West Coast-Jurong GRC Final battle.

[NanoSpeed]

If they had come to me for advice.
I will ask them to leemove the
Child caregiver allowance and gov to pay medishield life.

In fact Government has been paying Medishield Life by topping up Medisave. The Medishield Life premium is deducted from Medisave.

What PSP should do is to remove the co-payment and deductible in Medishield Life.

 

[sbfuncle]

In fact Government has been paying Medishield Life by topping up Medisave. The Medishield Life premium is deducted from Medisave.

What PSP should do is to remove the co-payment and deductible in Medishield Life.

The topup is only very little lah.
The premium is very expensive de woh.
Also gov only topup the pg not all Jlb.

The main worlee I have after I become unemployed gambler is medisave becos only output no input and the premium will go up higher and higher as we age..

Leemoving the leeductibles looks fair and good.

 

[sbfuncle]

In fact Government has been paying Medishield Life by topping up Medisave. The Medishield Life premium is deducted from Medisave.

What PSP should do is to remove the co-payment and deductible in Medishield Life.

The current flexi medisave per year definitely needs to increase.
Pls lah a pg only can use $300 per year. Jiak sai man.
Also flexi medisave for outpatient needs to be allowed for sinkies 55 and above. Not 65.

 

[sbfuncle]

By giving fulltime caregiver allowance means they are encouraging parents to kah kah give birth and stay at home don't work.
This will make that race to pop out more jlbs and get more lazy.
Why would sinkies working hard want to sponsor them?

 

[Hightech88]

Grok AI latest voteshare prediction for PSP in West Coast-Jurong West GRC. Looks like chances very high for PSP to win, hor say liao.
Hoot Hor PAP Si! NBCB.

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The Progress Singapore Party (PSP) is contesting the newly formed West Coast-Jurong West GRC in Singapore’s General Election (GE) 2025, scheduled for May 3, 2025. This analysis assesses PSP’s chances in the constituency under three voteshare scenarios, considering their performance in the last election (GE 2020), current voter sentiment favoring greater parliamentary diversity, and Leong Mun Wai’s strong parliamentary record. The analysis draws on recent developments, boundary changes, and PSP’s campaign dynamics.

Background and Context​

In GE 2020, PSP, led by Tan Cheng Bock, contested West Coast GRC and narrowly lost to the People’s Action Party (PAP) with 48.32% of the vote against PAP’s 51.68%—the closest race of that election [Web ID: 0] [Web ID: 16]. This performance earned PSP two Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) seats for Leong Mun Wai and Hazel Poa. For GE 2025, West Coast GRC has been redrawn into West Coast-Jurong West GRC, absorbing Taman Jurong and Jurong West estates (41,000 new voters) from the PAP stronghold of Jurong GRC, while ceding areas like Telok Blangah to Tanjong Pagar GRC [Web ID: 0] [Web ID: 23]. The new GRC has 158,581 voters, up from 146,089 in 2020 [Web ID: 6].

PSP is fielding its “A-team,” including Tan Cheng Bock (84), Leong Mun Wai (65), Hazel Poa (54), and new candidates Sumarleki Amjah (53) and Sani Ismail (49) [Web ID: 1] [Web ID: 4]. They face a PAP team led by Minister for National Development Desmond Lee, with incumbents Ang Wei Neng and Shawn Huang, plus new candidates Hamid Razak and Cassandra Lee [Web ID: 1]. Leong and Poa have highlighted their parliamentary record, filing over 700 questions, eight private member’s motions, six adjournment motions, and one private member’s Bill—the only such Bill by an opposition MP [Web ID: 2] [Web ID: 18]. PM Lawrence Wong noted post-GE 2020 that PAP is unlikely to exceed 65% voteshare in future elections due to a desire for diversity [Web ID: 16], a sentiment that could favor PSP.

