Why PAP will continue to rule until 2030

[jw5]

So what?

Forget about elections? Don't vote? Vote PAP?

Don't let the manipulative threadstarter continue with his cunning tricks.

Just continue voting opposition until PAP become the opposition. Then re-evaluate your options again.

 

[jw5]

Scroobal

Stop trying to manipulate and deceive forummers with such threads.

Jenny Wong. scroobal is looking for intellectuals in his threads. Not homosexuals. Stop confusing yourself!....LOL

 

[jw5]

Ok Scroobal, please proceed with this thread for discussion purposes with other intellectuals, who have not had their identities exposed, unlike you.

Let me reiterate. For intellectuals not homosexuals. This where I stop. I cannot, must not derail his noble intent when starting threads. Now come the fuck out of the thread with you me Jenny you rectum for a vagina!....LOL

 

[GoldenPeriod]

Even without gerry mandering, FPTP system favours incumbents.... You need a very large swing....It is almost impossible.

 

[mojito]

Even without gerry mandering, FPTP system favours incumbents.... You need a very large swing....It is almost impossible.

Proportional representation would be a better alternative, but how can we convince sinkies their MPs are not there to run town councils and make sure the trash gets cleared every morning?

 

[tanwahp]

There has been a number of posts expressing the likelihood that PAP will lose the Government soon or in the near future. Both are not possible unless the Party splits or implodes.

1) PAP currently holds 80. It won 81 seats in GE2011 but lost one in a By-election. During GE2011. there was 26 contests, Tanjong Pagar was a walkover. It won 24 contests (SMC plusGRC). Those are powerful numbers.

2) The opposition must take 37 more seats from the PAP to remove its minority. Is that a possibility

3) Even if PAP only secures 43 seats, just missing the majority, can the Opposition unify to form a coalition or will the PAP end up running a minority Govt.

So we are looking at big numbers to see change and are there enough viable parties and candidates to mount the challenge.

Not entirely impossible. While the difference in seats is big, the percentages aren't. There were many marginal wins in the last GE. Alex Au calculated that just a 5% swing and the PAP would lose 25% of its seats and its 2/3rds majority. The beauty of first-past-the-post.

 

[wMulew]

PAP will continue to rule because they have done a good job. Their record since GE2011 speaks for itself. Only Opposition supporting retards will think otherwise


Here is an excellent post from HWZ

PAP vs WP since 2011

Promise to listen more to people - Start National Conversation and implement policies according to Conversation results. More prove that they listen are incidents which took a different course of action like during the recent like LGBT uproar on library incident

Promise to make it easier to get BTO and reduce home prices - Mass produce new BTO flats, multiple cooling measures which seem to be working

Promise to help the poor and aged - Pioneer package. Change qualifying criteria for poor to income for each individual in household vs total household income allowing more families to qualify for government welfare

Promise to Reduce FT intake - Increase quota, reduce inflow of FT to the point where Low Thia Kiang came out to scold government on FT issue

Promise to improve public transportation - roll out $1.1B scheme to improve current infrastructure

Promise to reduce healthcare cost - Medishield Life

So far all GE2011 promises are being kept

What about WP?

Promise to slap govt if they fall asleep - Scold Government when they reduce Foreigner quota. Hawkers ask government to slap them when they try to charge money for FOC services

Promise to be a check and balance on government - Give their good friend company multi million dollar contracts without tender. $20M in items missing from their accounts

Promise to be voice of people - MIA from Parliament

 

[Satyr]

We need a Gorbachev in the PAP ranks to introduce Presristoika and Glasnost!

Maybe Lao Goh can fit the bill?

Lao Goh is probably smarter than he looks and sounds . But that is the problem . Frankly who would follow him ?
Zero charisma . Only as a last resort maybe.

 

[3_M]

You don't need them to lose. Just deprive them of their two thirds and that might wake them up.
Singaporeans shouldn't be so concerned who rules so long as they take care of Singaporeans. If it is a reformed PAP, why not ?

Many people have this misconception that having deny them 2/3 majority will stop govt from implementing unpopular policies. No, it not the case.

