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Serious Japan's and Taiwan's COMBINED Armed Forces are STRONGER than the PRC's, according to the Swiss bank, Credit Suisse! haha
- Thread starter empathizerofeatshitndie
- Start date
sammyboy.com/posts/3142654
) with the essence of my most important reason, even though it's only your fourth most important reason!
Dear @jw5, for the tenth time, many belated thanks for bumping up my thread again the day before yesterday by letting me know that you are thinking of more reasons for your prediction that the PLA will not invade Taiwan!I am thinking of more reasons.
I shall now finally post a long-winded reply to your three reasons:
PLA will not invade Taiwan (for a variety of reasons).
The most important reason is that Taiwan has not formally declared independence.
I believe that the second most important reason PLA will not invade Taiwan is that there are many people in both PRC and ROC who consider themselves as part of one country and do not really want to cause hardship to each other.by saying, firstly, that they would all make sense (or maybe only a bit more sense) to me IF you had posted them before this year!I believe that the third most important reason is that despite lots of posturing on both sides, both PRC and ROC are quite contented with the status quo. PRC are quite contented that Taiwan largely does not have an independent country status on the world stage and most countries consider Taiwan as part of China. Taiwan are also quite contented that they have their own system, elected government, freedom to lead their lives the way most of the people want.
Secondly, my main reason for your reasons NOT making sense to me this year is that, unless I am very mistaken, the vast majority of KMT voters (5,522,119 valid voters / 19,311,105 eligible voters X 100% = only roughly 28.6% of all eligible voters) in the last election:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Results
were born before 1970, i.e. they are the baby boomers and their parents, who obviously cannot live forever, right?
Whereas, unless I am very mistaken again, the vast majority of DPP voters were born from the 1970s onwards and would have, therefore, lost touch with Mainland Chinese culture, causing them to be naturally much more anti-PRC/CCP than their parents and grandparents, right?
If we just focus on the past four elections during the past decade, the percentage of all eligible voters (not just valid voters) voting for the DPP has been gradually increasing from:
5,444,949 valid voters / 17,321,622 eligible voters X 100% = roughly 31.4% of all eligible voters in the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Election_results
to 6,093,578 valid voters / 18,086,455 eligible voters X 100% = roughly 33.7% of all eligible voters in the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Result
to 6,894,744 valid voters / 18,782,991 eligible voters X 100% = roughly 36.7% of all eligible voters in the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Results
to 8,170,231 valid voters / 19,311,105 eligible voters X 100% = roughly 42.3% of all eligible voters in the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Results
And according to:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan#Births_and_deaths
wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Taiwan#Statistics_since_1997
roughly 1,040,000 Taiwanese babies were born from 2000 to 2003 and they will all be eligible to vote in the next election in early 2024; and I'm predicting at least 69% of them will vote for the DPP!
Also, roughly 690,000 Taiwanese people died during the past four years (2016 to 2019); roughly 635,000 died from 2012 to 2015 and roughly 585,000 died from 2008 to 2011; therefore, because the number of Taiwanese people dying every four years since 2008 has been increasing by roughly 50,000, there's a good chance that roughly 750,000 will die from this year (2020) to 2023, causing the number of eligible voters to increase by only roughly 300,000 for the next election!
This is mainly because, besides more people dying every four years, fewer babies have also been born every four years, which is why the number of eligible voters has been increasing by a significantly smaller number every four years and might eventually decrease:
18,086,455 - 17,321,622 = 764,833 more eligible voters in the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Result
18,782,991 - 18,086,455 = 696,536 more eligible voters in the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Results
19,311,105 - 18,782,991 = 528,114 more eligible voters in the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Taiwanese_presidential_election#Results
So if the number of eligible voters in the next election (in early 2024) increases by 300,000 to roughly 19.6 million; and out of the 1,040,000 new eligible voters (born from 2000 to 2003), 696,969 of them vote for the DPP and all the 8,170,231 eligible voters who voted for the DPP earlier this year (in January 2020) continue to vote for the DPP again in 2024, the result would be nearly 8.9 million valid votes being won by the DPP and the percentage of eligible voters voting for the DPP would be 8.9 / 19.6 x 100% = roughly 45.4% and this does not count potential swing voters (who voted for the KMT or other parties this year) nor does it count potential DPP voters who did not bother to vote at all this year (roughly a quarter of all eligible voters).
Anyway, why am I focusing so much on eligible voters and not valid voters?