Factors Influencing PSP’s Chances​

1. Boundary Changes and Voter Dynamics: The addition of Taman Jurong, a PAP stronghold previously under Jurong GRC (PAP won 74.61% in 2020 [Web ID: 0]), raises the bar for PSP, as acknowledged by Leong Mun Wai, who called it an “uphill battle” [Web ID: 0] [Web ID: 23]. However, Tan Cheng Bock’s historical ties to Jurong—he was a PAP MP for Ayer Rajah SMC (now part of the GRC) for 26 years and ran a clinic in Jurong East—could help PSP connect with residents [Web ID: 0] [Web ID: 4].
2. Voter Sentiment for Diversity: The public’s growing desire for parliamentary diversity, as noted by Wong, aligns with PSP’s campaign for “Progress For All” [Web ID: 16] [Web ID: 18]. This sentiment is evident in residents’ concerns about cost of living and jobs, which PSP’s manifesto addresses with proposals like a $2,250 minimum wage and affordable housing schemes [Web ID: 10].
3. Leong Mun Wai’s Performance: Leong’s parliamentary contributions have raised PSP’s visibility, attracting higher-caliber candidates like Lawrence Pek [Web ID: 9]. However, some online sentiment on Reddit describes Leong as “arrogant” and unresponsive, which could impact voter perception [Web ID: 13].
4. PAP Challenges: The PAP team lacks S. Iswaran, who led West Coast GRC in 2020 but resigned after a corruption conviction [Web ID: 1]. This could weaken PAP’s appeal, though Desmond Lee’s ministerial status might bolster their campaign.

Three Voteshare Scenarios for GE 2025​

Scenario 1: PSP Voteshare at 48–50% (Slight Improvement, PAP Wins)​

• Context: PSP maintains or slightly improves on its 2020 performance (48.32%). The new Taman Jurong voters, historically PAP-leaning, limit PSP’s gains despite their strong campaign. PAP secures 50–52%.
• Factors: Leong’s parliamentary record and Tan’s legacy resonate with some voters, but the short runway to engage 41,000 new voters hampers PSP’s outreach [Web ID: 0]. Voter desire for diversity pushes PSP’s share up marginally, but PAP’s incumbency and Desmond Lee’s prominence hold the line. Online criticism of Leong’s demeanor may also deter some swing voters [Web ID: 13].
• Outcome: PSP loses West Coast-Jurong West GRC but likely retains its NCMP seats due to a strong showing. This scenario aligns with a national PAP voteshare of 60–62%, as in the earlier analysis, where diversity sentiment doesn’t translate into major opposition gains.

Scenario 2: PSP Voteshare at 51–53% (Moderate Gain, PSP Wins)​

• Context: PSP capitalizes on voter desire for diversity and Leong’s parliamentary credibility, securing 51–53% of the vote. PAP drops to 47–49%, reflecting a broader national swing (PAP voteshare at 55–58%).
• Factors: PSP’s focus on bread-and-butter issues like housing affordability and jobs resonates with West Coast-Jurong West residents, who face rising costs [Web ID: 10] [Web ID: 15]. Tan’s historical ties to Jurong sway some PAP-leaning voters, while Iswaran’s absence weakens PAP’s appeal [Web ID: 1]. Leong and Poa’s parliamentary track record convinces voters of PSP’s ability to provide checks and balances. The boundary changes are offset by PSP’s warm reception during walkabouts in Taman Jurong [Web ID: 13].
• Outcome: PSP wins West Coast-Jurong West GRC, gaining 5 seats. This aligns with a national scenario where opposition parties, including WP and SDP, make significant inroads due to diversity sentiment, as predicted in the earlier analysis.

Scenario 3: PSP Voteshare at 55–57% (Significant Surge, PSP Wins Decisively)​

• Context: PSP achieves a major breakthrough, securing 55–57% of the vote, with PAP dropping to 43–45%. This reflects a national PAP voteshare of 50–53%, driven by a strong push for diversity and dissatisfaction with PAP.
• Factors: A combination of economic discontent, PSP’s policy proposals (e.g., GST rollback to 7% [Web ID: 22]), and Leong’s visibility as a vocal opposition figure propels PSP forward. Tan’s mentorship role and historical connection to Jurong win over a significant portion of new voters [Web ID: 9]. The PAP team struggles to connect amid Iswaran’s scandal and broader voter fatigue with PAP’s dominance. Diversity sentiment, as predicted by Wong, reaches a tipping point [Web ID: 16].
• Outcome: PSP wins West Coast-Jurong West GRC decisively, contributing to a national opposition surge (up to 50 seats, as per the earlier analysis). This scenario could pressure PM Wong to resign if PAP loses its majority.

