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https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/20...buts-eugene-tans-claims-on-boundaries-review/
A TikTok user rebutted Eugene Tan’s remarks on Singapore’s electoral boundaries, highlighting disparities in elector-to-MP ratios, possible partisan bias, and irregular district shapes. She argued that these patterns raise concerns about fairness and called for greater transparency in the EBRC process.
SINGAPORE: A TikTok user has rebutted Associate Professor Eugene Tan’s recent remarks on the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC), particularly his claim that “there have never really been any evidence” of unfair practices in the redrawing of electoral boundaries.
Speaking to Mothership, Eugene Tan explained that even if the EBRC were independent of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), concerns about impartiality would likely remain.
He argued that any committee responsible for redrawing electoral boundaries must still be appointed by someone — and in Singapore’s context, that authority ultimately rests with the Prime Minister.
As long as the Prime Minister makes these appointments, he said, accusations of bias are inevitable.
He noted that while accusations of gerrymandering are common, “there have never really been any evidence that is put forth.”
In response, a TikTok user, Jo, released a six-minute video disputing Tan’s remarks, using data visualisation to argue that “there is a lot of concrete evidence that there is opacity in our electoral system.”
Jo presented three key arguments: inconsistencies in the elector-to-MP ratio, potential partisan bias, and the questionable compactness of electoral districts.
She plotted the distribution of this ratio across electoral districts and found significant discrepancies.
While the reported mean ratio is 28,384 electors per MP, the actual range varies widely from 22,000 to 33,000 — a 51% difference between the smallest and largest districts.
A striking example was the comparison between Marine Parade–Braddell Heights GRC and Sengkang GRC, where the data suggests ambiguity in whether these constituencies should have four or five MPs.
Jo noted that the decision-making process behind such allocations remains opaque, as the EBRC white paper does not explain these discrepancies.
Furthermore, she pointed out that opposition-held constituencies tend to have higher elector-to-MP ratios, meaning that their MPs serve a larger number of residents compared to those in ruling party strongholds.
This could result in unequal access to resources and parliamentary representation.
Ideally, these figures should be proportional, ensuring that Parliament accurately reflects voter sentiment.
However, Jo highlighted a visible trend where ruling party strongholds tend to have lower elector-to-MP ratios, potentially giving them an advantage in securing more parliamentary seats.
While she acknowledged that the data alone does not conclusively prove intentional bias, she argued that the observed patterns warrant closer scrutiny and greater transparency.
Using the Polsby-Popper Score, a widely accepted political science metric, she evaluated the shape and boundaries of Singapore’s electoral districts.
Her analysis revealed that many constituencies scored poorly on compactness, with Marine Parade–Braddell Heights GRC receiving a particularly low score of 0.25 out of 1.
Jo questioned the rationale behind irregularly shaped districts, such as those with sections that appear to “jut out” unnaturally, and noted that the EBRC white paper does not provide explanations for these spatial decisions.
Concluding her video, Jo cited a 2005 publication by Eugene Tan, which discussed how electoral and spatial integration efforts are often undermined by the ruling party’s interest in maintaining political dominance.
She emphasised that rather than dismissing concerns as “baseless” or “anti-PAP,” there should be greater transparency in the electoral process.
In that earlier video, she examined whether all votes in Singapore hold equal value, focusing on the EBRC’s stated aim of maintaining a consistent elector-to-MP ratio.
While the average number of electors per MP is reported as 28,384, Jo argued that averages conceal key disparities.
Using a histogram, she showed that most constituencies deviate significantly, with elector-to-MP ratios ranging from 22,000 to over 33,000 — a 51% gap between the smallest and largest districts.
She pointed out that residents in Kebun Baru, Marymount, and Mountbatten enjoy better representation, while those in West Coast, Jurong, Ang Mo Kio, and Bukit Panjang — which had the highest ratio — may be underserved.
Jo also highlighted the case of Marine Parade–Braddell Heights GRC and Sengkang GRC. Despite a 5,000-voter difference, the former received five MPs while the latter got four.
Based on her calculations, both could have had either number, suggesting that such decisions may be arbitrary.
She argued for a narrower distribution of elector-to-MP ratios to reduce ambiguity and noted that with a statistician on the EBRC board, such inconsistencies should have been better addressed.
“Concrete evidence of opacity”: TikTok user rebuts Eugene Tan’s claims on boundaries review
A TikTok user rebutted Eugene Tan’s remarks on Singapore’s electoral boundaries, highlighting disparities in elector-to-MP ratios, possible partisan bias, and irregular district shapes. She argued that these patterns raise concerns about fairness and called for greater transparency in the EBRC process.