Simply because I am predicting a new:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Taiwan#National_referendum
on "Taiwanese independence", similar to the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Taiwanese_cross-Strait_relations_referendum
wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Taiwanese_United_Nations_membership_referendum
and probably as obvious as the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum
being held during the next ten years, possibly even as early as next year!
And unless the rules change (or have changed), at least half of all eligible voters have to bother to vote, in order for the referendum result to be valid; so if half of all eligible voters are DPP voters and they all bother to vote, then there's no need for other eligible voters to vote, right?
Furthermore, during the past two or three years, there seems to be bipartisan support in the USA for the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Travel_Act
wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Allies_International_Protection_and_Enhancement_Initiative_Act ("TAIPEI Act")
so if the Republicans and Donald Trump win the US elections later this year (in November), then in my opinion, the chance of Taiwan "formally" becoming an "independent" country would significantly increase, even though in reality, Taiwan has been, in my opinion again, a de facto:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Protectorate
of Japan from 1895 to 1945 and of the USA since 1945, similar to Singapore since 1965!
And once again, I am also predicting that the PLA will not try to invade Taiwan, but my most important reason is different from yours, i.e. I do not believe that the PRC government has so far not bothered to order the PLA to invade Taiwan just because the Taiwanese/ROC government (whether it's controlled by the KMT or DPP) has so far refrained from "formally" saying/publishing a bunch of words that seem to mean that Taiwan is an "independent" country.
What I do believe is that the:
simply because it knows very well that:wikipedia.org/wiki/Government of the People's Republic of China
will not dare to try invading Taiwan in the first place!
if the US provides enough military support, then according to what you yourself said in another thread a few weeks ago:
sammyboy.com/threads/china-would-beat-us-in-war.285585/post-3121434
implying that not only would the PLA fail to invade Taiwan, the PLA would also lose the overall war, resulting in:If it happens, it will be a good fight with the USA winning but incurring great losses.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Mainland_China
or at least:
wikipedia.org/wiki/East_China
being successfully invaded by Taiwanese and US soldiers, right?
Come to think of it, if the PRC government is really that scared, then that would mean that even if Taiwan were to "formally" declare "independence", the PLA would STILL NOT dare to try invading Taiwan!
Finally, as the saying goes:
wiktionary.org/wiki/actions_speak_louder_than_words
Therefore, the actions by both the US and Taiwanese/ROC governments so far and the lack of actions by the PRC government have proven that Taiwan has never truly been a:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Province of the People's Republic of China
wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan Province, People's Republic of China
right?
How can the PRC government be making sense when it claims Taiwan to be "part of its territory" when it has never governed it?
It would make sense if it claims, for example:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing
or:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebei
to be "part of its territory".
But if it can make sense by claiming Taiwan to be "part of its territory" when it has never governed it, then you or I can also make sense by claiming the entire Earth to be part of your or my territory, right?
Dear @jw5, many belated thanks for finally agreeing (My fourth reason why the PLA will not invade Taiwan is that they are concerned other countries including the USA will intervene in time and cause them to fail in their attempt.
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sammyboy.com/posts/3107355
Dear @Bad New Brown, I agree with the above post of yours from another thread!President Tsai and her DPP administration is the best
Dear @jw5, many belated thanks for posting your 5th reason for your prediction that the PLA will not invade Taiwan!I have been thinking of more reasons, and here is the 5th.
My 5th reason why PLA will not invade Taiwan is related to your point below. PRC can make sense by claiming Taiwan to be part of its territory on the basis that the KMT lost the civil war and escaped to an island, for which PRC now claims ownership of both the island and the people. Conversely, Taiwan can also claim to be independent, on the basis that the civil war was never legal in the first place, and the people on Taiwan island should have right to determine their own fate and governance. Both these claims are not watertight in their argument, hence there is a huge doubt to the validity of either claim, which means that the status quo continues.
But once again, in my humble opinion, because:
I'm afraid that the only way the PRC government can make sense is IF your second prediction:
sammyboy.com/posts/3133845
comes true!Couple Of Predictions:
1. PLA will not invade Taiwan (for a variety of reasons).
2. If for some reason, (e.g. Taiwan formally declares independence), PLA invades Taiwan, they will succeed (because of their strength and proximity).
There were actually 2 different questions:
1. Will PLA invade Taiwan?
2. If PLA invade Taiwan, will they succeed?
My 5th reason was for question 1.