Conclusion​

PSP’s chances in West Coast-Jurong West GRC hinge on their ability to overcome the challenge of new PAP-leaning voters while leveraging voter desire for diversity and Leong Mun Wai’s parliamentary record. In Scenario 1 (48–50%), PSP falls short but remains competitive. In Scenario 2 (51–53%), they secure a narrow victory, reflecting a moderate opposition surge. In Scenario 3 (55–57%), PSP wins decisively, driven by a national shift toward diversity. The most likely outcome, given the boundary changes and PAP’s incumbency, leans toward Scenario 1 or 2, with Scenario 2 becoming more plausible if PSP effectively mobilizes new voters and capitalizes on PAP’s vulnerabilities.
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[ftan42]

In fact, many AI models predicted a similar outcome, but it's essential to remember that these predictions come from the same AI module, which may be prone to similar biases and limitations.

 

[sbfuncle]

But the problem is jurong West are all pap supporters so even with good leecord of West coast, i think hard for psp to win.

 

[laksaboy]

The opposition needs to learn how to fight dirty. Dig up scandalous dirt on the pappies, release them at strategic timings.

 

[NanoSpeed]

But the problem is jurong West are all pap supporters so even with good leecord of West coast, i think hard for psp to win.

PSP will win. You read Desmond's Ngor Heng you know.

 

[sbfuncle]

The opposition needs to learn how to fight dirty. Dig up scandalous dirt on the pappies, release them at strategic timings.

I don't think this will help in anyway.even ccs talked bad about sinkies but they still voted for him

 

[batman1]

If PSP wins West Coast-Jurong West GRC,the residents will line the streets to celebrate the joys of victory !!!

 

[sbfuncle]

PSP will win. You read Desmond's Ngor Heng you know.

I can think we can side bet le how say?
No secret code but I have poon to puak.

Sun I striked 6 3 legged horse races wins among 3 cuntries using da vinci and a soccer with secret code

 

[ftan42]

But the problem is jurong West are all pap supporters so even with good leecord of West coast, i think hard for psp to win.

I don't think so, although the PAP currently holds the majority with Tharman(left for MyPresident role) at the forefront, the opposition parties that contested previously were relatively weak, causing the middle-ground voters to swing towards the majority, as there was little incentive to support a likely loser. However, the situation is now different with a strong opposition led by the PSP, and these swing voters will likely make a more informed decision, casting

 

[NanoSpeed]

I don't think this will help in anyway.even ccs talked bad about sinkies but they still voted for him

That is not scandal.

 

[NanoSpeed]

I don't think so, although the PAP currently holds the majority with Tharman(left for MyPresident role) at the forefront, the opposition parties that contested previously were relatively weak, causing the middle-ground voters to swing towards the majority, as there was little incentive to support a likely loser. However, the situation is now different with a strong opposition led by the PSP, and these swing voters will likely make a more informed decision, casting

LMW is well-liked by middle voters. And Hazel fits that PAP female MP image, except she is not haolian talk big type.

 

[sbfuncle]

I don't think so, although the PAP currently holds the majority with Tharman(left for MyPresident role) at the forefront, the opposition parties that contested previously were relatively weak, causing the middle-ground voters to swing towards the majority, as there was little incentive to support a likely loser. However, the situation is now different with a strong opposition led by the PSP, and these swing voters will likely make a more informed decision, casting

How many % of wc-jw voters are from jw?
Is it 50-50?
Jurong GRC won 75% in 2020

I think likely jurong mostly will still vote pap and add west coast pap supporters so psp hard to win even putting their A team.

 

[ftan42]

The opposition needs to learn how to fight dirty. Dig up scandalous dirt on the pappies, release them at strategic timings.

When facing unfair tactics, it can be challenging for opposition parties to effectively counter them, as they often rely on the goodwill of the ruling party to operate fairly.

 

[ftan42]

How many % of wc-jw voters are from jw?
Is it 50-50?
Jurong GRC won 75% in 2020

I think likely jurong mostly will still vote pap and add west coast pap supporters so psp hard to win even putting their A team

comment before

taking the GE2020 result for these 2 GRC combined, papies has a majority win of 52.62% uphill task for psp to secure > half of the the 52.62% of the papies win
but Jurong GRC is led by Tharman, and contested by oppies, Red Dot United

 

[hbk75]

jurong all the poor gian png kia one. sure vote for vouchers.

 

[sbfuncle]

comment before

Then the numbers of voters instead of % in wc vs jw becomes a very critical factor to determine the winner.