That's all fake news. Don't believe a word of it.
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Will Trump close the trade deal with Xi at G20 ?
- Thread starter Wunderfool
- Start date
Again get more of this
You can fill the whole page with rude icons but that does not alter the fact that Trump is kicking Xi's ass and Xi is now begging for mercy.
If a deal is not reached China's economy will collapse and it will be the end of the yellow peril.
What do you call a habitual liar ?
Ms. Carroll said the release in October 2016 of the “Access Hollywood” video in which Mr. Trump boasted of sexual assault to the television host Billy Bush was validation for her. CNN played the 2005 clip during Ms. Carroll’s appearance on Monday.
“It knocked me back; I felt relief,” Ms. Carroll said. “We have to change this culture of sexual violence.”
More than a dozen women have accused Mr. Trump of sexual misconduct that they said took place before he was elected president.
“It’s the same,” Ms. Carroll said. “He denies it. He turns it around. He attacks and then he threatens. I am sick of it. Think how many women have come forward. Nothing happens.”
In a statement on Friday, the president said he had never met Ms. Carroll, but the two were photographed together at a party in 1987 with Ms. Carroll’s former husband, John Johnson. Mr. Trump said on Saturday that the image was misleading.
There is NO DEAL, as Dotard is breaking EVERY DEAL REPEATED TO FURTHER BLACKMAIL EVERYONE.
China got to learn how to look further into future and solve the problem FOR ONCE & FOR ALL = FINISH OFF USA and STOP USA FROM STRUGGLING FURTHER!
Every "DEAL" you made with Bankrupted Beggar Dotard-land he used you as ATM once, and he will soon be out of $$$$ again and return again to the same ATM that WILL DISPENSE $$$$ to feed him!
STOP IMMEDIATELY! NO TALKS! JUST WAR!
China got to learn how to look further into future and solve the problem FOR ONCE & FOR ALL = FINISH OFF USA and STOP USA FROM STRUGGLING FURTHER!
Every "DEAL" you made with Bankrupted Beggar Dotard-land he used you as ATM once, and he will soon be out of $$$$ again and return again to the same ATM that WILL DISPENSE $$$$ to feed him!
STOP IMMEDIATELY! NO TALKS! JUST WAR!
My gut feeling is that Trump is afraid of war ... and his last minute pull out of the strike on Iran confirms my suspicion. He plays the game of brinkmanship like Kim and ISIS , but when the push comes to shove , he doesn't have the guts to press the button. Conversely, the 'rocket man' and the 'mad terrorist" even the merciless Russian President have more balls to launch missile attack when threatened.
Trump has a facade of aggressiveness, but he doesn't have the courage and conviction to execute what he says he will do because he doesn't know what he wants for the US in the long term. Everything he does is for the next 4 years of his presidency term... "That' s it folks.. it 's been hella of fun running this presidency, " That 's what he is going to say when his final term ends.
Trump has a facade of aggressiveness, but he doesn't have the courage and conviction to execute what he says he will do because he doesn't know what he wants for the US in the long term. Everything he does is for the next 4 years of his presidency term... "That' s it folks.. it 's been hella of fun running this presidency, " That 's what he is going to say when his final term ends.
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As usual it's the democrats using the same old feminist tactics to discredit Trump the same way they tried to deal with the Brett Kavanaugh nomination. Don't be hoodwinked by this rubbish.
Trump is bringing his country to desolation.
To quote Charles M Blow
" I am simply disgusted by what’s happening in America. My political differences with this president and his accomplices in Congress — and now on the Supreme Court — are only part of the reason. Indeed, those differences may now be the lesser reason, and that, for me, says a lot.
For me, the reason is that the country, or large segments of it, seems to be acquiescing to a particular form of evil, one that is pernicious and even playful, one in which the means of chipping away at our values and morals grow even stronger, graduating from tack hammer to standard hammer to sledgehammer.
America, it seems to me, is drifting toward catastrophe. Donald Trump is leading us there. And all the while, our politicians plot about political outcomes and leverage. Republican politicians are afraid to upset him; Democratic politicians are afraid to impeach him. But, because nothing changes, because he is never truly held accountable, too many Americans are settling into a functional numbness, a just-let-me-survive-it form of sedation. But, that is where the edge of death is marked. That is where the rot begins. That is where a society loses itself.