1. Will PLA invade Taiwan?
2. If PLA invade Taiwan, will they succeed?
My 5th reason was for question 1.
Dear @jw5, many belated thanks for posting your 5th reason for your prediction that the PLA will not invade Taiwan!
But once again, in my humble opinion, because:
I'm afraid that the only way the PRC government can make sense is IF your second prediction:
sammyboy.com/posts/3133845
comes true!
Dear @glockman, many belated thanks for posting that interesting YouTube video!
The YouTube channel, "Defense Updates", that it comes from:
youtube.com/channel/UCKNCbBWiMiXBVXUmUuu_dsQ/videos
also has hundreds of other interesting videos, such as:
youtube.com/watch?v=E2vp2urM1FQ
"TOP 5 WEAPONS OF TAIWAN THAT CHINA WOULD BE REALLY WORRIED ABOUT!"
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Dear @jw5, for the eleventh time, many belated thanks for bumping up my thread again the day before yesterday, even though I'm not sure if you're implying that I misunderstood you...There were actually 2 different questions:
1. Will PLA invade Taiwan?
2. If PLA invade Taiwan, will they succeed?
My 5th reason was for question 1.
Anyway, I did not misunderstand you, which is why I thanked you:
right?...for posting your 5th reason for your prediction that the PLA will not invade Taiwan!
I quoted your second prediction:
because I was changing the subject by focusing on the first part of your 5th reason for your first prediction; and the situation in your second prediction happened to be the only situation that would, in my opinion again, cause the PRC government to make sense whenever it claims Taiwan to be "part of its territory".2. If for some reason, (e.g. Taiwan formally declares independence), PLA invades Taiwan, they will succeed (because of their strength and proximity).
If you had never posted your second prediction, I would have simply posted something similar, instead of quoting your post!
And just in case you have forgotten, it was only your second prediction that I actually asked for roughly two weeks ago:
sammyboy.com/posts/3133279
I did not ask for your first prediction because I considered it to be significantly less important, which is why I said:In my question:
I used the word, "will", not "can", right?If, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally dare to try invading Taiwan, will the PLA succeed or fail?
I agree with our dear @eatshitndie that the PLA will fail; but do you agree with us?
In other words, I was asking you to predict the actual result, not tell me one of the possible results!
sammyboy.com/posts/3131804
but I did not mind you adding your first prediction, and I even kept asking you to post your reasons for it!to be as realistic as possible, I would say that "as long as Taiwan does not formally announce independence", the chance of the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/People's Liberation Army
TRYING to invade Taiwan would be very low, but NOT zero!
Similarly, even if Taiwan "formally" announces "independence", the chance of the PLA TRYING to invade Taiwan would be much higher, but NOT 100%!
Therefore, in my humble opinion, since it is possible for the PLA to TRY invading Taiwan at any time everyday, whether or not Taiwan "formally" announces "independence", the far more important question should be:
If, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally dare to try invading Taiwan, will the PLA succeed or fail?
I agree with our dear @eatshitndie that the PLA will fail; but do you agree with us?
Finally, it seems to me that your fourth reason for your first prediction that the PLA will not invade Taiwan:
is contradicting your second prediction that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan if, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally decide/dare to try to invade it... or have you changed your mind?My fourth reason why the PLA will not invade Taiwan is that they are concerned other countries including the USA will intervene in time and cause them to fail in their attempt.
Or if you're still predicting that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan, why would you also still think that the PLA "are concerned other countries including the USA will intervene in time and cause them to fail in their attempt"?
Being concerned that they may not be successful in doing something, does not mean that they will not be successful if they actually do it.
Finally, it seems to me that your fourth reason for your first prediction that the PLA will not invade Taiwan:
is contradicting your second prediction that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan if, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally decide/dare to try to invade it... or have you changed your mind?
Or if you're still predicting that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan, why would you also still think that the PLA "are concerned other countries including the USA will intervene in time and cause them to fail in their attempt"?
Here's another interesting video from the above YouTube channel:Dear @glockman, many belated thanks for posting that interesting YouTube video!
