Why PAP will win Ponggol BE

[zhihau]

hahaha...you prediction does not make sense...
the dilution of votes in a MCF should affect opps more than papee.

maybe you're right, my predictions would be more accurate when closer to the poll date, like how me predicted the PE results last year?

 

[zhihau]

haha... you forgot in a BE, vote swings are more telling. Yes PAP may lose this one as the ground is not sweet.

hehehe... you bery the bery the optimistic

 

[sleaguepunter]

A lot of things have surfaced, but it could be perceived as the PAP cleaning house, or the PAP willing to change its ways. All these revelations have a double edged effect - they expose ssome wrongdoing, but it also looks like an apology and a promise that things will get better (even though it's most likely just a promise).

I cannot think of any reason for a big swing against the PAP. I cannot think of peoples' lives being affected in concrete and immediate ways that would trigger this swing. And some more Lee Li Lian is still Lee Li Lian.

haha... pap changed? promise to change better? maybe it because i seldom read or watch SCMs, so i didnt know of any more new apology or promise to change since pinkie boat quay rally in 2011GE. most if not the current revelations on pap dirty tricks were exposed by others and i am sure there plenty more still to be uncover by public.

as for ah lian being an ordinary ah lian, so be it. i no need another yes man technocrat to nod head in parliment. as good as arsehole koh u percived to be, he cannot break ranks from pap positions due to the WHIP. so what he a "strong" candidate? btw, whether koh a "strong" candidate or not, i dunno but i know he has a strong backer.

 

[zeebjii]

LTK's new blue eye boy gerald.

LOL Gerald Giam has zero personality. If he is fielded i guarantee WP sure lose. He's better off 'hidden' among the pack in a GRC. Lee Li Lian stands a higher chance than him.

 

[Fook Seng]

LOL Gerald Giam has zero personality. If he is fielded i guarantee WP sure lose. He's better off 'hidden' among the pack in a GRC. Lee Li Lian stands a higher chance than him.

Do you know why GG is occupying the NCMP seat?

 

[LadyArwen]

Punggol stays with PAP

 

[LadyArwen]

For the opposition parties it will be a gauge of popularity

 

[zeebjii]

Do you know why GG is occupying the NCMP seat?

I have no clue. Please enlighten. I am only sure that he'd lose in a single seat contest against any incumbent PAP MP.

 

[metalmickey]

haha... pap changed? promise to change better? maybe it because i seldom read or watch SCMs, so i didnt know of any more new apology or promise to change since pinkie boat quay rally in 2011GE. most if not the current revelations on pap dirty tricks were exposed by others and i am sure there plenty more still to be uncover by public.

as for ah lian being an ordinary ah lian, so be it. i no need another yes man technocrat to nod head in parliment. as good as arsehole koh u percived to be, he cannot break ranks from pap positions due to the WHIP. so what he a "strong" candidate? btw, whether koh a "strong" candidate or not, i dunno but i know he has a strong backer.

What I am tallking about is the perception. A promise is just a promise. People can only think whether PAP is changing for the better. As for what the reality is I also cannot tell. Similarly when I say that Koh is a strong candidate I mean that he looks like the sort of person that people will vote for. Obviously I don't know what he is really like because - well Low Thia Khiang has been around for ages and I don't even know what he's really like!

 

[neddy]

This is why I think PAP will win Ponggol BE.

Unless, there is an unexpected voter swing to a single Opposition candidate.

1. PAP control the election date. They found a suitable candidate. They know the weaknesses of the Opposition.

2. Dr Chee will play into the PAP hands by field a candidate to split the Opposition vote.

3. Single-seat representative - WP & Sdp will not want to miss the chance. 2016 is too far away.

4. A By-election is not in PAP favour at this time with AIM saga. Why is LHL rushing into BE. He must be confident.

5. Voters in pre CNY happy mood. Incumbent advantage.

Even with a straight one to one fight, there is no guarantee that the Opposition will win.

General Election 2011: Punggol East
Party Candidate.......... Votes... %
PAP... Michael Palmer.... 16,994... 54.54

WP.... Lee Li Lian......... 12,777... 41.01
SDA... Desmond Lim.... 1,387... 4.45
Total ........................ 14,164... 45.46

There are fewer voters in 2013, how is this playing out?

It sounds like the way that Potong Pasir was lost. At that time, a lot of shipyard workers were laid off (inevitable due to upgrade in technology), and the PAP MP for Potong Pasir was in charge of the shipyards. So Chiam came in at a time when people were upset at the incumbent.

What is going to make the residents of Punggol East so tulan about the govt in the last 18 months that they will desert PAP en masse? A lot of things have surfaced, but it could be perceived as the PAP cleaning house, or the PAP willing to change its ways. All these revelations have a double edged effect - they expose ssome wrongdoing, but it also looks like an apology and a promise that things will get better (even though it's most likely just a promise).

I cannot think of any reason for a big swing against the PAP. I cannot think of peoples' lives being affected in concrete and immediate ways that would trigger this swing. And some more Lee Li Lian is still Lee Li Lian.

