<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published January 24, 2009
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>No hongbaos from the stock market
By JAMIE LEE
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NOT today honey - market watchers do not foresee any Chinese New Year (CNY) rally this year as markets go limp amid the recession blues.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>MARKET WATCHERS' TAKE
Some say the CNY rally is outdated as the Singapore market has become a playground for both local retail investors and foreign institutions</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Some argue that the CNY rally is outdated as the Singapore market has become a playground for both local retail investors and foreign institutions.
As economy slumps possibly into historical lows, there has also been talk that massive job layoffs could come in after the CNY period, as it is seen as inauspicious to retrench workers before the new year.
The index has fallen nearly 4 per cent since the start of the Gregorian calendar year and has, over the last year, dived 41 per cent.
'The market is more driven by overseas funds now,' said UOB-Kay Hian dealing director Chan Tuck Sing, adding that global issues tend to overshadow the local events.
The CNY rally has its origins in the days when local investors received their bonuses just before the Chinese New Year and hence took the money to the markets, said Mr Chan. 'Over time, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy,' he added.
With the entrance of foreign players and as the timing of bonus payout changed, the notion of a CNY rally has also begun to fade, he said.
As one broker from a local bank told BT: 'I may have to come in (to work) on Chinese New Year. The ang mohs are still trading.'
DMG & Partners Securities dealing director Gabriel Yap noted that the rallies in the January months of 2006 and 2007 were follow-throughs from the previous year.
The index rose 9.6 per cent between the end of 2006 and Feb 21, 2007. CNY then fell on Feb 18.
CIMB-GK Securities chief executive Carol Fong said that over the last 10 years, there were one or two years when it did not happen.
'If I am a betting person, I would lay odds that this would be another year where we will not have one,' she told BT. 'There is just too much bad news coming out.'
The recent bear-market rally was induced by the 'Obama hope', Ms Fong said, and following the $20 billion Budget to help the economy, there aren't other good news to discount.
'What we have is daily news that things are getting worse, from a worsening GDP forecast . . . to property prices falling and dire predictions that we can expect steeper falls. COE prices have fallen across the board for all categories and you hear of layoffs happening every week.'
With the expected two quarters of weaker corporate earnings, Ms Fong said she is gunning for a better second half.
But if the Chinese horoscope provides any market insight, DMG's Mr Yap said that the year of the Ox could reward hard work, diligence and steadfastness.
'I would look to overweight companies where the CEOs are exceptionally hard-working, pay themselves modestly and work for shareholders interests.'
I work hard too! *zzzz*</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>No hongbaos from the stock market
By JAMIE LEE
<TABLE class=storyLinks cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD align=right width=20>
</TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>NOT today honey - market watchers do not foresee any Chinese New Year (CNY) rally this year as markets go limp amid the recession blues.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>MARKET WATCHERS' TAKESome say the CNY rally is outdated as the Singapore market has become a playground for both local retail investors and foreign institutions</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Some argue that the CNY rally is outdated as the Singapore market has become a playground for both local retail investors and foreign institutions.
As economy slumps possibly into historical lows, there has also been talk that massive job layoffs could come in after the CNY period, as it is seen as inauspicious to retrench workers before the new year.
The index has fallen nearly 4 per cent since the start of the Gregorian calendar year and has, over the last year, dived 41 per cent.
'The market is more driven by overseas funds now,' said UOB-Kay Hian dealing director Chan Tuck Sing, adding that global issues tend to overshadow the local events.
The CNY rally has its origins in the days when local investors received their bonuses just before the Chinese New Year and hence took the money to the markets, said Mr Chan. 'Over time, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy,' he added.
With the entrance of foreign players and as the timing of bonus payout changed, the notion of a CNY rally has also begun to fade, he said.
As one broker from a local bank told BT: 'I may have to come in (to work) on Chinese New Year. The ang mohs are still trading.'
DMG & Partners Securities dealing director Gabriel Yap noted that the rallies in the January months of 2006 and 2007 were follow-throughs from the previous year.
The index rose 9.6 per cent between the end of 2006 and Feb 21, 2007. CNY then fell on Feb 18.
CIMB-GK Securities chief executive Carol Fong said that over the last 10 years, there were one or two years when it did not happen.
'If I am a betting person, I would lay odds that this would be another year where we will not have one,' she told BT. 'There is just too much bad news coming out.'
The recent bear-market rally was induced by the 'Obama hope', Ms Fong said, and following the $20 billion Budget to help the economy, there aren't other good news to discount.
'What we have is daily news that things are getting worse, from a worsening GDP forecast . . . to property prices falling and dire predictions that we can expect steeper falls. COE prices have fallen across the board for all categories and you hear of layoffs happening every week.'
With the expected two quarters of weaker corporate earnings, Ms Fong said she is gunning for a better second half.
But if the Chinese horoscope provides any market insight, DMG's Mr Yap said that the year of the Ox could reward hard work, diligence and steadfastness.
'I would look to overweight companies where the CEOs are exceptionally hard-working, pay themselves modestly and work for shareholders interests.'
I work hard too! *zzzz*