Carroll’s account of rape by Trump stands out for its brutality and severity. And yet, her account landed like one more body on the pile in a mass grave: reduced by the multitude of other accusations rather than amplified by them. There was media coverage of Carroll’s accusation and social media discussion of it, but it never truly sufficiently sunk in and gathered the gravity it deserved.
To you, America, I ask: What is the breaking point? Is there a breaking point? Does nothing now matter that used to matter? Do we simply allow this accusation to pass like all the others, using the limping excuse that whether or not the man who sits in the Oval Office is a sexual predator or not, he was sufficiently litigated in the 2016 election?
A sickness has settled on this country. We are stuck in a stupor. People have settled in themselves that the only remedy is at the ballot box in 2020, mostly because that is what they are incessantly being told. "
"
The libtards are very upset because America has found its way again. It became a superpower through hard work and tenacity of the pioneers and the imposition of a strong Christian work ethic.
The left, which now includes the communists, are doing what they have always done and that is try to impose a system that makes the people depend on the government for survival. Thank goodness Trump was there to stand up to the socialists or America would truly be fucked.
As for Charles M Blow he works for the NYT so what do you expect him to write? He follows the bidding of his bosses just like the ST does in Singapore.
Naturally, anyone with a sense of moral will be upset if his wife or daughter is raped .. no less by the President of the United States.
Don't be so naive. All these women had ample time to file charges long before Trump was President.
Ask yourself why they all come out of the woodwork whenever a Presidential campaign is moving into high gear.
Same thing with Kavanaugh. He was a circuit judge and free from scandal until he was nominated for the Supreme court. When Trump announced his selection he suddenly was proclaimed as a pervert of the highest order.
Give me a break.
It is precisely because he is the President that these truths about the person need to be out . I can understand if he is not a public authoritative leader, the victims may not want to bring the stories up. But when that person is the President with a dark side, you’d better know the truth of the man because one day he can lead the country downhill which in the view of many Americans the rot has already begun.Don't be so naive. All these women had ample time to file charges long before Trump was President.
Ask yourself why they all come out of the woodwork whenever a Presidential campaign is moving into high gear.
Same thing with Kavanaugh. He was a circuit judge and free from scandal until he was nominated for the Supreme court. When Trump announced his selection he suddenly was proclaimed as a pervert of the highest order.
Give me a break.
Everybody has a dark side but to come out with these outlandish accusations decades after the so called assault has a very strong stench of dirty politics.
Trump is no angel but he's on the right track to restore the USA from being sucker to being in the forefront in the fight against the insidious creep of socialism that destroys every nation where it takes hold.
NZ is going down the gutter as we speak because a ridiculous system of voting resulted in the losing liberal retard party being able to form a government.
I'm already packing my bags and moving on. I have no desire to see my astronomical taxes being squandered on touchy, feely social projects while the economy continues to tank.
TRUMP RELENTED ON HUAWEI!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...llow-china-s-huawei-to-buy-from-u-s-suppliers
Trump Says He’ll Allow China’s Huawei to Buy From U.S. Suppliers
By Margaret Talev, Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Jacobs
29, 2019, 2:29 PM GMT+7
President Donald Trump said he’ll allow Huawei Technologies Co. to buy products from U.S. suppliers, in a concession to China after talks with the country’s President Xi Jinping on Saturday.
“U.S. companies can sell their equipment to Huawei,” Trump said at a news conference following the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan. “We’re talking about equipment where there’s no great national security problem with it.”
The Commerce Department last month moved to blacklist Huawei, cutting it off from U.S. suppliers, though many companies have managed to skirt the restrictions. Trump met with Xi on Saturday on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, and agreed to pause the trade war between their countries.
Trump said the two leaders discussed Huawei as part of their talks.
“I said that’s O.K., that we will keep selling that product, these are American companies that make these products. That’s very complex, by the way,” Trump said. “I’ve agreed to allow them to continue to sell that product so that American companies will continue.”
The U.S. has been engaged in a global campaign to block Huawei from so-called 5G communications networks, calling the company a security threat. The Trump administration has alleged the Chinese government could use Huawei’s products to spy on countries that use them in their networks.
