Chitchat [US election] Current model predictions

[Thick Face Black Heart]

05 November
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Current model predicts TRUMP TO WIN.

***

Best case scenario for Trump is to win 299 electoral votes.
Best case scenario for Clinton is to win 312 electoral votes (highly unlikely).

Most probable scenario is for Trump to win Florida, and take exactly 270 EVs by also taking North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona.

***

Critical swing states:

Florida: 29 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Pennsylvania: 20 EV (predicted winner: Clinton)
North Carolina: 15 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Ohio: 18 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Arizona: 11 EV (predicted winner: Trump)
Colorado: 9 EV (predicted winner: Clinton)

 

[flatearther]

Best case scenario for Trump is to win 299 electoral votes.
Best case scenario for Clinton is to win 312 electoral votes (highly unlikely).

Most probable scenario is for Trump to win Florida, and take exactly 270 EVs by also taking North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona.

May I ask, where did you get the above information from? I did a simple google search, and couldn't find any website that posted what you posted....
Or is the above just your own analysis and prediction?

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

May I ask, where did you get the above information from? I did a simple google search, and couldn't find any website that posted what you posted....
Or is the above just your own analysis and prediction?

I ranked the financial times list of swing states and adjusted for the assumption that major news outlets rig the polls in favour of Clinton to pander to her.

 

[mojito]

You worry too much. We grassroots are making preparations to celebtate a Clinton victory with caviar and fireworks.

 

[flatearther]

I ranked the financial times list of swing states and adjusted for the assumption that major news outlets rig the polls in favour of Clinton to pander to her.

Oh, I see, thanks.

 

[soikee]

Shocking revelations on crooked Hillary's corruption in Clinton's Foundation and her breach on National Security by using private email servers.

Nigger Hussein Obama, Justice Department & State Department are complicit in corrupt Hillary's crimes and that's is why she has not been indicted all these years.



[video=youtube;CJgan9I4hcY]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJgan9I4hcY[/video]

 

[soikee]

Even the left wing Chicago Tribune is calling for corrupt Hillary to step aside and let Tim Kaine to replace her. Continue reading:

 

[maxsanic]

I ranked the financial times list of swing states and adjusted for the assumption that major news outlets rig the polls in favour of Clinton to pander to her.

In short you arbitrarily changed the FT published results to show what you want to see. If there is more sophistication to your "current model", please enlighten us.

 

[JohnTan]

Grassroots leaders already booked tables to celebrate Clinton's victory. We also prepared cleaver and chopping board for those who bet on Trump to win. They will have to chop!!

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

In short you arbitrarily changed the FT published results to show what you want to see. If there is more sophistication to your "current model", please enlighten us.

I certainly don't wish to see Trump in office and i am not doing this arbitrary either.

For states that has Clinton lead at less than 2%, i assign them to Trump. Simple reason. Dem voters lack the enthusiasm and will have lower turnout. The poll ignores the turnout rate because no poll can take that into account.

In fact it is safe to say that if Rep turnout in record numbers, every news poll out there will be severely underestimating Trump's vote count.

Early voting numbers already confirm Dem's worst fears.

 

[maxsanic]

I certainly don't wish to see Trump in office and i am not doing this arbitrary either.

For states that has Clinton lead at less than 2%, i assign them to Trump. Simple reason. Dem voters lack the enthusiasm and will have lower turnout. The poll ignores the turnout rate because no poll can take that into account.

In fact it is safe to say that if Rep turnout in record numbers, every news poll out there will be severely underestimating Trump's vote count.

Early voting numbers already confirm Dem's worst fears.

What you are describing is as arbitrary as it can get. In short you simply declare that Hillary supporters will not turn up and Trump supporters will turn up in massive never seen before numbers. Then you assign states that show Hillary winning by a small margin to Trump and declare Trump has the required electoral votes to make president. Even if you are correct, it is extremely misleading in your opening to imply that such outputs are based on a "model". Where's the "model"? It's just kopitiam style postulation from you.

Where's the evidence from reputable sources that support this? RCP and 538 are non-partisan and they do not have any findings remotely close to what you are declaring, these reports are properly researched and backed by high level stochastic modelling - they are not perfect, but they cannot be brushed away by filler words like "safe to say" and "simple reason".

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

What you are describing is as arbitrary as it can get. In short you simply declare that Hillary supporters will not turn up and Trump supporters will turn up in massive never seen before numbers. Then you assign states that show Hillary winning by a small margin to Trump and declare Trump has the required electoral votes to make president. Even if you are correct, it is extremely misleading in your opening to imply that such outputs are based on a "model". Where's the "model"? It's just kopitiam style postulation from you.

Where's the evidence from reputable sources that support this? RCP and 538 are non-partisan and they do not have any findings remotely close to what you are declaring, these reports are properly researched and backed by high level stochastic modelling - they are not perfect, but they cannot be brushed away by filler words like "safe to say" and "simple reason".

Do you really think major news networks are so thorough?

What is their sampling methodology?

