bumped to 1st page again...
after looking at the informal polling station set up in SBF, what i observe is that Tan Jee Say is very popular among the 21s to 40s age group, as to my best understanding, most people who participate the SBF are in their 21s to 40s age group, as they belong to the IT revolution age group, and can use a computer reasonably well than the ones in the 50s to 90s age group or the BABY BOOMERS age group.
To remain fair, without fear and favor, like what we say in SAF days...
21 to 49 age group have a 70% + / - 5% Normal Distribution Bell Curve Analysis (Margin of Error +/- 5% due to low sampling rate) PREFER Tan Jee Say.
50 to 90 age group have at least 30% PAP die hard fans voting for Tony (Margin of Error +/- 5% due to low sampling rate)
As I have insufficient data, didn't do enough interview, I only break the Electorate Base into 2 groups, the 21 to 49 age group, and the 50 to 90 age group ( I assume anyone above 90 is senile or immobile )
By Ratio analysis; (Dumb calculation)
Demographics of Singapore [ Assuming Electorate Base is 2.2 Million PAX ]
By skewing the aging population, the Baby Boomers Age Group, 50s to 90s should be having a 50% share of the Electorate Base.
thus 50s to 90s = 1.1 Million Electorate.
& 21s to 49 = 1.1 Million Electorate.
70% +/- 5% of the 21 to 49 GROUP go for Tan Jee Say [ 30% +/- 5% contested among Tan Cheng Bock, Tan Kin Lian and Tony Tan ---> sub analysis]
30% +/- 5% of the 50 to 90 GROUP go for Tony Tan [ 70% +/- 5% contested among Tan Cheng Bock, Tan Kin Lian and Tan Jee Say --> sub analysis]
assuming no margin of error.
70% * 1.1 Million Votes is Tan Jee Say's Base Line. (remaining votes 30% * 1.1 M split among other's)
30% * 1.1 Million Votes is Tony's Base Line. (remaining votes 70% * 1.1 M split among other's)
TJS baseline = 0.77 M votes
Tony baseline = 0.33 M votes
1.1 M votes are swing votes, undecided...
If these undecided people get so brain washed by Mediacorp, then Tan Jee Say will lose to Tony... but there are already so many bad publicity about Tony... Tan Cheng Bock is good, however, is too old to be an effective president, better served as an AIDE to Tan Jee Say, and I don't really know what Tan Kin Lian can do.
So, assuming the swing votes, to represent public anger, and outcry, 40% are diehard opposition, this would imply that 40% * 1.1 M or 0.44 M votes of the swing votes go to Tan Jee Say.
Thus, Tan Jee Say's minimum baseline is at least 0.77M +0.44M = 1.21M / 2.2M = 55% LANDSLIDE VICTORY!!!!
Please pray that Tan Jee Say don't say anything, or do anything stupid during this week.
Just remain FIRM, FORCEFUL, AGGRESSIVE, POWERFUL, and ENGAGING, RALLY FOR MORAL SUPPORT, and we will have Tan Jee Say as our 7th President of Singapore!