The company has denied that it conducts espionage for Beijing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...llow-china-s-huawei-to-buy-from-u-s-suppliers
Trump Says He’ll Allow China’s Huawei to Buy From U.S. Suppliers
By Margaret Talev, Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Jacobs
29, 2019, 2:29 PM GMT+7
President Donald Trump said he’ll allow Huawei Technologies Co. to buy products from U.S. suppliers, in a concession to China after talks with the country’s President Xi Jinping on Saturday.
“U.S. companies can sell their equipment to Huawei,” Trump said at a news conference following the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan. “We’re talking about equipment where there’s no great national security problem with it.”
The Commerce Department last month moved to blacklist Huawei, cutting it off from U.S. suppliers, though many companies have managed to skirt the restrictions. Trump met with Xi on Saturday on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, and agreed to pause the trade war between their countries.
Trump said the two leaders discussed Huawei as part of their talks.
“I said that’s O.K., that we will keep selling that product, these are American companies that make these products. That’s very complex, by the way,” Trump said. “I’ve agreed to allow them to continue to sell that product so that American companies will continue.”
The U.S. has been engaged in a global campaign to block Huawei from so-called 5G communications networks, calling the company a security threat. The Trump administration has alleged the Chinese government could use Huawei’s products to spy on countries that use them in their networks.
The company has denied that it conducts espionage for Beijing.
USA = Global Public Enemy #1 = Evil Culprit Devil & PEST! = CCB = MUST DIE ASAP!
Trying to get the rest of world to PAY for it's Huge Debts now @ about US$22T.
http://www.sohu.com/a/323711575_148882?spm=smpc.home.business-news11.1.15618024709157roD7oJ
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原创 美国或正将万亿美元赤字风险转嫁多国，外媒：8国经济或将岌岌可危
2019-06-29 06:14
近日，美债再次重挫下跌，被市场抛售，与此同时，油价开始从上个月的低点止跌反弹，以上这些都意味着，投资者正在以较高的价格撤出避险资产，将资金投入股市，稍早前，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示有必要时将会降息，但也打消了市场7月降息的预期。
另据路透社援引美国全国商业经济协会发布的最新调查显示，美国经济2020年陷入衰退的可能性大幅上升至60%，而体现美国的多项关键数据也已经确认制造业陷入萎缩，这些数据正在加深投资者对美国经济正在失去动力的担忧，这一点在部分美债收益率曲线倒挂中得到了强调，经济前景更加黯淡，市场目前正在全面反映美联储2020年年底前将降息三次，这是该周期的一个新的温和极端。
而稍早前，美联储宣布9月缩表计划结束之后的于2019年10月再次购债，而以上这些最新迹象都在说明美联储即将正式重启QE（或变相的量化宽松），这就意味着向全球市场发出了一个最强的金钱流向信号，这是自2015年12月开始的货币紧缩周期将提前结束的最清晰信号。
我们多次强调，在这个过程中，由于美元储备货币的特殊地位，美联储每一次货币举措，都牵动着全球多个市场的经济走势。对此，投资经理Coutts在近日表示，美联储每次的货币举措都会拿脆弱经济体开刀，就像一群野生牛羚正在渡河，狮子会挑年幼体弱的下手......其他整群牛羚会继续前进。
数据显示，目前，各短期限美债价格上涨，已使得短期美元流动性紧张，而目前，外汇融资市场的美元荒不仅没有得到缓解，反而变得更趋紧，如此一来，那些外债高企、外储薄弱及高通胀威胁的经济体都将不断陷入美元融资成本变贵及市场上的美元回流美国的模式，这也几乎成为美元持续货币紧缩的主要目的之一，而此时的美国能源战略正在推动其流入速度。