 

[andyfisher]

GG has as much charisma as a std ravaged tiong oyster. he is better off as an ncmp.
the anus doc pappy also got a shocked face, like 'wtf am I doing here, cleaning away the shit palmed off to me'
lets have a non urine guy standing. oppo need to win for sme pp's voice in parl.

 

[Fook Seng]

I have no clue. Please enlighten. I am only sure that he'd lose in a single seat contest against any incumbent PAP MP.

Why is he the NCMP and not an SDP MP?

 

[neddy]

Lets look at Oppositions' missteps.

SDP Dumb Strategy!

CSJ said PAP pressed the PANIC button. - Well, CSJ is wrong. He himself pressed the PANIC button.

The Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) has called on the Workers’ Party (WP) to work with it to field a single candidate under a joint campaign.

What he is telling the voters is that SDP cannot win on his own, and the party is inexperienced in running a Town Council and need WP's help.

After Michael resigned and before PAP BE announcement, CSJ should have spent time discussing forming a SDP-WP alliance before doing the Punggol East walkabout on his own.

Ouch! He shot his own leg by mistake.!

 

[leetahbah]

PAP will likely win since it is a MCF.

 

[DuYunQi]

What I am tallking about is the perception. A promise is just a promise. People can only think whether PAP is changing for the better. As for what the reality is I also cannot tell. Similarly when I say that Koh is a strong candidate I mean that he looks like the sort of person that people will vote for. Obviously I don't know what he is really like because - well Low Thia Khiang has been around for ages and I don't even know what he's really like!

I agree with sleaguepunter, and I disagree with your view that a promise is a promise..
If you promise and don't deliver, what is lost is your reputation and notably people's trust and beilef in you.

Promising and not doing hard enough, now that is hard to prove.. but with all eyes on pappies, the recent incidents on foreigners protesting, PAP MP getting involved in extra-marital affairs.. don't seem to do any good.

In addidition, the AIM thing only made it more clear, in my opinion, that pappies still don't want to address the issue of being completely transparent. Here's a poser, if your estate is well maintained, would you care how your town council is managed? If no, then why kick up so much a fuss on WP's handling of Aljunied and Hougang?

If yes, then the AIM thingy has to be explained in all details.. not get dragged into a publicized debate on the media. The exchange did no real proof for me on the "fair and transparent manner" of the deal. Instead, it raised more questions.. I shan't put it here and distract.

But.. I don't agree that Poh looks strong. He looks EXACTLY like all pappies candidates.. doctors, lawyers.. clean-cut and wholesome. Yeah, he said he was from a poor family.. but his ooks sure don't show any hardened attitude to me. I can see the look in some people's eyes, those who had hard times.. and also their demeanor. There is a humility, yet strong character.. they don't bend back or over.. and they are not afraid of standing up and speaking out. I see nothing of these in pappies candidate. All i see is a copy of all pappies mps, and other candidates images, imprinted onto this man.

I might be biased, but nothing about pappies candidate shows me that he is able to bring the voters' voice to parliament.

 

[metalmickey]

I agree with sleaguepunter, and I disagree with your view that a promise is a promise..
If you promise and don't deliver, what is lost is your reputation and notably people's trust and beilef in you.

When I said "A promise is just a promise" I meant "they are only going to promise but not do anything"

 

[ah_phah]

if we look at the PE2011 as case study, maybe the white sect has a slight advantage in multi-cornered fights, but that doesnt guarantee that the people havent learnt from past events.

assuming after nomination day, we have a multi-cornered fight, comprising of; PAP, WP, SDP, RP & 2 independant candidates. it is quite obvious that voters are inclined to look at party backed candidates more than independant candidates. simply because 1 man show is proven unsustainable in todays context, let alone politics.

then, some voters will look at party heritage & credentials, which makes it favorable for the PAP & WP. there will also be some who r receptive towards different colors for a change, SDP & RP.

there will be those that are more political savvy that will psycho analyse, disect each candidate, read & scrutinize the party manifestos etc. but wait, does the incumbent really have a manifesto, or is it going to be the usual flier of ambiguous fictional forecasts?

if tested & proven is the incumbent's trump card that they harp about for the past decades, think again, their candidate is a noob that hasnt clocked even his 1st trimester with the party.

will he protect the interest of his countrymen/residents and tell his party leaders to drop the idea of 6mio population, stop talking about subsidies, but making things genuinely affordable, such as; public housing, education, healthcare, ample placing for school enrolment, job placements that pay sustainable salaries and not pittance... etc?

i doubt a noob has balls of steel to do so.

 

[neddy]

Now the question is how many candidates will lose their deposits.

My Prediction:

RP - ??? Anson spirit TBA ???? (lose deposit)
SDA - Mr Desmond Lim Bak Chuan (lose deposit)
SDP - Paul Thambyah (lose deposit) *** Update: Withdrawn. No chance to lose deposit ***
WP - Lee Li Lian (30% votes at least)

Meanwhile, PAP and Loong can relax now. Koh Poh Koon is after all, 'Son' of Punggol.

Played neatly into the PAP strategy.

 

[wwabbit]

I wouldn't give PAP's strategy that much credit unless they really fall below 50%

 

[neddy]

I wouldn't give PAP's strategy that much credit unless they really fall below 50%

They just need to retain the seat, considering the higher chance of freak result in a By-election