How do they deal with selection bias?

Is there evidence of nonstationarity in their time series data which could jeopardolize their validity?

What are their regression assumptions?

What is their margin of error?

What is the sample size and composition?

Brexit polls showed Leave as lagging behind 10 points
In the end, Leave won.

 

[Wunderfool]

I won't be surprised by a surprise win by Trump. It reminds me of Brexit. Everybody thinks the referendum will not get passed, but you know the story. Everybody thinks the other guy will not vote for Brexit, so they cast a 'I don't think my vote matters' vote for the Brexit. When they woke up to the reality, they all regretted and lamented, " I didn't know that this is what it means." Call it stupidity or apathy, but it is too late.

 

[Wunderfool]

Seriously, what do we make of it if Trump wins ?

What does it mean to the rest of the world ?

We know for sure, Trump will erect walls of protectionism, kill off any impending free trade agreements, stop immigrations of cheap foreign workers from Mexico, tax imports from China, India and the rest of SEA countries. He is planning to pull US forces out of countries outside of US, build up the US military and war arsenals for US supremacy in military power.

It is a scary thing to imagine what's the world looks like with a Trump 's win. He is isolating USA from the rest of the world.
It is no wonder Duterte decides to switch sides and suck up to China.

 

[soikee]

The Times of Israel


China's 'Monkey King' has picked Donald J Trump to be the next President of the US of A.

 

[maxsanic]

Do you really think major news networks are so thorough?

What is their sampling methodology?

How do they deal with selection bias?

Is there evidence of nonstationarity in their time series data which could jeopardolize their validity?

What are their regression assumptions?

What is their margin of error?

What is the sample size and composition?

Brexit polls showed Leave as lagging behind 10 points
In the end, Leave won.

Each statistical company has its own methodology to account for these variances. As with any forecasting, there is always room for error. Any student of statistics 101 knows that. Dumping a whole load of statistical jargon might impress an ignorant reader, but for people who know Math that's just stating the obvious.

Having said that, this is not an excuse for you to make big claims and just randomly declare everyone is biased against Trump and slot all the toss-ups and states which indicate Clinton holding a minor lead into Trump's pockets. Just because there are occasional times where forecasts were inaccurate is no justification for you to use your hotch potch kopitiam "model".

Rather than poking obvious "holes" inherent in any stochastic process that most people already know, how about you furnish some evidence of your kopitiam model? Give us something tangible on how you arrive at your anything 2% or less in favor of Clinton = Trump conclusion. Why 2%, not 1% or 3%? What's the rationale behind that? Why 2% of a FT list? For a RCP list is it still 2%? Or some other %? Why? Demonstrate some rigorousity in your thought process instead of spewing a list of terms that you googled off the net.

 

[Cosmos10]

Three states are at tipping points, latest polls by 538:

Nevada: Clinton 49.9%, Trump 50.1% (6 electoral votes)

Florida: Clinton 47.4%, Trump 52.6% (29 electoral votes)

N Carolina: Clinton 48.2%, Trump 51.8% (15 electoral votes)

Even if Trump wins these 3 tipping-point states, Clinton's chance of winning the presidency is 64.5%, Trump's chance is 35.5%

 

[Reddog]

Seriously, what do we make of it if Trump wins ?

What does it mean to the rest of the world ?

We know for sure, Trump will erect walls of protectionism, kill off any impending free trade agreements, stop immigrations of cheap foreign workers from Mexico, tax imports from China, India and the rest of SEA countries. He is planning to pull US forces out of countries outside of US, build up the US military and war arsenals for US supremacy in military power.

It is a scary thing to imagine what's the world looks like with a Trump 's win. He is isolating USA from the rest of the world.
It is no wonder Duterte decides to switch sides and suck up to China.

Dear Wunderful, pap and elites are really worried that Trump will win. It may be an existential problem for pap, MIWs or even zikapore as we know it. ASEAN countries are repositioning away from USA except Zikapore, which will be left holding the "Contain China" baby. Notice the deadly silence from pap viz-a-viz China /SCS ?

 

[eatshitndie]

majority of those who vote early via absentee or mail-in ballots are typically responsible, well-informed, well-read, fiscally conservative, civic-minded, patriotic americans who lean republican. we are always on time, ahead of others, well prepared, strategic in thinking and planning, and wealthy. and we can't be that stupid and implusive to line up last minute to vote as that kind of procrastinating behavior only applies to lazy, fat, irresponsible, always late, ill-planned, loser dems with nothing in the bank. too bad the % of these losers are exploding, in fact now at a tad over 69% from the last 2016 financial report on amount of cash savings in bank accounts. you can bet that half of these losers don't even vote as they can't get their fat arses off the couch.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Dear Wunderful, pap and elites are really worried that Trump will win. It may be an existential problem for pap, MIWs or even zikapore as we know it. ASEAN countries are repositioning away from USA except Zikapore, which will be left holding the "Contain China" baby. Notice the deadly silence from pap viz-a-viz China /SCS ?