Joseph Little, global chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management, said while some parts of the economy have remained resilient thus far, the balance of risks "points to high recession risk now," with Europe lagging the U.S. but the macro trajectory generally "aligned."
"We are already in a mild profit recession, and corporate defaults have started to creep up too," Little said in the report seen by CNBC.
"The silver lining is that we expect high inflation to moderate relatively quickly. That will create an opportunity for policymakers to cut rates."
Despite the hawkish tone adopted by central bankers and the apparent stickiness of inflation, particularly at the core level, HSBC Asset Management expects the
U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before the end of 2023, with the
European Central Bank and the
Bank of England following suit next year.
The Fed paused its monetary tightening cycle at its June meeting, leaving its fed funds rate target range at between 5% and 5.25%, but signaled that two further hikes can be expected this year. Market pricing narrowly anticipates the fed funds rates to be a quarter percentage point higher in December of this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.