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Actually what u mentioned is the TFR (Total Fertility Rate) not the birth rate. The TFR is basically a measurement of how many children that women in child bearing age produced. So, for example, they will look at the number of children produced by women in say 18-49 age group, and divide this by the total number of women in this age group. Ideally, the rate should be 2.1 children produced per 1 women in the age group.
THE REASON WHY THE NUMBER IS SO LOW IS THAT THE BASE NUMBER USED BY THE GOVT. IS WRONG. This is because on paper, there are x number of women aged 18-49 in Singapore. But in reality, many of these women are actually not living in singapore anymore. I am not sure whether the PAP is just stupid and did not realise this, or they know this, but use a bigger base number to scare peasants.
Let me illustrate by this example. The govt, knows all the female births in this age group as they are reported at birth at the various hospital and under the birth registry. They take the number of women in this age group that have died (under the Death registry), minus the 2 numbers and what you have is the number of living woman in this age group. This is the base number that they use. The problem is that many of these women do not reside in singapore anymore. They marry foreingners and move to the spouse's home country and give birth there. In other words, they start their families in other countries. Well, if these women do not register their children in singapore, than these births are not recorded. The number of singapore born women in this age group who are permanently overseas and had their children overseas are in the hundreds of thousands. Just sit down and write out a list of all the women u know in this age group that are overseas now, and have given birth there. U will be surprised and everyone knows a few women like this, i have known so many that have married angmo and what not and give birth overseas. Therefore, the number of children born in singapore is actually the number of children born to women who are still in singapore, and not to all women in this age group. If 20% of the women in this age group are not in singapore anymore, than really the number of births is for 80% of the women not 100% of the women in this age group. What the PAP needs is remove this women from the base number, but how to do that? These women do not renounce their citizenship, and how can the govt, track all of them? This is the issue I believe that is causing the number to be so low.
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