In no way it going to stop the ruling party from increasing GST to 10%, increase your water bill or increase population to 10m. If there is any influence to stop govt from implementing these unpopular policies, it works indirectly for the ruling party will be more wary that any unpopular policies will probably shave a few percentage of support away. This would be very dangerous if PAP only command say 42 out of 80 seats.

 

[3_M]

My sense is that PAP has already accepted that it will no longer command a big majority and will follow the norm that we see in western democracies where the party forming the Govt just garnered over 50% of the votes or they form a coalition. Both the UK and OZ are Coalition Government.

Govt have instructed all media outlets to spread govt messages through various means. If u have heard within the circles, PM himself took a personal interests in his propaganda campaign by making a few unannounced visits to mediacorpse to get an update (and I am sure he does the same for SPH). I heard there is going to be one more visit soon maybe next month.

A tell tale sign that the coming election is going to be a tough one.

 

[tanwahp]

Many people have this misconception that having deny them 2/3 majority will stop govt from implementing unpopular policies. No, it not the case.

In no way it going to stop the ruling party from increasing GST to 10%, increase your water bill or increase population to 10m. If there is any influence to stop govt from implementing these unpopular policies, it works indirectly for the ruling party will be more wary that any unpopular policies will probably shave a few percentage of support away. This would be very dangerous if PAP only command say 42 out of 80 seats.

In a way, you are right because 2/3 majority is to block bills only. They are laws on paper which most are good. The implementation of the policies by the civil service is the problem and most are bad.

The only way is to take the risk to replace the ruling party totally. Even 42 out of 80 doesn't change the fundamentals of the PAP.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Not entirely impossible. While the difference in seats is big, the percentages aren't. There were many marginal wins in the last GE. Alex Au calculated that just a 5% swing and the PAP would lose 25% of its seats and its 2/3rds majority. The beauty of first-past-the-post.

Agree with Alex Au's calculations. That's the beauty of the FPTP system, if you wish to deal an stunning blow to the incumbent. Macham like a titration curve - at first the pH doesn't change much and then suddenly you add a few more drops and WHAM!

2021 will be the watershed election. Many disgruntled seniors will be voting against the PAP because of the CPF issue.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Many people have this misconception that having deny them 2/3 majority will stop govt from implementing unpopular policies. No, it not the case.

In no way it going to stop the ruling party from increasing GST to 10%, increase your water bill or increase population to 10m. If there is any influence to stop govt from implementing these unpopular policies, it works indirectly for the ruling party will be more wary that any unpopular policies will probably shave a few percentage of support away. This would be very dangerous if PAP only command say 42 out of 80 seats.

The 2/3 majority would be a psychological turning point. The incumbent will want to stem further losses and will move to address the issues, assuming it is not completely paralysed by lack of leadership.

If PAP doesn't lose the 2/3 majority, it will remain complacent and less chance of it getting rid of its entrenched dogma.

 

[3_M]

The 2/3 majority would be a psychological turning point. The incumbent will want to stem further losses and will move to address the issues, assuming it is not completely paralysed by lack of leadership.

If PAP doesn't lose the 2/3 majority, it will remain complacent and less chance of it getting rid of its entrenched dogma.

We can just take a leaf from Malaysia when the opposition first deny BN the 2/3 majority in the previous 2 elections. It doesn't stop the govt from reducing various subsidies or abolish NEP.

I suspect it not going to change much till we reduce PAP winning margin to near 50% mark. Right now a 60% score for PAP in the last GE is still an overwhelming victory judging by any democratic standard. PAP has enough buffer to cushion the impact of any unpopular policies and they believe it can gained back lost support by dishing out goodies when election draws near.

Dumbfuck opposition supporters who thinks opposition is going to change anything by speaking up or debating in parliament are sadly missing the point. The key still lies in reducing the number of seats PAP has to the extend they need to think twice when introducing any bill.

 

[Agoraphobic]

At the current rate of development, the PAP will still hold its position for a long time to come and will only lose votes where the opposition field convincing candidates. I say this because I do not see the opposition parties coming up with proposals or alternative plans for governing the country. The votes they win are from people who have become dissatisfied with the ruling party and select the lesser of two evils. If the other parties wish to gain a better position to be considered as an alternative government, they should begin making those plans and put them into a vision for the voters to consider. The last few decades was easier and more straightforward for the nation to progress - just do what the more developed countries are doing, at a cheaper cost. Now that Singapore has progressed to a level where she has come into new ground, some actions will be new and there is no one to follow, that's why the current leadership is somewhat lost and groping. So, this is the time for the opposition to come up with fresh proposals to take the country into as the PAP does not have the answers and the old man's days are over.

