Although I am still hopeful that Workers' Party is targetting 33% or more seats from Parliament by 2016... this by facts is not possible.
If we analyze the entire situation, it'll be clear that the above hope will not be possible...
1. Electorate base of the segment age group 56 till oldest (mainly Pro-PAP, few percentage support Opposition) This age group segment, can be taken as an estimated 15% of Singapore's total Electorate Base. (Figures are just an assumption)
i. We have to understand that the above Electorate Segment is supportive of PAP, as they were the true beneficiaries of the PAP policies from 1960s till early 2000s... They have seen the changes of Singapore, from the Charlie Boomtown periods of late 1960s till end of 1990s, and they have seen Singapore change as a nation.
ii. These group of people have also fallen into the 1973 Stop at 2 Policy, and causing them to reproduce 2 or less, causing Singapore's replacement ratio to be fallen less than 2.1 (If I am not mistaken, Singapore's birth ratio is about 1.3 or less) --> Extending this ratio to today, if you look around your friends, most people will stop at 2, or only 1, some don't even want to have baby, or some don't even want to get married.
2. Next we analyze the the 36 to 55 age group, the Economic Pillars of Singapore. These group of people were born from 1956 to 1975. They have seen the growth of Singapore from the 1970s Charlie Boomtown period till 1997 Financial Crisis. I would believe this group of people would be around 45% of Singapore's total population...
This group of people would be perhaps 50% pro-PAP / 50% pro-Opposition, as generally speaking, this group of people are generally well travelled, open to global medias, and do not depend on State Media for their information gathering, research, and thinking. Most of these people have seen the information revolution since introductions of affordable computers in 1980s, and most of these people are able to use Internet.
3. Now we come to the most important segment, 21 to 35 age group electorate segment, the Y Generation, these people were born from 1976 - 1990, totally capable of Internet Communications. The NOW generation. There are information coming to them from all directions, and they are capable of managing global information, and they do have their own opinion, and their own thinking. (I would believe that this group of electorates consist of 20% or less, since there was a stop at 2 campaign in 1973 which was effective. This stop at 2 policy is so successful, that even with the encouragement of baby bonus, cannot reverse this anymore...)
i. From my analysis, the above age group would have a 80% Pro-Opposition / 20% Pro-PAP base.
So the remaining 20% of SGP population are the non-electorates, who are less than 21 as of 27th April 2011.
If we factor the possible NEW CITIZENS of 1 Million from Foreign Talents Importation Policies from 2011 till 2016, we have to analyze where these group of new electorates come from?
1. Investing SGD 1 Million to get instant citizenship (buying 999 years leasehold apartments) + families citizenship.
2. Permanent Residents from Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Myanmar, China, Philippines, Western Countries.
3. Conversion of the PR base to Citizenship after 5 years (of 3 years physically in Singapore, they can be Singaporeans)
So, on assumption that these New Citizens were granted within 2011 to 2016, there is an additional 1 Million new citizens who are supportive to the PAP, let's take the high average of 80% supportive to PAP, and 20% opposition.
I would assume that the New Citizens would belong to the 36 to 55 Group, as these are the reasons for their wealth, and their reasons of easy access to Citizenship, for they may be skilled.
Let's do a calculation. For easy calculation; 2.3 Million are 2011 Electorate Base for 2011
Weightage by percentage (15%/(15%+45%+20%)) for 56 & above [18.75% weightage] (80% Pro-PAP | 20% Oppo)
Weightage by percentage (45%/(15%+45%+20%)) for 36 to 55 [56.25% weightage] (50% Pro-PAP | 50% PAP)
Weightage by percentage (20%/(15%+45%+20%)) for 21 to 35 [25.7% weightage] (80% Pro-Oppo | 20% PAP)
What you can observe from the above is that, when you introduce 1 Million new Citizens of the 36 to 55 age group, who are just 80% pro-PAP, you will see that there are no way by 2016, the opposition will have 30 Seats.
Dear Electorates, go around your GRC / SMC, and take a good look at your neighbourhood, do you see alot of 999 years leasehold properties being built? If yes, you must ask yourself, are these properties built for true born and bred Singaporeans?
I tell you all, it is not for you! It is for foreign investors! Singaporeans cannot even afford HDB now, how can you even afford a million dollar Apartment? THINK THINK THINK!!!
We are facing Electorate Dilution!!!
