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Divide & Conquer
- Thread starter zhihau
- Start date
LKY or whoever is the puppeteer behind the scenes has read the situation well - candidates and their supporters goad one another on, deluding themselves that their ace in the pocket will be make them the leader in the polls. Alternative media has allowed us to glimpse into the characters of the presidential candidates by now, two candidates are driven by ego and another by doubtful sincerity. As for TT, you dun need me to remind you he is sleeping with the plutocrats. All seem to have mutually exclusive support base (with the exception of TKL?), and swing voters are decidedly split between all candidates for various reasons. It may be voters' perception on character of candidates, candidates' stance on topical issues, or even expected salary.
It shows only one thing - that candidates have failed to embrace plurality and take into account political diversity in the ecosystem. Don't be surprised if TT and TKL achieve a higher vote count than you think - for the more one makes himself understood, the more one alienates. These two do not hold controversial opinions. You simply cannot hate or hurt an ethereal body which has no form.
It shows only one thing - that candidates have failed to embrace plurality and take into account political diversity in the ecosystem. Don't be surprised if TT and TKL achieve a higher vote count than you think - for the more one makes himself understood, the more one alienates. These two do not hold controversial opinions. You simply cannot hate or hurt an ethereal body which has no form.
I don't think there is any delusion about TT's winning chances. I think the EP affair is just one very expensive survey research to find out the true depth of the discontentment, without the benefits of distributing the peasants' own cash back into their pockets. Also, without the bells and whistles which are offered to the gullible peasants. Anything less than 45% is a disaster for PAP, even if TT wins with a 26% score. The results would also provide very good data for reviewing the boundary lines, and deciding which ones to be SMC and which are GRCs.
Still, three days is a long time in politics. Some fireworks from both sides can be expected in the next day or two.
Still, three days is a long time in politics. Some fireworks from both sides can be expected in the next day or two.
any thing more than 35% in a 4 cornered tussle is a comfortable win.
TT could well have some 25% secured from the hardcore supporters of the PAP.
ain't pretty no matter how I see it, the middle ground is confused at this moment & it's working to TT's advantage.
I'm curious about the relative size of the hardcore PAP pro-business, PAP economic captives, and moderate PAP socialist camps. The PAP itself is a shaky alliance of interests, and socialist leaders today have mostly been ejected from the grand old party.
Methinks 20% hardcore + captives for TT looks about right. PAP moderates (maybe 40%) will split between TT or TCB in favour of the latter.
30% is the absolute minimum threshold to clear to stand a chance of winning against TT.
Methinks 20% hardcore + captives for TT looks about right. PAP moderates (maybe 40%) will split between TT or TCB in favour of the latter.
30% is the absolute minimum threshold to clear to stand a chance of winning against TT.
looks definitely like a very close fight between the two Dr's.
winner goes home margin of about 5-10K votes only.
That is my personal view too. If TCB is able to get his message across, he stands a very good chance to win those votes that might otherwise go to TT.
I believe, the undecideds can be grouped into these 2 general groups:-
1. Vote for TT or TCB
2. Vote for TJS or TCB
And I believe these are still very large groups.
It is not a given that the bulk of hardcore PAP supporters will vote for TT. A sizeable portion prefer TCB who seems more "humble", and who left NS as a recalcitrant recruit. This is in sharp contrast to the disgraceful exposé about TT's sons' NS experience which mocks the rest of the populace.
TJS is likely to win the bulk of the hardcore opposition voters, who distrust the other 3 candidates tainted and tarred by their association with the PAP over the years. TJS may win enough votes from the swing voters to defeat TT and TCB, especially since this is not a GE but an election for someone to check the government and knock some sense into the Cabinet.
TCB may have divided the hardcore PAP votes sufficiently for TJS to win. But if TJS fails to win over at least a quarter of the moderates and the undecided voters, then it is a toss up between TT and TCB.
Someone mentioned this is not GE and no worries for the 60.1% sheep over upgrading or payback.
Believe a sizable protion of this 60.1% who lan lan voted for PAP in GE might be more willing to vote TJS TCB TKL now.
Believe a sizable protion of this 60.1% who lan lan voted for PAP in GE might be more willing to vote TJS TCB TKL now.
You'd be surprised how many people I know declared their support for TKL. They will never vote PAP cronies, not even the good doctor, yet they do not have the stomach to push the nuclear option, which is what they perceive TJS to be. *shakes head*
Move along. Nothing to see here.
Forget about all the talks of checks and balance, being independent etc.
This PE is nothing but an extension of GE and seen as a referendum on PAP. Hence the most important thing is about stopping TT . Just unite and vote the candidate who stand the best chance against TT.
This PE is nothing but an extension of GE and seen as a referendum on PAP. Hence the most important thing is about stopping TT . Just unite and vote the candidate who stand the best chance against TT.
conquered ... but divided! ...
Let us not discount the 40's group. They have a bigger say than the older ones who may not be so internet savvy. They do wield a lot of influence as to which candidate to vote as those in their 60's and above will listen more to their children and grandchildren. The post war baby boomers are now quite old and they will no longer vote as they did before. So let's see whether my prediction is right that TT's support has been significantly eroded during these past 10 years.
*sighs* unfun... looks like TT is winning
conquered ... but divided! ...
bro,
100% spot on, those sheep clearly & seriously divided. until the oppositions find common grounds, I can't see the light at the end of the tunnel even for the next GE
would we be seeing a repeat of this history in the Hougang By-Election?
no we see it in the pungool east By-Election
as of now, even as we see several parties announcing their interests in contesting, it could be a repeat of Anson. so let's see who's the H.S of Punggol East :p:p:p
then again, B.E is not even confirmed woh... wonder if there would be a possibility of GE in 2014
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