USA Economics Analysis (copied from...)

[DOM the Clown]

U.S. Economic Analysis

15:06 US GOVTS: Treasury Budget Soars to Record $237.2 Bln in Oct Boston,
November 13. The Treasury Department reported a record high $237.2 bln deficit
for October 2008, more than 317% above the October 2007 deficit and 13% more
than the last four October deficits combined. The latest result was the largest
deficit for any month. The Reuters consensus was -$101.5 bln, while CBO
projected a $134 bln shortfall. The difference between the CBO's accounting and
the Treasury's accounting is with the TARP. The government disbursed its first
payments of $115 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program in concurrence
with the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.
Outlays rose 71.1% to a record high $402.0 bln in October. Aside from the
TARP disbursements, Treasury said that approximately $20 bln in outlays,
including social security payments and veterans benefits, were accelerated into
October from November because of calendar changes.
Receipts of $164.848 bln fell 7.5% compared to last year. It was the lowest
revenue haul for any October in the last four years and they tend to be lower in
refunding months (e.g., November, February, May and August). IFR expects the
monthly average of receipts in FY"09 to be 4.6% below the monthly average in
FY"08.
A few sobering calculations: Using the 317% rise in the Oct-Oct deficit as
a template for the full year would result in an FY"09 deficit of $1.9 tln, a
four-fold increase over the FY"08 deficit ($454.8 bln). Extrapolating the last
two full-year results yields an FY"09 deficit of $748.1 bln. We'll call those
the upper and lower bounds with a central tendency closer to $900 bln.
Total borrowing from the public in October was $494.505 bln, a 47% increase
over September's mammoth $334.887 bln in borrowing and more than all remaining
FY"08 months combined. Interest on the public debt was just $18.984 bln, some
14.9% lower than in October 2007, leaving this October's interest burden at 4.7%
compared to last October's interest burden of 9.5%. We expect interest expenses
to reach $457.97 bln in FY'2009 and that's based on today's low interest rate
environment.

 

[DOM the Clown]

13:32 US ECON: Import Prices Dn 4.7%; Largest decline Since Dec 1988 Boston,
November 14. Import prices in October plunged at the fastest pace since the
government began keeping records two decades ago as prices fell across the board
and oil imports posted their sharpest fall in more than five years, the Labor
Department said today.
Import prices fell 4.7% in October, sharper than the 4.2% drop expected by
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets.
Petroleum import prices in October tanked 16.7%, the sharpest fall since
April 2003. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.9%, the sharpest fall
since the government began records of non-oil imports in 1985. Non-fuel import
prices fell 0.8%, the largest monthly decline since 2001.
Overall import prices have still risen over the past 12 months, though at
6.7% pace through October, half the 13.6% yearly rise through September.
Food prices fell 1.6% in October, the largest decline since February 2006.
Industrial supplies and materials fell 11.0%, the steepest drop since April
2003.
Auto import prices rose a scant 0.1% for the month. Prices in September were
revised lower, dropping 3.3% in the month after the 3.0% decline first
published.