The YouTube channel, "Defense Updates", that it comes from:
youtube.com/channel/UCKNCbBWiMiXBVXUmUuu_dsQ/videos
also has hundreds of other interesting videos, such as:
youtube.com/watch?v=E2vp2urM1FQ
"TOP 5 WEAPONS OF TAIWAN THAT CHINA WOULD BE REALLY WORRIED ABOUT!"
youtube.com/watch?v=ef7I-7kUZQU
"USS RUSSELL MOVED INTO TAIWAN STRAIT - THIS TIME CHINA DIDN’T FALSELY CLAIM OF EXPELLING U.S WARSHIP"
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if you're still predicting that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan, why would you also still think that the PLA "are concerned other countries including the USA will intervene in time and cause them to fail in their attempt"?
Dear @jw5, for the twelfth time, many belated thanks for bumping up my thread again the day before yesterday by trying to explain that there's no contradiction, even though roughly a month ago, in another thread, you said:Being concerned that they may not be successful in doing something, does not mean that they will not be successful if they actually do it.
sammyboy.com/threads/china-would-beat-us-in-war.285585/post-3121434
implying that not only would the PLA fail to invade Taiwan, the PLA would also lose the overall war, resulting in:If it happens, it will be a good fight with the USA winning but incurring great losses.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Mainland_China
or at least some of the coastal provinces in:
wikipedia.org/wiki/East_China
wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China
being successfully invaded by Taiwanese and US (and maybe even Japanese) soldiers, right?
My prediction was that in a war between US and China, US would win but incur great losses. This prediction was not about a war between Taiwan and China.
According to:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_Suisse
wikipedia.org/wiki/Military#Capability_development
web.archive.org/web/20180215235711/http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=EE7A6A5D-D9D5-6204-E9E6BB426B47D054
(Page 41 of the pdf file)
Considering "only conventional war capabilities" and not counting nuclear weapons, the "Final military strength scores" of:
China = "0.79"
Japan = "0.72"
Taiwan = "0.32"
Many belated thanks, in chronological order, to:Dear @glockman, many belated thanks for being the only sammyboy.com member so far who has bothered to like the above post of mine, since I started my thread a month ago!
@Peiweh
@nightsafari
for joining @glockman in liking that post of mine!
Dear @jw5, for the thirteenth time, many belated thanks for bumping up my thread again the day before yesterday by finally clarifying, after nearly three weeks since I posted the following reply:My prediction was that in a war between US and China, US would win but incur great losses. This prediction was not about a war between Taiwan and China.
sammyboy.com/posts/3135051
to your second prediction:
that, unless I've misunderstood you, you're also implying that you're also predicting that Taiwan would receive ZERO military support from the:2. If for some reason, (e.g. Taiwan formally declares independence), PLA invades Taiwan, they will succeed (because of their strength and proximity).
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces
If I've misunderstood you, may I ask you to post a more detailed clarification, please?
Or are you implying that even if Taiwan were to receive some or even MAXIMUM military support from the US, you would:
1. still consider the war to be "between Taiwan and China" and not "between US and China";
2. and, more importantly, still predict that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan if, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally decide/dare to try to invade it?
By the way, since you dare to use the word, "predict" (and not "guess", let alone "prefer"!
), may I also ask, is it safe for me to assume that you mean that you are more than 50% sure or even at least 69% sure?
Couple Of Points:
1. It is very difficult to predict how much military support Taiwan will receive from USA. I don't think even USA, Taiwan or China can predict this.
2. Even if Taiwan were to receive some military support from USA, I would still consider the war to be between Taiwan and China.
1. It is very difficult to predict how much military support Taiwan will receive from USA. I don't think even USA, Taiwan or China can predict this.
2. Even if Taiwan were to receive some military support from USA, I would still consider the war to be between Taiwan and China.
Dear @jw5, for the thirteenth time, many belated thanks for bumping up my thread again the day before yesterday by finally clarifying, after nearly three weeks since I posted the following reply:
sammyboy.com/posts/3135051
to your second prediction:
that, unless I've misunderstood you, you're also implying that you're also predicting that Taiwan would receive ZERO military support from the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces
If I've misunderstood you, may I ask you to post a more detailed clarification, please?
Or are you implying that even if Taiwan were to receive some or even MAXIMUM military support from the US, you would:
1. still consider the war to be "between Taiwan and China" and not "between US and China";
2. and, more importantly, still predict that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan if, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally decide/dare to try to invade it?
By the way, since you dare to use the word, "predict" (and not "guess", let alone "prefer"!
