<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Top Print Edition Stories
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published November 18, 2009
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Momentum stalls as Oct exports plunge
Seasonally-adjusted 12.6% drop over Sept biggest since Dec 2002
By CHUANG PECK MING
<TABLE class=storyLinks border=0 cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD width=20 align=right>
</TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD width=20 align=right>
</TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD width=20 align=right>
</TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD colSpan=2><!-- AddThis Button BEGIN -->
<SCRIPT type=text/javascript src="http://s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js#pub=xa-4ae026ba0e05c08d"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT type=text/javascript> var addthis_config = { username: "xa-4ae026ba0e05c08d", services_compact: 'facebook, twitter, favorites, myspace, google, digg, live, delicious, stumbleupon, more', services_exclude: 'print', data_use_flash: false } </SCRIPT> <!-- AddThis Button END --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
(SINGAPORE) It's no wonder that Singapore's economic planners are unsure of the economic recovery - and wary of pulling back the stimulus measures.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>After two months of upward momentum - up 1.2 per cent in August and 2.9 per cent in September - Singapore's domestic exports minus oil (NODX) stumbled in October and fell sharply.
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=120 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width=200 align=left><TBODY><TR bgColor=#4e6e78><TD height=8 colSpan=2>[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Related article: </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d5e9f1><TD>
</TD><TD>[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-2]Click here for IE S'pore's news release[/SIZE][/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The seasonally-adjusted 12.6 per cent month-on- month drop was the biggest since December 2002.
On a brighter note, last month's NODX - a key leading indicator - posted a smaller decline from a year ago, keeping up with the year-on-year improvement made since January, when the NODX plunged by a record 35 per cent.
October's NODX fell 6.1 per cent from a year ago, easing from September's revised 7.3 per cent decrease, according to the latest trade figures released yesterday by International Enterprise Singapore.
Still, it was the 18th monthly decline in a row - and the improvement was a lot weaker than the market expected. Analysts were in fact looking to a 0.2 per cent upturn in October.
IE Singapore, which is the government's trade promotion arm, attributed the NODX's year-on-year drop last month to lower electronic and non-electronic domestic shipments.
Domestic electronic exports went down 13.8 per cent, slightly lower than the 14.4 per cent fall in September. The non-electronic exports slipped 0.5 per cent, after a 2.5 per cent dip in the previous month.
'It is beginning to look as though not everything in Singapore's garden is rosy right now,' said Robert Prior-Wandesford, senior Asian economist for HSBC in Singapore. 'It is most likely to prove a pause for breath after what has been an extremely rapid period of growth, but clearly the situation needs watching.'
Yet he also cautioned against taking the month-on-month tumble 'that seriously'. 'It may well be that we see a big rise in the following month,' he said.
Which was what happened in January 2003, when the NODX shot up 25.5 per cent following a 13.8 per cent monthly drop in December 2002, Mr Prior-Wandesforde noted.
Despite its caution, the government has raised the growth forecast for the economy to a 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent contraction for 2009, an improvement from the previously estimated 4 per cent to 6 per cent. This came after Singapore's gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 0.8 per cent from a year early.
But economists polled said Singapore may report a smaller 0.5 per cent rise in its Q3 GDP from a year earlier when it releases final estimates tomorrow.
Citigroup's Wei Zheng Kit sees the downside surprise in October's NODX signalling that GDP momentum will ease significantly in the fourth quarter.
But any weakness in the Q4 GDP is likely to be only temporary, as final demand in the US and Europe stabilises, he said.
The largest contributors to last month's year-on- year decline in the NODX were Europe, Indonesia and the United States. Shipments to these markets fell 22 per cent, 13 per cent and 11 per cent respectively, according to IE Singapore.
'Non-oil domestic exports to all of the top NODX markets, except Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, decreased year-on- year in October,' it said. [/FONT]
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published November 18, 2009
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Momentum stalls as Oct exports plunge
Seasonally-adjusted 12.6% drop over Sept biggest since Dec 2002
By CHUANG PECK MING
<TABLE class=storyLinks border=0 cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=1 width=136 align=right><TBODY><TR class=font10><TD width=20 align=right>
</TD><TD>Email this article</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD width=20 align=right>
</TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD width=20 align=right>
</TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR><TR class=font10><TD colSpan=2><!-- AddThis Button BEGIN -->
<SCRIPT type=text/javascript src="http://s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js#pub=xa-4ae026ba0e05c08d"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT type=text/javascript> var addthis_config = { username: "xa-4ae026ba0e05c08d", services_compact: 'facebook, twitter, favorites, myspace, google, digg, live, delicious, stumbleupon, more', services_exclude: 'print', data_use_flash: false } </SCRIPT> <!-- AddThis Button END --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>(SINGAPORE) It's no wonder that Singapore's economic planners are unsure of the economic recovery - and wary of pulling back the stimulus measures.
<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>After two months of upward momentum - up 1.2 per cent in August and 2.9 per cent in September - Singapore's domestic exports minus oil (NODX) stumbled in October and fell sharply.<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=120 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width=200 align=left><TBODY><TR bgColor=#4e6e78><TD height=8 colSpan=2>[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Related article: </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d5e9f1><TD>
On a brighter note, last month's NODX - a key leading indicator - posted a smaller decline from a year ago, keeping up with the year-on-year improvement made since January, when the NODX plunged by a record 35 per cent.
October's NODX fell 6.1 per cent from a year ago, easing from September's revised 7.3 per cent decrease, according to the latest trade figures released yesterday by International Enterprise Singapore.
Still, it was the 18th monthly decline in a row - and the improvement was a lot weaker than the market expected. Analysts were in fact looking to a 0.2 per cent upturn in October.
IE Singapore, which is the government's trade promotion arm, attributed the NODX's year-on-year drop last month to lower electronic and non-electronic domestic shipments.
Domestic electronic exports went down 13.8 per cent, slightly lower than the 14.4 per cent fall in September. The non-electronic exports slipped 0.5 per cent, after a 2.5 per cent dip in the previous month.
'It is beginning to look as though not everything in Singapore's garden is rosy right now,' said Robert Prior-Wandesford, senior Asian economist for HSBC in Singapore. 'It is most likely to prove a pause for breath after what has been an extremely rapid period of growth, but clearly the situation needs watching.'
Yet he also cautioned against taking the month-on-month tumble 'that seriously'. 'It may well be that we see a big rise in the following month,' he said.
Which was what happened in January 2003, when the NODX shot up 25.5 per cent following a 13.8 per cent monthly drop in December 2002, Mr Prior-Wandesforde noted.
Despite its caution, the government has raised the growth forecast for the economy to a 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent contraction for 2009, an improvement from the previously estimated 4 per cent to 6 per cent. This came after Singapore's gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 0.8 per cent from a year early.
But economists polled said Singapore may report a smaller 0.5 per cent rise in its Q3 GDP from a year earlier when it releases final estimates tomorrow.
Citigroup's Wei Zheng Kit sees the downside surprise in October's NODX signalling that GDP momentum will ease significantly in the fourth quarter.
But any weakness in the Q4 GDP is likely to be only temporary, as final demand in the US and Europe stabilises, he said.
The largest contributors to last month's year-on- year decline in the NODX were Europe, Indonesia and the United States. Shipments to these markets fell 22 per cent, 13 per cent and 11 per cent respectively, according to IE Singapore.
'Non-oil domestic exports to all of the top NODX markets, except Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, decreased year-on- year in October,' it said. [/FONT]
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