说到底，这更像是美元精心炮制了收割这些市场投资者财富的过程，也是美国经济将每年近万亿美元赤字风险转嫁给多国市场的进程，因为多年来这些市场凭借着美联储资产负债表的快速膨胀，养成了对短期廉价美元融资的依赖。
此时，这些市场的货币当局必须出售外储以维持固定汇率，但这样却进一步加剧了国际收支赤字，由于这些市场本国实际的美元积蓄少之又少，美元降息前后的过程中，美元资本纷纷撤离，最终这些市场则会不断上演流动性停滞的困顿景象。
对此，一位传奇人物对当今世界重大经济和金融风险提出一些新见解，他就是货币历史波动的埃格.冯.格雷耶斯(Egon Von Greyerz)，他在Goldmoney上发表的最新文章认为现在全球市场存在10大经济和金融风险，仅一种风险变成现实就足以改变世界。
Egon Von Greyerz / 图片来源YouTube
他认为，事实就是这样，风险意味着你可能失去部分或全部的投资。通常情况下，投资评估会考虑风险，但是，世界市场真的重视这些风险吗？回顾2018年，全球宏观面不确定因素众多。2019年，许多风险仍然充斥着世界各地，德意志银行首席全球经济学家Torsten Slk也在上周预测了全球发达市场和新兴市场的潜在风险，这些经济和金融风险包括：
算法驱动及风险平价驱动是在全球市场中的快速交易是2019年接下去排名第一的风险，比如，2018年四季度美股狂泻，对于这场抛售潮的原因市场中并没有共识；
美国经济资不抵债，债台高筑，只有被高估的美元在苦苦支撑，这会导致美国国债拍卖遇冷或投标覆盖率降低，德银认为，2019年，美国国债是否还会有大量投资者买单？还是说会发生滞销呢？这可能是今年市场的重大风险之一；
全球债务高达232万亿美元，这些债务一直无法偿还，也无法在利率正常化时融资；
全球无资金储备的负债高达250万亿美元，当然，这笔负债也永远无法兑现；
全球中央银行们的资产负债表上有20万亿美元（其中美联储占4.5万亿），都是无力偿还的；
有20个国家的利率都为零或以下，这无法支撑；
对于全球纸币系统来说，随意印钞，货币将变得毫无价值；如果英国和欧盟无协议分手，冲击金融市场，同时，更将冲击英国经济和欧洲经济，而破产的欧洲银行体系——不太可能继续生存下去；
美联储和欧央行重新开始量化宽松，风险资产没有上涨行情，货币政策和财政政策工具被用完，全球经济恐将经历明斯基时刻；
全球衍生品价值1.5万亿美元，随着交易对手破产，这些衍生品将全部崩溃，同时，过度杠杆化的全球银行系统——杠杆率达到20至50倍；
新兴市场中印度、阿根廷、南非、印尼的经济政经环境可能存在潜在变动，全球经济发展的不平衡继续加剧；
不过，我们也同时注意到，除了标普列出的全球经济新脆弱五国外，根据彭博发布的最新报告显示，目前这8个国家的经济或也即将岌岌可危，正面临着巨大的经济挑战，这8个国家是：土耳其、黎巴嫩、厄瓜多尔、乌克兰、埃及、巴林、巴基斯坦和尼日利亚。我们最后建议投资者提前做好准备。（完）
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Original US or is transferring the trillion dollar deficit risk to many countries, foreign media: 8 economies may be at risk
2019-06-29 06:14
Recently, the US debt once again fell and fell, and was sold off by the market. At the same time, oil prices began to rebound from the low point of last month. All of this means that investors are withdrawing safe-haven assets at a higher price. Putting money into the stock market, a little earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that it would cut interest rates when necessary, but also dispelled the market's expectation of a rate cut in July.
According to a new survey released by Reuters, the National Association of Business Economics, the possibility of the US economy falling into recession in 2020 has risen sharply to 60%, and many key data reflecting the US have confirmed that manufacturing is shrinking. Deepening investors’ concerns that the US economy is losing momentum, this is highlighted in the inversion of some US bond yield curves, and the economic outlook is even more bleak. The market is now fully reflecting that the Fed will cut interest rates three times before the end of 2020. This is the cycle. A new gentle extreme.
Earlier, the Fed announced that it would buy again in October 2019 after the end of the September contraction plan. These latest signs indicate that the Fed is about to officially restart QE (or quantitative easing in disguise), which means The global market has sent out one of the strongest money flow signals, the clearest signal that the monetary tightening cycle will end prematurely since December 2015.