Also, for those of you who are not aware, Japan is actually a "De facto nuclear state":
wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program#De_facto_nuclear_state
wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Option
("Nuclear latency or a nuclear threshold state is the condition of a country possessing the technology to quickly build nuclear weapons, without having actually yet done so. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, this is sometimes called the "Japan Option" (as a work-around to the treaty), as Japan is considered a "paranuclear" state, being a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a nuclear weapon quickly, or as it is sometimes called "being one screwdriver's turn" from the bomb, as Japan is considered to have the materials, expertise and technical capacity to make a nuclear bomb at will.")
Many belated thanks also to @nightsafari for liking the above two posts of mine!
Dear @jw5, for the fourteenth time, many belated thanks for bumping up my thread again the day before yesterday by posting a slightly more detailed clarification!Couple Of Points:
1. It is very difficult to predict how much military support Taiwan will receive from USA. I don't think even USA, Taiwan or China can predict this.
2. Even if Taiwan were to receive some military support from USA, I would still consider the war to be between Taiwan and China.
But I'm afraid it's not clear enough (at least for me)!
May I ask you to also answer the second part of my second question, i.e. if Taiwan were to receive:
would you:
Or in other words, in your opinion, what is the minimum percentage (such as a simple majority of 51%?1. still consider the war to be "between Taiwan and China" and not "between US and China";
2. and, more importantly, still predict that the PLA will successfully invade Taiwan if, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally decide/dare to try to invade it?
) of the full strength (i.e. personnel, weapons, warships, aircraft, drones, etc.) of the:wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces
that Taiwan must receive, in order for you to:
1. finally consider the war to be "between US and China" (and not just "between Taiwan and China"), which would, therefore, result in:
2. and also, finally predict that the PLA will fail to invade Taiwan if, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally decide/dare to try to invade it?...a good fight with the USA winning but incurring great losses.
And please note that I'm not asking you to predict the actual percentage of the US military support that Taiwan will actually receive because I understand that:
It is very difficult to predict how much military support Taiwan will receive from USA. I don't think even USA, Taiwan or China can predict this.
In my opinion, if at least roughly one-quarter of the US Armed Forces were to be deployed, I would consider the war to be "between US and China" (and not just "between Taiwan and China"), just like the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_War
during the first half of the 1940s was not just between China and Japan, but also between the US and Japan, right?
Before we make any more predictions, I just watched a Taiwan talk show where it was revealed John Bolton claimed Donald Trump compared Taiwan to the tip of a pen and compared China to a desk.
Dear @jw5, for the fourteenth time, many belated thanks for bumping up my thread again the day before yesterday by posting a slightly more detailed clarification!
But I'm afraid it's not clear enough (at least for me)!
May I ask you to also answer the second part of my second question, i.e. if Taiwan were to receive:
would you:
Or in other words, in your opinion, what is the minimum percentage (such as a simple majority of 51%?
wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces
that Taiwan must receive, in order for you to:
1. finally consider the war to be "between US and China" (and not just "between Taiwan and China"), which would, therefore, result in:
2. and also, finally predict that the PLA will fail to invade Taiwan if, because of whatever reason, the PLA were to finally decide/dare to try to invade it?
And please note that I'm not asking you to predict the actual percentage of the US military support that Taiwan will actually receive because I understand that:
In my opinion, if at least roughly one-quarter of the US Armed Forces were to be deployed, I would consider the war to be "between US and China" (and not just "between Taiwan and China"), just like the:
wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_War
during the first half of the 1940s was not just between China and Japan, but also between the US and Japan, right?
Dear @Leongsam, many thanks again for gracing another humble thread of mine and for voting in the poll and even agreeing with me and Credit Suisse!
Dear @eatshitndie, many thanks to you too for gracing another humble thread of mine and for voting in the poll and even agreeing with me and Credit Suisse!
Many belated thanks also to:
@glockman
@nightsafari
@gingerlyn
@3_M
for voting in the poll and even agreeing with me and Credit Suisse!
Many belated thanks also to @Einstein for voting in the poll and even agreeing with me and Credit Suisse!
Dear @Sideswipe, many belated thanks to you too for voting in the poll and even agreeing with me and Credit Suisse!
Many belated thanks also to:Dear @Peiweh-sama, many thanks to you too for:
1. gracing my humble thread with your words of wisdom,
2. liking four of my posts in this thread,
3. and finally, voting in the poll and even agreeing with me and Credit Suisse
yesterday!
@shockshiok
@blackmondy
@leeisphtui
for voting in the poll and even agreeing with me and Credit Suisse!