regret?

 

[metalmickey]

It is not what I believe and it is how the MSM will spin, giving meaning to the people who read it.

SDP has not competed in this ward before and if with a simple walk on the ground and it can gain 10% share, it will tells a lot on true support for WP.

WP have to maintain 41% or higher to show case success.

Please note that we are discussing this hypotetically.

It is not that the mainstream media says that 10% is a bad reflection on SDP. It is that everybody says that. All I have to say is, if you're really from SDP, or if SDP people think like you, they will be wiped off the face of the earth.

 

[metalmickey]

I can tell you straight most of the people either dont think its good idea or even laughed at it when the idea of contesting MP were brought up. I convinced Seb and he agreed with it and both of us lobbied and tried to convince potential candidates. We work as a team to get this done.

There is no if on such situation and nobody will know the end results of alternate outcome until you do it. Obviously once you decide, dont whine.

Goh Meng Seng

That is not the issue. I don't think contesting MP was a mistake for NSP. But the question is - why did you not field an all star team there? Put all your aces together in Tampines, or Marine Parade, or Choa Chu Kang. Just choose 1 GRC. SDP knows how to field an all star line-up. WP knows how to field an all star line-up. You are the only one who doesn't get it.

 

[denzuko1]

It is not that the mainstream media says that 10% is a bad reflection on SDP. It is that everybody says that. All I have to say is, if you're really from SDP, or if SDP people think like you, they will be wiped off the face of the earth.

Nope, not every body says that. Most simply predicting what would be the %age share for each parties should there be a multi parties fight. There are also different groups of people supporting argument from both sides.

Nope, not from SDP, and I am here only for discussion and and just sharing my analysis.

I doubt that SDP will be wipe out from face of the earth. At their worst, they still managed at least 20% voters (Sembawang). they look so much milder now.

Plus, there are always people who are staunch supporter of hardcore politics and SDP former strategy appeal to them, and they are willing to support.

 

[sleaguepunter]

These people wont understand that. They are in self denial that there are hardcore opposition supporters who would rather vote other parties instead of WP.TOO FULL of themselves to realize that they do not have the whole pie to eat it.

Goh Meng Seng

u drink too much china water till brain dead.

10% hardcore anti pap vote get u no where other than lose deposit.

is sdp aiming to prove they can get half of the hardcore voters which is ard 20-25%?

the only way to win with 10% votes is to 20 or more candidates multi corners contest.

 

[sleaguepunter]

I doubt that SDP will be wipe out from face of the earth. At their worst, they still managed at least 20% voters (Sembawang). they look so much milder now.

Plus, there are always people who are staunch supporter of hardcore politics and SDP former strategy appeal to them, and they are willing to support.

if sdp can only attract the hardcore voters, then sdp will never win a seat unless spore election change to proportion representation. without the support of the middle ground, how to win?

 

[godiva]

if sdp can only attract the hardcore voters, then sdp will never win a seat unless spore election change to proportion representation. without the support of the middle ground, how to win?

Maybe SDP 's purpose is not to win but to make sure WP dont win.

I actually like many of SDP candidates in GE2011 but seems like they are going back that slippery road again.

 

[metalmickey]

Nope, not every body says that. Most simply predicting what would be the %age share for each parties should there be a multi parties fight. There are also different groups of people supporting argument from both sides.

What you don't understand is that the election results is basically the expression of the will of the people. So for you to say the SDP will get 10% in a multi-corner fight, that means that 90% of the voters reject SDP. "90% of the voters rejecting SDP" and "everybody says that SDP is crap" are basically the same thing. The passing mark for SDP is not to take votes away from the WP. Any idiot can do that. Even Desmond Lim can do that. The passing mark is to win a seat in parliament.

If you really want to know what opposition unity is, I make an analogy from the infantry. It is like 2 people doing section live firing. You have your lane, I have my lane, you stay in your lane, I stay in my lane, we don't cross, we don't shoot each other. And when people see that the WP and SDP are co-operating to whack PAP, that is what they want. Right now, both of them will be in the same lane, they will crossfire, and one person will shoot the other guy's backside.

Opposition unity doesn't mean that there is a coalition yet. Maybe that will come later. SDP's task is not to whack WP. It is to go and contest and win seats.

In any case, it's not very hard for SDP to say - well, Kenneth Jeyaretnam is going to harakiri in Punggol East, I don't really want to be a part of it. Which is good. When the Reform Party dies, there will be more seats for WP and SDP to take in the next GE and they don't have to whack each other for it.