We have repeatedly stressed that in this process, due to the special status of the US dollar reserve currency, every monetary measure of the Fed has affected the economic trends of many markets around the world. In this regard, investment manager Coutts said recently that the Fed’s monetary measures will take the fragile economy, just like a group of wild wildebeests crossing the river, the Lions will pick young and weak hands... other whole cattle The antelope will move on.
The data shows that at present, the rise in the short-term US debt prices has made the short-term US dollar liquidity tight. At present, the dollar shortage in the foreign exchange financing market has not only been alleviated, but has become tighter. As a result, those foreign debts are high. Economies with weak external reserves and high inflation threats will continue to fall into the pattern of rising dollar financing costs and the return of US dollars to the US market. This is almost one of the main purposes of the dollar's continued monetary tightening, and the US energy strategy at this time. It is driving its inflow speed.
In the final analysis, this is more like the process of harvesting the wealth of investors in these markets, and the process of the US economy transferring nearly $1 trillion in annual deficit risk to multinational markets, because these markets have relied on the Fed’s balance sheet for many years. Rapid expansion has fostered a reliance on short-term, low-cost dollar financing.
At this point, the monetary authorities in these markets must sell foreign reserves to maintain a fixed exchange rate, but this further exacerbates the balance of payments deficit, because the actual dollar savings in these markets are few and far between, and the US dollar capital in the process of the US dollar interest rate cuts. With the withdrawal, these markets will continue to stage a difficult situation of liquidity stagnation.
In this regard, a legend has put forward some new insights into the major economic and financial risks of today's world. He is Egon Von Greyerz, whose currency history fluctuates. His latest article on Goldmoney believes that now There are 10 major economic and financial risks in the global market, and only one kind of risk becomes a reality to change the world.
Egon Von Greyerz / Image source YouTube
He believes that this is the case, and risk means that you may lose some or all of your investment. Often, investment valuation takes risks into account, but does the world market really value these risks? Looking back on 2018, there are many uncertainties in the global macro perspective. In 2019, many risks are still plagued around the world. Deutsche Bank's chief global economist Torsten Slk also predicted potential risks in developed and emerging markets around the world last week. These economic and financial risks include:
Algorithm-driven and risk-driven drivers are fast-moving in the global market, which is the number one risk in 2019. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2018, US stocks plunged, and there is no consensus in the market for the reason for the sell-off;
The US economy is insolvent and debt is high. Only the overvalued US dollar is struggling. This will lead to a cold auction of US Treasury bonds or a lower bid coverage. Deutsche Bank believes that there will be a large number of investors paying for US Treasury bonds in 2019. ? Or is there a slow sales? This may be one of the major risks in the market this year;
Global debt is as high as $232 trillion, and these debts have been unable to repay and cannot be financed when interest rates are normalized;
The global unfunded liability is as high as $250 trillion. Of course, this liability will never be honored;
Global central banks have $20 trillion on their balance sheets (of which the Fed accounts for 4.5 trillion) and are insolvent;
In 20 countries, the interest rates are all zero or below, which cannot be supported;
For the global banknote system, if the banknotes are printed at will, the currency will become worthless; if the UK and the EU have no agreement to break up, it will hit the financial market, and at the same time, it will hit the British economy and the European economy, and the bankrupt European banking system - It is unlikely to continue to survive;
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank resumed quantitative easing, risk assets did not rise, monetary policy and fiscal policy tools were exhausted, and the global economy is likely to experience Minsky moments;
Global derivatives are valued at $1.5 trillion, and as derivatives fall into bankruptcy, these derivatives will all collapse, while the over-leveraging global banking system – leveraged 20 to 50 times;
There may be potential changes in the economic and political environment of India, Argentina, South Africa and Indonesia in emerging markets, and the imbalance in global economic development continues to intensify;
However, we also noticed that, in addition to the new fragile global economy listed by the S&P, according to the latest report released by Bloomberg, the economy of these eight countries is currently in danger and is facing enormous economic challenges. The eight countries are: Turkey, Lebanon, Ecuador, Ukraine, Egypt, Bahrain, Pakistan and Nigeria. We finally recommend that investors prepare in advance. (Finish)
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Trying to get the rest of world to PAY for it's Huge Debts now @ about US$22T.