SINGAPORE: A TikTok user has rebutted Associate Professor Eugene Tan’s recent remarks on the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC), particularly his claim that “there have never really been any evidence” of unfair practices in the redrawing of electoral boundaries.
Speaking to Mothership, Eugene Tan explained that even if the EBRC were independent of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), concerns about impartiality would likely remain.
He argued that any committee responsible for redrawing electoral boundaries must still be appointed by someone — and in Singapore’s context, that authority ultimately rests with the Prime Minister.
As long as the Prime Minister makes these appointments, he said, accusations of bias are inevitable.
He noted that while accusations of gerrymandering are common, “there have never really been any evidence that is put forth.”
In response, a TikTok user, Jo, released a six-minute video disputing Tan’s remarks, using data visualisation to argue that “there is a lot of concrete evidence that there is opacity in our electoral system.”
Jo presented three key arguments: inconsistencies in the elector-to-MP ratio, potential partisan bias, and the questionable compactness of electoral districts.
Uneven Elector-to-MP Ratio
Jo first analysed the EBRC’s approach to maintaining the elector-to-MP ratio, a key metric in ensuring fair representation.She plotted the distribution of this ratio across electoral districts and found significant discrepancies.
While the reported mean ratio is 28,384 electors per MP, the actual range varies widely from 22,000 to 33,000 — a 51% difference between the smallest and largest districts.
A striking example was the comparison between Marine Parade–Braddell Heights GRC and Sengkang GRC, where the data suggests ambiguity in whether these constituencies should have four or five MPs.
Jo noted that the decision-making process behind such allocations remains opaque, as the EBRC white paper does not explain these discrepancies.
Furthermore, she pointed out that opposition-held constituencies tend to have higher elector-to-MP ratios, meaning that their MPs serve a larger number of residents compared to those in ruling party strongholds.
This could result in unequal access to resources and parliamentary representation.
Partisan Symmetry and Seat Distribution
The second point of contention was the concept of partisan symmetry — the balance between popular vote share and actual parliamentary seats won.Ideally, these figures should be proportional, ensuring that Parliament accurately reflects voter sentiment.
However, Jo highlighted a visible trend where ruling party strongholds tend to have lower elector-to-MP ratios, potentially giving them an advantage in securing more parliamentary seats.
While she acknowledged that the data alone does not conclusively prove intentional bias, she argued that the observed patterns warrant closer scrutiny and greater transparency.
Questionable Electoral District Compactness
Jo also examined the compactness of electoral districts, an important criterion in fair constituency mapping.Using the Polsby-Popper Score, a widely accepted political science metric, she evaluated the shape and boundaries of Singapore’s electoral districts.
Her analysis revealed that many constituencies scored poorly on compactness, with Marine Parade–Braddell Heights GRC receiving a particularly low score of 0.25 out of 1.
Jo questioned the rationale behind irregularly shaped districts, such as those with sections that appear to “jut out” unnaturally, and noted that the EBRC white paper does not provide explanations for these spatial decisions.
Concluding her video, Jo cited a 2005 publication by Eugene Tan, which discussed how electoral and spatial integration efforts are often undermined by the ruling party’s interest in maintaining political dominance.
She emphasised that rather than dismissing concerns as “baseless” or “anti-PAP,” there should be greater transparency in the electoral process.
TikTok Analysis Reveals Disparity in Voter Representation
Jo’s recent video builds on an earlier analysis she posted in response to the EBRC’s 2025 white paper, which had already questioned the fairness and consistency of Singapore’s redrawn electoral boundaries.In that earlier video, she examined whether all votes in Singapore hold equal value, focusing on the EBRC’s stated aim of maintaining a consistent elector-to-MP ratio.
While the average number of electors per MP is reported as 28,384, Jo argued that averages conceal key disparities.
Using a histogram, she showed that most constituencies deviate significantly, with elector-to-MP ratios ranging from 22,000 to over 33,000 — a 51% gap between the smallest and largest districts.
She pointed out that residents in Kebun Baru, Marymount, and Mountbatten enjoy better representation, while those in West Coast, Jurong, Ang Mo Kio, and Bukit Panjang — which had the highest ratio — may be underserved.
Jo also highlighted the case of Marine Parade–Braddell Heights GRC and Sengkang GRC. Despite a 5,000-voter difference, the former received five MPs while the latter got four.
Based on her calculations, both could have had either number, suggesting that such decisions may be arbitrary.
She argued for a narrower distribution of elector-to-MP ratios to reduce ambiguity and noted that with a statistician on the EBRC board, such inconsistencies should have been better addressed.
