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i think you quite nailed it but not entirely....the primary fault line is that famous or infamous MacMohan line drawn as a boundary by the British to seperate what is now Bangladesh -the former East Pakistan and BurmaRakhine state is named after rakhineyas.
There was no problem between Myanmar military and rakhineyas until a large lng field was found off the coast of rakhine a few years ago.
Unlike rakhineyas, Karen's, kachins and Shan have been continuously fighting Myanmar military since 1970's.
Shan being ethnically similar to Thai, seek refuge in Thailand. While kachin and karens fled to thailand or malaysia while waiting for unhcr to process their flight to western nations.
It's china that caused this problem as I believe they have plans to build a lng terminal and pipeline to yunan province, plus a port in rakhine state.
do a Google search on MacMohan line and things becomes quite clear
this very MacMohan line was and is the cause of current enemity between China and India ..otherwise both countries historically quite buddy buddy and got very well with each other ....and the very dispute of this infamous MacMohan line that India and China fought a war in 1962 ...that till today still remains unresolved between China and India
its because of this MacMohan line that Pakistan and India are at each other throat till today...its this McMohan line that Kashmir remains a disputed territory in the UN
its this MacMohan line is the very predictment of the Rogingyas with the Burmese....and add that to that of China's intention too...China alao wants a road that runs right into Rogingyas territory giving them access to the Bay of Bengal ...that would effectively cut of not only the need for straits of malacca or Sunda straits but also Singapore as an important port