http://www.sohu.com/a/323711575_148882?spm=smpc.home.business-news11.1.15618024709157roD7oJ
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原创 美国或正将万亿美元赤字风险转嫁多国，外媒：8国经济或将岌岌可危
2019-06-29 06:14
近日，美债再次重挫下跌，被市场抛售，与此同时，油价开始从上个月的低点止跌反弹，以上这些都意味着，投资者正在以较高的价格撤出避险资产，将资金投入股市，稍早前，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示有必要时将会降息，但也打消了市场7月降息的预期。
另据路透社援引美国全国商业经济协会发布的最新调查显示，美国经济2020年陷入衰退的可能性大幅上升至60%，而体现美国的多项关键数据也已经确认制造业陷入萎缩，这些数据正在加深投资者对美国经济正在失去动力的担忧，这一点在部分美债收益率曲线倒挂中得到了强调，经济前景更加黯淡，市场目前正在全面反映美联储2020年年底前将降息三次，这是该周期的一个新的温和极端。
而稍早前，美联储宣布9月缩表计划结束之后的于2019年10月再次购债，而以上这些最新迹象都在说明美联储即将正式重启QE（或变相的量化宽松），这就意味着向全球市场发出了一个最强的金钱流向信号，这是自2015年12月开始的货币紧缩周期将提前结束的最清晰信号。
我们多次强调，在这个过程中，由于美元储备货币的特殊地位，美联储每一次货币举措，都牵动着全球多个市场的经济走势。对此，投资经理Coutts在近日表示，美联储每次的货币举措都会拿脆弱经济体开刀，就像一群野生牛羚正在渡河，狮子会挑年幼体弱的下手......其他整群牛羚会继续前进。
数据显示，目前，各短期限美债价格上涨，已使得短期美元流动性紧张，而目前，外汇融资市场的美元荒不仅没有得到缓解，反而变得更趋紧，如此一来，那些外债高企、外储薄弱及高通胀威胁的经济体都将不断陷入美元融资成本变贵及市场上的美元回流美国的模式，这也几乎成为美元持续货币紧缩的主要目的之一，而此时的美国能源战略正在推动其流入速度。
说到底，这更像是美元精心炮制了收割这些市场投资者财富的过程，也是美国经济将每年近万亿美元赤字风险转嫁给多国市场的进程，因为多年来这些市场凭借着美联储资产负债表的快速膨胀，养成了对短期廉价美元融资的依赖。
此时，这些市场的货币当局必须出售外储以维持固定汇率，但这样却进一步加剧了国际收支赤字，由于这些市场本国实际的美元积蓄少之又少，美元降息前后的过程中，美元资本纷纷撤离，最终这些市场则会不断上演流动性停滞的困顿景象。
对此，一位传奇人物对当今世界重大经济和金融风险提出一些新见解，他就是货币历史波动的埃格.冯.格雷耶斯(Egon Von Greyerz)，他在Goldmoney上发表的最新文章认为现在全球市场存在10大经济和金融风险，仅一种风险变成现实就足以改变世界。
他认为，事实就是这样，风险意味着你可能失去部分或全部的投资。通常情况下，投资评估会考虑风险，但是，世界市场真的重视这些风险吗？回顾2018年，全球宏观面不确定因素众多。2019年，许多风险仍然充斥着世界各地，德意志银行首席全球经济学家Torsten Slk也在上周预测了全球发达市场和新兴市场的潜在风险，这些经济和金融风险包括：
算法驱动及风险平价驱动是在全球市场中的快速交易是2019年接下去排名第一的风险，比如，2018年四季度美股狂泻，对于这场抛售潮的原因市场中并没有共识；
美国经济资不抵债，债台高筑，只有被高估的美元在苦苦支撑，这会导致美国国债拍卖遇冷或投标覆盖率降低，德银认为，2019年，美国国债是否还会有大量投资者买单？还是说会发生滞销呢？这可能是今年市场的重大风险之一；
全球债务高达232万亿美元，这些债务一直无法偿还，也无法在利率正常化时融资；
全球无资金储备的负债高达250万亿美元，当然，这笔负债也永远无法兑现；
全球中央银行们的资产负债表上有20万亿美元（其中美联储占4.5万亿），都是无力偿还的；
有20个国家的利率都为零或以下，这无法支撑；
对于全球纸币系统来说，随意印钞，货币将变得毫无价值；如果英国和欧盟无协议分手，冲击金融市场，同时，更将冲击英国经济和欧洲经济，而破产的欧洲银行体系——不太可能继续生存下去；
美联储和欧央行重新开始量化宽松，风险资产没有上涨行情，货币政策和财政政策工具被用完，全球经济恐将经历明斯基时刻；
全球衍生品价值1.5万亿美元，随着交易对手破产，这些衍生品将全部崩溃，同时，过度杠杆化的全球银行系统——杠杆率达到20至50倍；
新兴市场中印度、阿根廷、南非、印尼的经济政经环境可能存在潜在变动，全球经济发展的不平衡继续加剧；
不过，我们也同时注意到，除了标普列出的全球经济新脆弱五国外，根据彭博发布的最新报告显示，目前这8个国家的经济或也即将岌岌可危，正面临着巨大的经济挑战，这8个国家是：土耳其、黎巴嫩、厄瓜多尔、乌克兰、埃及、巴林、巴基斯坦和尼日利亚。我们最后建议投资者提前做好准备。（完）
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Original US or is transferring the trillion dollar deficit risk to many countries, foreign media: 8 economies may be at risk
2019-06-29 06:14
Recently, the US debt once again fell and fell, and was sold off by the market. At the same time, oil prices began to rebound from the low point of last month. All of this means that investors are withdrawing safe-haven assets at a higher price. Putting money into the stock market, a little earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that it would cut interest rates when necessary, but also dispelled the market's expectation of a rate cut in July.