 

[zhihau]

Right now, both of them will be in the same lane, they will crossfire, and one person will shoot the other guy's backside.

all opposition parties must AIM properly and shoot at those rotten mangoes at the tree

 

[yellowarse]

So for you to say the SDP will get 10% in a multi-corner fight, that means that 90% of the voters reject SDP. "90% of the voters rejecting SDP" and "everybody says that SDP is crap" are basically the same thing. The passing mark for SDP is not to take votes away from the WP. Any idiot can do that. Even Desmond Lim can do that. The passing mark is to win a seat in parliament.

Both you and Denzuko1 have missed the point. 10% support means just that 10% support SDP, and 90% prefer the other parties. That is, if it's a straight fight between SDP and PAP, SDP may still garner 40% by virtue of the other oppo votes migrating to them.

So 10% support SDP ≠ 90% reject SDP.

All one can say is that it will be a uphill task for SDP to move from 10% in a multi-corner fight to win that constituency in the next election. You can't extrapolate accurately to another SMC or GRC.

Opposition unity doesn't mean that there is a coalition yet. Maybe that will come later. SDP's task is not to whack WP. It is to go and contest and win seats.

No matter how you define unity, it takes 2 hands to clap. If one side persistently remains aloof, then no co-operation is possible. Looking at events in the past few days, I'm beginning to think that Singaporeans are still not mature enough for opposition unity. Too many egos, too much bad blood, too much 'what's in it for me and my party' instead of 'what's in it for all of us'.

A PK-style coalition remains a pipe dream.

 

[metalmickey]

All one can say is that it will be a uphill task for SDP to move from 10% in a multi-corner fight to win that constituency in the next election. You can't extrapolate accurately to another SMC or GRC.

Well that we can agree on. And I would say, actually, yes, you can extrapolate to other SMCs or GRCs. In many respects, they aren't that different.

No matter how you define unity, it takes 2 hands to clap. If one side persistently remains aloof, then no co-operation is possible. Looking at events in the past few days, I'm beginning to think that Singaporeans are still not mature enough for opposition unity. Too many egos, too much bad blood, too much 'what's in it for me and my party' instead of 'what's in it for all of us'.

A PK-style coalition remains a pipe dream.

I don't agree that people should be talking about a coalition at this point. What's really important is that each party proves themselves by winning seats.

WP did the right thing by saying "no comment". No comment means "not now". Of course not now. The most ridiculous aspect of this "opposition unity" thing is that you're entering into an arrangement just because there is a by-election.

It's a bit like mergers and acquisition. Don't think about getting yourself bought out first. First step is to win seats on your own merits. Then you have the bargaining power, you can name your price.

Political alliances are no joke. Look at SDA. Did SDA survive?

Look at the Conservative - Liberal Democrat coalition. Does every body like each other there?

Are the political aspirations of both parties compatible?

I hope that WP and SDP can move on from this episode. Don't fuck around with each other. Don't slag off each other. Be nice when you meet each other to discuss dividing up Singapore for GE 2016. And once you got your piece of territory, work hard and try to win seats there. Don't criticise other opposition parties. Just try and win a few fucking seats in parliament. And when you got the seats, then you can start talking about alliances. Every party has their own philosophy, every party has their own way of doing things. Most important thing now is to develop your methods, develop your philosophy, your way of doing things, and test it on the ground with your people, whatever. If you have ammo to whack the PAP, share it around. ie SDP should be whacking the PAP now on the AIM issue. They should not be whacking WP.

Walk the ground. Share your ideas with people. Get feedback. And when you have tested your party, then you will know the response of your people, you will know yourself better. Even now, when WP seems to be ahead of other opposition parties, I'm quite sure they're not very clear about their political philosophy yet. There's no need to talk about alliances now.

 

[tanwahp]

10% support means just that 10% support SDP, and 90% prefer the other parties. That is, if it's a straight fight between SDP and PAP, SDP may still garner 40% by virtue of the other oppo votes migrating to them.

Going by the theory of GMS, the 30% extra gotten by SDP in a straight fight aren't really SDP votes in the first place.

Not that I agree with this, but WP critics tend to avoid shooting each other even though they may have vastly different views, so I wondered what you think.

 

[yellowarse]

Not that I agree with this, but WP critics tend to avoid shooting each other even though they may have vastly different views, so I wondered what you think.

Maybe the various opposition parties have a better relationship with each other than with WP?

I dunno ...