As an ex-Singaporean, I'd say rethink the current drift towards Mandarin and sway towards increased use of Bahasa. Singapore is at the heart of the Malay archipelago and the secular attitudes in Singapore can pave the way for Asian culture in an area of growth in South-East Asia. There is a big enough population (and market) in the region and Peesai still has the edge in technology and skill. It is better than playing second fiddle to Yankees or Ah Tiongland.

Cheers!

 

[scroobal]

In essence the PAP has a huge buffer in terms of seats. The GRCs provide a level of stickiness that favours them. We all know that GRC is a political device to retain seat for the PAP and nothing else. Aljunied surmounted and I reckon East Coast but you need some quality candidates as well.

Voters are fed up but they tend to be cautious and they will start comparing candidates and this is where we tend to lose the plot.

From all your posts, you don't seem to understand the PAP let alone the general population of Sinkie who make up the middle and lower income group.

There is a saying " When push becomes shove" then you will see what is the reaction of the folks who got the shove, continuously.

Obviously in real life, you are a coward. Put you in JB and see when you kenna robbed and whacked what your reaction is.

I bet 101%, you will kpkb about it, afterall the incident is all over, bearing the bruises you so deserved! LoL

 

[scroobal]

Yes on both counts. The PAP has successfully tied Town Councils to MPs and WP has also helped institutionalised it. It is a lost cause going down that path.

Proportional representation would be a better alternative, but how can we convince sinkies their MPs are not there to run town councils and make sure the trash gets cleared every morning?

 

[hofmann]

Not entirely impossible. While the difference in seats is big, the percentages aren't. There were many marginal wins in the last GE. Alex Au calculated that just a 5% swing and the PAP would lose 25% of its seats and its 2/3rds majority. The beauty of first-past-the-post.

that would explain the recent splurge on the pioneer package. they've secured that 5% with the older folks.

 

[scroobal]

You will see that in US and Westminster democracies, the key factor is an entrenched 2 party systems, both of whom are strong and genuine alternatives to votes. It also explains why the winning margins are thin. Singapore does not enjoy that position. PAP does not have to worry about dropping all the way to 51%. Even with that drastic drop they will continues to hold 65 seat comfortably for a long while. The 5% is based on the a good team that WP has. The diminishing marginal returns will quickly kick in.

To TFBH's point - they will take out their strongest contender by pulling other opposition candidates even if they have a clear and comfortable majority to muddy the waters and signal to Singaporeans that their main contender is not going to get an easy ride.

Not entirely impossible. While the difference in seats is big, the percentages aren't. There were many marginal wins in the last GE. Alex Au calculated that just a 5% swing and the PAP would lose 25% of its seats and its 2/3rds majority. The beauty of first-past-the-post.

 

[kingrant]

Scroobal,

I find it very interesting, and I seek to understand, why you set the year as 2030. Conversely, I may also ask: why do you think that after 2030, the PAP will not rule? Is there a basis for your choice of year. That's 15 years post-GE2015. So you think the PAP will only rule for another 3 GEs (excl. the next one) ?

Or is it just a convenient date into the future, long enough to make some crystal ball gazing and short enough to be within our life span (of the pioneer gen?) to have some meaningful expectations?

There has been a number of posts expressing the likelihood that PAP will lose the Government soon or in the near future. Both are not possible unless the Party splits or implodes.

1) PAP currently holds 80. It won 81 seats in GE2011 but lost one in a By-election. During GE2011. there was 26 contests, Tanjong Pagar was a walkover. It won 24 contests (SMC plusGRC). Those are powerful numbers.

2) The opposition must take 37 more seats from the PAP to remove its minority. Is that a possibility

3) Even if PAP only secures 43 seats, just missing the majority, can the Opposition unify to form a coalition or will the PAP end up running a minority Govt.

So we are looking at big numbers to see change and are there enough viable parties and candidates to mount the challenge.