According to a new survey released by Reuters, the National Association of Business Economics, the possibility of the US economy falling into recession in 2020 has risen sharply to 60%, and many key data reflecting the US have confirmed that manufacturing is shrinking. Deepening investors’ concerns that the US economy is losing momentum, this is highlighted in the inversion of some US bond yield curves, and the economic outlook is even more bleak. The market is now fully reflecting that the Fed will cut interest rates three times before the end of 2020. This is the cycle. A new gentle extreme.
Earlier, the Fed announced that it would buy again in October 2019 after the end of the September contraction plan. These latest signs indicate that the Fed is about to officially restart QE (or quantitative easing in disguise), which means The global market has sent out one of the strongest money flow signals, the clearest signal that the monetary tightening cycle will end prematurely since December 2015.
We have repeatedly stressed that in this process, due to the special status of the US dollar reserve currency, every monetary measure of the Fed has affected the economic trends of many markets around the world. In this regard, investment manager Coutts said recently that the Fed’s monetary measures will take the fragile economy, just like a group of wild wildebeests crossing the river, the Lions will pick young and weak hands... other whole cattle The antelope will move on.
The data shows that at present, the rise in the short-term US debt prices has made the short-term US dollar liquidity tight. At present, the dollar shortage in the foreign exchange financing market has not only been alleviated, but has become tighter. As a result, those foreign debts are high. Economies with weak external reserves and high inflation threats will continue to fall into the pattern of rising dollar financing costs and the return of US dollars to the US market. This is almost one of the main purposes of the dollar's continued monetary tightening, and the US energy strategy at this time. It is driving its inflow speed.
In the final analysis, this is more like the process of harvesting the wealth of investors in these markets, and the process of the US economy transferring nearly $1 trillion in annual deficit risk to multinational markets, because these markets have relied on the Fed’s balance sheet for many years. Rapid expansion has fostered a reliance on short-term, low-cost dollar financing.
At this point, the monetary authorities in these markets must sell foreign reserves to maintain a fixed exchange rate, but this further exacerbates the balance of payments deficit, because the actual dollar savings in these markets are few and far between, and the US dollar capital in the process of the US dollar interest rate cuts. With the withdrawal, these markets will continue to stage a difficult situation of liquidity stagnation.
In this regard, a legend has put forward some new insights into the major economic and financial risks of today's world. He is Egon Von Greyerz, whose currency history fluctuates. His latest article on Goldmoney believes that now There are 10 major economic and financial risks in the global market, and only one kind of risk becomes a reality to change the world.
Egon Von Greyerz / Image source YouTube
He believes that this is the case, and risk means that you may lose some or all of your investment. Often, investment valuation takes risks into account, but does the world market really value these risks? Looking back on 2018, there are many uncertainties in the global macro perspective. In 2019, many risks are still plagued around the world. Deutsche Bank's chief global economist Torsten Slk also predicted potential risks in developed and emerging markets around the world last week. These economic and financial risks include:
Algorithm-driven and risk-driven drivers are fast-moving in the global market, which is the number one risk in 2019. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2018, US stocks plunged, and there is no consensus in the market for the reason for the sell-off;
The US economy is insolvent and debt is high. Only the overvalued US dollar is struggling. This will lead to a cold auction of US Treasury bonds or a lower bid coverage. Deutsche Bank believes that there will be a large number of investors paying for US Treasury bonds in 2019. ? Or is there a slow sales? This may be one of the major risks in the market this year;
Global debt is as high as $232 trillion, and these debts have been unable to repay and cannot be financed when interest rates are normalized;
The global unfunded liability is as high as $250 trillion. Of course, this liability will never be honored;
Global central banks have $20 trillion on their balance sheets (of which the Fed accounts for 4.5 trillion) and are insolvent;
In 20 countries, the interest rates are all zero or below, which cannot be supported;
For the global banknote system, if the banknotes are printed at will, the currency will become worthless; if the UK and the EU have no agreement to break up, it will hit the financial market, and at the same time, it will hit the British economy and the European economy, and the bankrupt European banking system - It is unlikely to continue to survive;
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank resumed quantitative easing, risk assets did not rise, monetary policy and fiscal policy tools were exhausted, and the global economy is likely to experience Minsky moments;
Global derivatives are valued at $1.5 trillion, and as derivatives fall into bankruptcy, these derivatives will all collapse, while the over-leveraging global banking system – leveraged 20 to 50 times;
There may be potential changes in the economic and political environment of India, Argentina, South Africa and Indonesia in emerging markets, and the imbalance in global economic development continues to intensify;
However, we also noticed that, in addition to the new fragile global economy listed by the S&P, according to the latest report released by Bloomberg, the economy of these eight countries is currently in danger and is facing enormous economic challenges. The eight countries are: Turkey, Lebanon, Ecuador, Ukraine, Egypt, Bahrain, Pakistan and Nigeria. We finally recommend that investors prepare in advance. (Finish)
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What does this say about Trump policy ? For one , he didn’t have any policy . It is just pure business negotiation .
True to prediction, Trump is willing to have a deal with China. He even offered concessions to Huawei by allowing US companies now to sell to the China's tech company; something that he had previously banned for security reasons. What changed is obvious... he knows that he is going to lose the 2020 re-election if the trade war continues and American tech companies are hurting.
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Be realistic... if you are a no-body, no one really bothers to bring up your criminal past in public. Sure, they may go to report the case to the police and let them handle it. But if you are now the President of the United States , you have to be prepared to account for your past actions because you are who you are as people knew you in the past... that's your character ... your character won't change just because you have become the President...and that what's scare people.
You can be very competent in being a President, but if you have a dark side and you hide that from the public and worst, deny it when you could admit it and get over it, you lose the very respect of those who have stood by you and trusted you for your leadership.
[QUOTE="Leongsam, post: 2925577, member: 1"
]You can fill the whole page with rude icons but that does not alter the fact that Trump is kicking Xi's ass and Xi is now begging for mercy.
If a deal is not reached China's economy will collapse and it will be the end of the yellow peril.[/QUOTE]
sound very familiar.
heard similar dire predictions over the years.
yet i dont see this happening at all.
did you and your gangs of soothsayers get this idea
by praying to the cross , the halal one , or by throwing this
sadly, non of them are accurate.
]You can fill the whole page with rude icons but that does not alter the fact that Trump is kicking Xi's ass and Xi is now begging for mercy.
If a deal is not reached China's economy will collapse and it will be the end of the yellow peril.[/QUOTE]
sound very familiar.
heard similar dire predictions over the years.
yet i dont see this happening at all.
did you and your gangs of soothsayers get this idea
by praying to the cross , the halal one , or by throwing this
sadly, non of them are accurate.
